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DK vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DK has delivered substantially stronger year-to-date returns compared with MPC, reflecting greater price momentum in recent market activity.
- Both companies operate in the refining and marketing segment of the energy sector, exposing them to similar crude oil and product margin dynamics.
- DK is a smaller-scale operator focused on targeted efficiency initiatives, while MPC benefits from larger refining capacity and integrated midstream assets.
- Recent analyst activity has included multiple price target increases for DK amid operational updates, contrasting with more stable consensus views on MPC.
- Risk profiles differ, with DK exhibiting higher volatility and MPC offering greater scale-related stability.
- Market sentiment has favored DK’s recent performance trajectory over the steadier positioning of MPC.
Introduction
Delek US Holdings (DK) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are two publicly traded companies in the downstream energy space, primarily engaged in petroleum refining, transportation, and marketing. This comparison examines their relative performance, business characteristics, and positioning within the current market environment. The analysis is relevant for traders and investors seeking exposure to the refining sector, including those evaluating momentum-driven opportunities versus scale-based stability. It highlights observable differences in recent price behavior, operational scale, and external factors influencing each stock without providing investment recommendations.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) is an independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products, operating refining assets primarily in the U.S. South and Midwest. In recent weeks, DK shares have traded near multi-year highs, supported by strong year-to-date gains exceeding 130 percent as of late July 2026. Multiple analyst firms raised price targets during July amid updates on operational efficiency and capital allocation. First-quarter 2026 results showed a reported net loss alongside adjusted profitability metrics, with management highlighting progress on an enterprise optimization plan. Sentiment has been influenced by favorable refining margin trends and company-specific initiatives, contributing to elevated trading volumes and upward price momentum relative to broader energy benchmarks.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is one of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the United States, with extensive refining capacity, midstream logistics, and retail marketing operations. In recent market activity, MPC has exhibited more measured price movements compared with smaller peers, reflecting its scale and diversified asset base. The company maintains a consistent dividend policy and benefits from integrated operations that provide some buffer against refining margin volatility. Broader sector factors, including product demand and feedstock costs, have shaped performance, resulting in steadier returns relative to more volatile names in the space over the recent period.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DK and MPC share exposure to refining margins and energy demand cycles yet differ markedly in scale and execution. MPC operates a significantly larger refining footprint with integrated midstream assets that support more stable cash flows, while DK pursues targeted optimization to enhance returns on a smaller base. Recent momentum has favored DK, evidenced by outsized price appreciation and repeated analyst target upgrades, whereas MPC has delivered more moderate gains with lower volatility. Risk considerations include DK’s higher sensitivity to operational and margin fluctuations versus MPC’s greater resilience from diversification. Market sentiment currently reflects stronger short-term enthusiasm for DK’s trajectory, creating a trade-off between potential upside volatility and established scale.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including recent price trend consistency, analyst activity, and relative momentum, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to DK over MPC. This assessment draws from DK’s stronger recent performance profile and multiple positive catalysts noted in July, tempered by recognition that larger peers like MPC offer greater structural stability. Outcomes remain subject to evolving market conditions and sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DK is a Hold and MPC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMPC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +9.16% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +1.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +1.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +37.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+1.75% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| DK | MPC | DK / MPC | |
| Capitalization | 4.38B | 101B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 730M | 17.6B | 4% |
| Gain YTD | 144.842 | 124.379 | 116% |
| P/E Ratio | 19.47 | 12.51 | 156% |
| Revenue | 10.7B | 154B | 7% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 2.94B | - |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 34.3B | 9% |
DK | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 93 | 30 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 68 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 3 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (63) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (68). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (10). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (68) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (99). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (35). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (93). This means that DK’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 82% | 6 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 72% |
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.