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DK vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DK is a smaller, more leveraged downstream and midstream operator, while MPC is one of the largest U.S. refiners with substantial scale and liquidity.
- Both stocks have rallied sharply on a stronger refining-margin environment, but MPC has posted the larger absolute move over the year-to-date period.
- MPC offers greater balance-sheet strength and capital-return capacity, while DK carries higher financial leverage and a more concentrated refining footprint.
- DK combines refining with a growing midstream platform through DKL, while MPC benefits from scale, operational reliability, and cash flow from MPLX.
- Relative performance, earnings-momentum, and margin capture are key differentiators when evaluating the two names.
Introduction
Investors tracking the U.S. refining and marketing sector frequently weigh DK against MPC, two companies that share downstream energy exposure but operate at very different scales. This stock comparison is relevant to traders assessing relative performance and momentum, as well as longer-term investors evaluating balance-sheet quality, cash returns, and diversification across refining and midstream assets. Because both names are highly sensitive to crack spreads, crude differentials, and product demand, understanding their distinct market positioning helps clarify which may align better with a given risk profile in the current market environment.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings is a diversified downstream energy company with refining, logistics, and renewable fuels operations, plus a controlling stake in midstream master limited partnership DKL. Its refineries in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana provide roughly 302,000 barrels per day of combined crude throughput capacity. In recent weeks, the stock has been among the sector's stronger performers, supported by sharply improved refining margins, higher distillate and jet fuel yields, and progress on its Enterprise Optimization Plan (EOP), which targets at least $220 million of annual free-cash-flow improvement.
Recent market activity has been shaped by strengthening crack spreads, improved reliability at its Big Spring refinery, and favorable regulatory developments around small refinery exemptions. Analysts have revised earnings estimates materially higher, reflecting an improving margin environment. However, DK also carries a higher debt load and a more concentrated asset base, which can amplify both upside and downside relative to larger peers.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is one of the largest U.S. refiners, with a nationwide system processing nearly 3 million barrels per day across Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions, alongside majority ownership of midstream operator MPLX. In recent weeks, MPC has continued to build on a strong year, reporting elevated refining capture rates, near-record utilization on the Gulf Coast, and the lowest unplanned downtime in a decade. Its Refining & Marketing (R&M) segment has benefited from robust clean-product margins and advantaged crude sourcing.
The company has also leaned into shareholder returns, returning billions of dollars through repurchases and raising its buyback authorization. Geopolitical disruptions that tightened global product markets have supported margins, while its scale, liquidity, and diversified feedstock access have reinforced relative positioning. This combination of operational execution and financial flexibility has underpinned a substantial rally in the shares.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two is scale. MPC operates a national refining network with roughly ten times the crude throughput of DK, giving it broader geographic and feedstock diversification. MPC also holds a stronger balance sheet, with significant consolidated cash and untapped credit capacity, whereas DK carries a more leveraged capital structure that increases sensitivity to margin swings.
On growth drivers, both benefit from tightening product markets and elevated crack spreads. MPC adds high-return yield-improvement projects and a large, growing midstream cash-flow stream through MPLX. DK leans more heavily on its EOP cost and margin initiatives and a smaller, fast-growing logistics business through DKL. From a momentum standpoint, both names have rallied strongly, though DK's percentage gains have at times outpaced peers on a shorter horizon, reflecting its higher operating leverage. Risk factors differ too: DK faces concentration and leverage risk, while MPC's elevated valuation after a large run is a point of debate among analysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative stability, margin capture, and balance-sheet positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MPC for its more durable combination of scale, operational reliability, and capital-return capacity. DK's improving earnings momentum and higher beta may appeal to tactical traders, but its leverage and concentration introduce greater variability. In probabilistic terms, MPC's steadier trend profile and financial flexibility suggest a more consistent setup, while DK remains a higher-reward, higher-risk alternative tied closely to the continuation of favorable refining conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DK is a Buy and MPC is a StrongBuy.
DK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
DK moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +4.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DK advanced for three days, in 248 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
DK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 202 of 252 cases where DK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DK moved out of overbought territory on September 18, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 77%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 53 of 65 cases where DK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DK as a result. In 59 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DK turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 59 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (25.681) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (21.430) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.140) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.397) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
Aroon Indicator for MPC shows an upward move is likely
MPC's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 348 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 269 of the 348 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MPC moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 64%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 57 cases where MPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 49 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
MPC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.889) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (16.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
DK | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 90 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 1 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (87) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (94). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (7). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's SMR Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (21). This means that DK’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DK (35). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than DK’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (83). This means that DK’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 9 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while MPC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -1.42% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -3.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +38.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-3.30% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
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