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MSCI vs NDAQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MSCI Inc. (MSCI) vs. Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MSCI delivered double-digit revenue growth and its 11th straight year of double-digit adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth, driven by record index-related asset-based fees.
- NDAQ crossed $5 billion in annual net revenue for the first time, with high-margin Solutions now representing roughly 76–77% of revenue.
- The two companies occupy different niches: MSCI is an index and analytics provider, while Nasdaq blends exchange operations, market technology, and financial-crime software.
- Both stocks carry Buy or Moderate Buy consensus ratings, but MSCI commands a higher valuation and richer growth profile in recurring subscription revenue.
- Nasdaq's diversification into recurring software revenue narrows the valuation gap but leaves it more exposed to trading-volume cycles.
- Recent momentum favors both names, though their risk profiles and catalysts differ meaningfully.
Introduction
Investors evaluating financial-data and market-infrastructure companies often weigh MSCI against NDAQ, two firms that profit from the machinery of global markets in distinct ways. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent relative performance, and market positioning to help traders and long-term investors understand the trade-offs between a pure-play index and analytics franchise and a diversified exchange-and-software operator. With both companies reporting strong full-year results in recent weeks, the comparison is timely for readers seeking to assess momentum, durability, and risk across two of the financial sector's most recognized names.
MSCI Overview and Recent Performance
MSCI (MSCI Inc.) provides indexes, portfolio analytics, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and climate tools used by asset managers, pension funds, and other institutional investors. Its equity indexes serve as benchmarks for trillions of dollars in assets, and its franchise earns a blend of recurring subscription revenue and asset-based fees tied to ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and other funds linked to its indexes.
In recent market activity, MSCI reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.66, ahead of consensus, on operating revenue of $822.5 million, up 10.6% year over year. Asset-based fees in its index segment climbed 20.7%, reflecting record inflows into index-linked ETF products, while the company's total run rate reached about $3.3 billion, up 13%. Retention remained strong at 93.4%, and management highlighted its 11th consecutive year of double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Analysts responded with multiple price-target increases, with the consensus rating near Moderate Buy and targets clustering in the mid-to-high $600s.
NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
NDAQ (Nasdaq, Inc.) operates a global exchange, an index business, and a growing financial-technology division spanning market technology, regulatory technology, and financial-crime management software. The company has deliberately shifted its mix toward recurring Solutions revenue, which now accounts for roughly three-quarters of total net revenue.
In its most recent quarter, Nasdaq reported net revenue of $1.4 billion, up 13% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $0.96, up 27%. Full-year net revenue reached $5.2 billion, up 12%, surpassing $5 billion for the first time, while Solutions revenue exceeded $4 billion. Market Services, its transaction-based segment, grew 16% on elevated U.S. equity and options volumes, and its financial-crime management technology business expanded about 22% for the year. The company also recorded $99 billion in index net inflows and ended the year with $882 billion in exchange-traded product AUM (assets under management).
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two is business model. MSCI is a relatively focused, asset-light index and analytics provider with exceptional margins (adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 62% in the recent quarter) and a large base of sticky, recurring subscription revenue. Its growth is closely tied to the secular rise of index and ETF investing, and its asset-based fees add market-sensitive upside.
NDAQ is more diversified, spanning exchange trading, listings, data, indexes, and financial-crime and regulatory software. This mix gives it multiple growth drivers but also leaves part of its revenue tied to trading volumes, which can fluctuate with market conditions. Nasdaq's shift toward recurring Solutions revenue has improved earnings visibility, and its financial-crime franchise (anchored by the Verafin and Adenza businesses) adds a differentiated growth engine.
On valuation and momentum, MSCI generally trades at a premium, reflecting its higher-margin, subscription-heavy model, while Nasdaq offers broader diversification and a somewhat lower multiple. Both benefit from favorable market-structure trends, but MSCI carries concentration risk in index-linked products, whereas Nasdaq carries integration and execution risk around its recent acquisitions and expansion into new software categories.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward the name showing more consistent trend strength and clearer near-term catalysts. MSCI's record index inflows, double-digit run-rate growth, and resilient retention suggest a stable, high-quality growth trajectory that algorithmic systems tend to reward. Nasdaq's accelerating Solutions mix and strong financial-crime momentum are compelling, but its residual exposure to volume-driven trading revenue introduces slightly more variability. Accordingly, the AI framework would likely express a modest preference for MSCI on trend consistency and earnings quality, while acknowledging that NDAQ remains a strong candidate on a diversified-growth basis. This is a probabilistic assessment, not a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MSCI is a Buy and NDAQ is a Buy.
MSCI sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for MSCI moved above the 200-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MSCI as a result. In 55 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MSCI just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where MSCI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
MSCI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MSCI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +5.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSCI advanced for three days, in 176 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 82 of 151 cases where MSCI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MSCI moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 64%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSCI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
MSCI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MSCI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MSCI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MSCI's P/B Ratio (-17.327) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (4.143). P/E Ratio (34.990) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.659). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.845) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. MSCI's P/S Ratio (12.048) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).
NDAQ's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 50 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
NDAQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 224 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 340 cases where NDAQ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NDAQ moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 60 cases where NDAQ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
NDAQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.995) is normal, around the industry mean (4.143). P/E Ratio (30.960) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.659). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
MSCI | NDAQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 16 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NDAQ's Valuation (88) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MSCI (93) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to MSCI’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MSCI (79) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than MSCI’s over the last 12 months.
MSCI's SMR Rating (7) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NDAQ (52) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MSCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (16) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MSCI (25) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to MSCI’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MSCI (53) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to MSCI’s over the last 12 months.
| MSCI | NDAQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 58% | 8 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 27 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MSCI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NDAQ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MSCI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MSCI’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NDAQ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MSCI’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MSCI (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +2.83% price change this week, while NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +0.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +1.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
MSCI is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+1.51% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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MSCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MSCI has been closely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MSCI jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MSCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI | 100% | -2.27% | ||
| SPGI - MSCI | 74% Closely correlated | -0.98% | ||
| MCO - MSCI | 73% Closely correlated | -1.88% | ||
| NDAQ - MSCI | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| MORN - MSCI | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.22% | ||
| FDS - MSCI | 57% Loosely correlated | -3.69% | ||
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