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DK vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DK and MPC operate in the oil refining sector, but MPC's larger scale provides superior profitability with positive EPS (earnings per share) of $13.22 TTM versus DK's -$0.90 TTM.
- DK shares have surged over 260% in the past year amid recent earnings-driven rallies, outpacing the broader energy sector.
- MPC demonstrates stronger year-to-date gains of 52% and robust ROE (return on equity) at 24.19%, supported by analyst upgrades and dividend hikes.
- Recent market activity shows volatility in refining margins affecting both, with MPC benefiting from diversified midstream operations for stability.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight energy sector bots with annualized returns up to 93% in oil-related strategies, aiding comparative analysis.
Introduction
In the competitive oil refining sector, DK and MPC represent distinct scales of operation, making them pertinent for energy-focused traders and investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning. This comparison examines their business models, recent momentum, and sector dynamics amid fluctuating refining margins and crude oil prices. Traders seeking short-term opportunities or long-term stability in downstream energy stocks will find insights into sentiment shifts, financial metrics, and growth drivers, informed by current market data from sources like Yahoo Finance and company reports.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) is an integrated energy company engaged in refining, logistics, and crude oil transportation, operating refineries primarily in the Permian Basin region. In recent market activity, DK shares have shown significant volatility, trading around $46.73 with a 52-week range of $13.29 to $48.32 and year-to-date gains exceeding 59%. The stock experienced a sharp rally following Q1 2026 earnings, which reported a GAAP net loss but adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $211.7 million, alongside completion of the Big Spring acquisition. Sentiment has been influenced by refining margin pressures and strategic expansions, with analysts maintaining a Hold consensus and average price target near $49. Market cap stands at $2.86 billion, reflecting its mid-tier positioning.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading downstream energy firm with extensive refining capacity, retail marketing, and midstream operations across the U.S. Recently, MPC shares traded near $246, within a 52-week range of $140.36 to $255.77, posting year-to-date returns of 52% and one-year gains of 82%. Positive momentum stems from analyst upgrades, a $1.00 quarterly dividend declaration, and strong earnings outlook, with TTM EPS at $13.22 and ROE of 24.19%. Q1 anticipation builds on robust quarterly growth, bolstered by diversified revenue streams amid refining sector headwinds. With a $72.49 billion market cap, MPC enjoys a Strong Buy rating and average price target of $249.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both DK and MPC focus on refining crude into fuels, but MPC's larger scale (133B TTM revenue vs. 10.7B) enables better cost efficiencies and midstream diversification, reducing exposure to pure refining cycles. Growth drivers differ: DK pursues acquisitions like Big Spring for regional expansion, while MPC leverages national retail networks. Recent momentum favors DK's explosive 263% one-year surge versus MPC's steadier 82%, though MPC shows lower beta (0.53 vs. 0.66) for reduced volatility. Risk factors include high debt/equity for DK (1,125%) versus MPC (143%), and margin squeezes impacting profitability. Market sentiment tilts toward MPC via upgrades, contrasting DK's Hold rating.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI analysis currently leans toward MPC due to its trend consistency, higher profitability margins, substantial catalysts like dividend growth, and dominant relative positioning in the refining sector. While DK offers higher short-term momentum potential, MPC's scale and stability suggest greater probability of sustained outperformance in varying market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DK is a Hold and MPC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMPC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -11.90% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -6.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -6.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-6.63% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| DK | MPC | DK / MPC | |
| Capitalization | 2.54B | 70.9B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 730M | 12.4B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 41.534 | 50.685 | 82% |
| P/E Ratio | 93.07 | 15.99 | 582% |
| Revenue | 10.7B | 135B | 8% |
| Total Cash | 624M | 2.15B | 29% |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 34.3B | 9% |
DK | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 92 Overvalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (62) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (92). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (40). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DK (99). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (46). This means that DK’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for MPC (81). This means that DK’s stock grew significantly faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 80% | 18 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 73% |
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DK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DK has been closely correlated with PARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DK jumps, then PARR could also see price increases.