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DK vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DK and MPC operate in U.S. refining and midstream energy, and both have posted outsized gains in recent market activity as refining margins and crack spreads strengthened.
- MPC is a far larger, more diversified operator with superior margin capture and a stronger balance sheet, while DK carries higher recent momentum and a government-backed expansion catalyst.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: MPC is the favored ticker in this comparison, reflecting its more consistent trend, diversified cash flows, and relative positioning within the sector.
- For additional context, explore DK Major News and DK Today's Price Move, as well as MPC Major News and MPC Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading systems are currently positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Delek US Holdings (DK) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) are two U.S.-listed energy companies that compete within the refining and marketing segment while also maintaining meaningful midstream exposure. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating how scale, diversification, momentum, and capital-allocation strategy shape relative performance in a cyclical sector. Although both names operate in the same industry and have benefited from similar macro tailwinds, their business profiles, balance sheets, and growth drivers differ considerably. Readers comparing these tickers may include energy-sector specialists, value-oriented investors, and momentum traders seeking to understand which company offers the more consistent risk-reward profile in the current market environment.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings (DK) is a diversified downstream and midstream energy company with four refineries across Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, representing roughly 302,000 barrels per day of combined nameplate crude throughput capacity. The company also holds a controlling interest in Delek Logistics Partners, a master limited partnership (MLP) focused on midstream energy infrastructure in the Permian Basin.
In recent market activity, DK has been one of the stronger performers in its sub-industry, outpacing both its refining peers and the broader energy sector over several months. The rally has been supported by sharply stronger refining margins, higher distillate and jet-fuel yields, and improved reliability following the completion of the Big Spring refinery turnaround. Sentiment has also been lifted by government-backed support for an expansion of the company's Tyler, Texas refinery under the Defense Production Act, as well as Small Refinery Exemptions that reduce renewable fuel obligations. These catalysts, together with a rapidly rising earnings outlook, have driven notable upward estimate revisions in recent weeks.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is one of the largest refiners in the United States, operating approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity across a geographically diversified system. The company also owns a significant stake in MPLX LP, one of North America's largest midstream operators, providing a steadier, fee-based cash-flow stream that helps offset refining volatility.
In recent market activity, MPC has posted substantial gains and repeatedly reached new highs, supported by stronger refining margins, high capacity utilization, and disciplined operational execution. The company reported a refining and marketing margin capture rate above 110% in its most recent quarter, alongside its lowest unplanned downtime in a decade. Shareholder returns have also been a central theme, including a recent 10% dividend increase and significant share repurchases. These factors have reinforced investor confidence, although the stock's extended run has prompted debate over how much of the improved earnings outlook is already reflected in its valuation.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection of AI trading bots chosen for their suitability to current market conditions. While Tickeron offers hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, only the most relevant and best-performing systems earn a place in this focused section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they trade, giving traders the ability to align automated systems with their own objectives and risk tolerance. For investors following energy names like DK and MPC, exploring Trending AI Robots can offer a data-driven perspective on how algorithmic strategies are currently positioned across the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most visible contrast between these two companies is scale. MPC operates roughly ten times the refining capacity of DK, which translates into a more diversified asset base and greater ability to absorb regional or operational disruptions. On growth drivers, DK leans more heavily on a government-supported refinery expansion and its Enterprise Optimization Plan, while MPC relies on margin-capture improvements, high-return refinery projects, and continued MPLX growth.
Recent momentum has favored DK, which has outperformed over shorter windows as its earnings estimates climbed at a faster rate. However, MPC offers comparatively stronger stability, a lower forward earnings multiple, and a more robust balance sheet. From a risk perspective, DK carries greater exposure to execution risk tied to expansion and policy-related factors, whereas MPC faces the broader challenge of sustaining margins after a sharp rally. Sector exposure is similar, but the mix of refining versus midstream cash flows differs meaningfully between the two names.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MPC in this comparison. The company's larger scale, more diversified cash-flow base, superior margin capture, and stronger balance sheet point toward greater trend consistency and stability relative to DK. While DK has demonstrated stronger recent momentum and a compelling catalyst pipeline, its profile carries higher execution risk and greater sensitivity to policy-related developments. In probabilistic terms, MPC currently presents the more resilient relative positioning across the factors typically emphasized by AI-driven trend analysis, even as both stocks remain exposed to the cyclical swings of refining margins.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DK is a Buy and MPC is a StrongBuy.
DK in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
DK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 35 of 39 cases where DK's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 34 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 55 cases where DK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +9.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DK advanced for three days, in 251 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DK as a result. In 51 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DK turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 59 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
DK moved below its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for DK entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 42, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (20.996) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (17.521) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.140) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.397) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
MPC's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for MPC moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 51 cases where MPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +5.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 298 of 381 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
MPC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 267 of 351 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 42 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
MPC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MPC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 42, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.487) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (12.902) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
DK | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 85 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (85) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (93). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (10). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's SMR Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (21). This means that DK’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (43). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (85). This means that DK’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 80% | 8 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MPC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +9.98% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +9.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +4.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Mar 02, 2027.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+4.86% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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DK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DK has been closely correlated with PARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DK jumps, then PARR could also see price increases.
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
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