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ONB vs WBS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old National Bancorp (ONB) vs. Webster Financial Corporation (WBS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- WBS has outperformed ONB year-to-date with a 14.72% gain compared to 5.36%, driven by merger developments.
- ONB beat Q1 2026 EPS estimates with strong loan growth in recent earnings, while WBS earnings are upcoming on April 28.
- Both stocks offer comparable dividend yields around 2.3-2.5%, with ONB at a lower beta of 0.83 versus WBS's 1.03, signaling reduced volatility.
- ONB shows an upward trend per Tickeron AI with recent moving average crossovers, while WBS benefits from a pending merger with Banco Santander.
- Market caps differ with WBS at $11.6B larger than ONB's $9B, reflecting scale advantages.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ONB and WBS, two regional banks navigating interest rate dynamics and sector headwinds. Investors seeking exposure to financial services, particularly those evaluating relative performance in a stabilizing banking environment, may find value in contrasting their recent trajectories. With both exhibiting resilience amid broader regional bank pressures on net interest income (NII, revenue from interest-earning assets minus interest expenses), this analysis highlights key metrics, momentum, and catalysts for informed market positioning.
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
Old National Bancorp (ONB) operates as a Midwest-focused regional bank offering commercial, retail, and wealth management services. In recent market activity, shares traded around $23.36, within a 52-week range of $19.39-$26.17. Year-to-date gains stand at 5.36%, reflecting steady performance despite sector volatility. Q1 2026 earnings highlighted record results with adjusted EPS of $0.61 beating estimates, fueled by 46% year-over-year revenue growth and robust loan expansion, though revenue slightly missed expectations. Analysts responded positively, with firms like Keefe Bruyette raising price targets. Sentiment has been supported by lower beta (0.83) and ROE (return on equity, ttm) of 10.08%, amid stabilizing deposit trends.
WBS Overview and Recent Performance
Webster Financial Corporation (WBS) provides banking and financial services primarily in the Northeast. Shares recently hovered near $71.81, in a 52-week range of $45.94-$74.00, with stronger year-to-date returns of 14.72%. Recent weeks have seen momentum from an ongoing merger agreement with Banco Santander, valuing shares at a premium and trading at a discount to the $75.59 deal price, pending regulatory approval expected in H2 2026. Q4 2025 results showed EPS beats and loan growth to $56.6B, with Q1 2026 earnings slated for April 28. Higher beta (1.03) reflects volatility, balanced by ROE of 10.77% and projected 5-7% loan expansion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ONB and WBS follow similar regional banking models, emphasizing commercial lending and deposits amid slowing NII growth sector-wide. ONB edges in stability with lower beta and recent EPS beats, while WBS offers growth via merger synergies projected at $800M by 2028. Momentum favors WBS on YTD returns, but ONB shows better forward P/E (8.91 vs. 10.89). Risks include regulatory hurdles for WBS and credit pressures for both; sentiment leans positive on ONB's earnings and analyst upgrades versus WBS's deal discount trading.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors WBS due to stronger relative momentum, merger-driven catalysts, and higher year-to-date positioning, despite elevated volatility. ONB offers stability with upward trends and earnings strength, but WBS shows greater upside probability in prevailing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ONB is a Buy and WBS is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ONB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileWBS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ONB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WBS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ONB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WBS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WBS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ONB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.01% price change this week, while WBS (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
WBS is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| ONB | WBS | ONB / WBS | |
| Capitalization | 9.79B | 12.3B | 80% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 13.483 | 21.923 | 62% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.89 | 12.48 | 103% |
| Revenue | 2.74B | 2.92B | 94% |
| Total Cash | 537M | 353M | 152% |
| Total Debt | 7.36B | 5.55B | 133% |
ONB | WBS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 61 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONB's Valuation (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WBS (61) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to WBS’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WBS (47) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to WBS’s over the last 12 months.
WBS's SMR Rating (15) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (16) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that WBS’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
WBS's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (46) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that WBS’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
WBS's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (47) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that WBS’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
| ONB | WBS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 59% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 48% |
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ONB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB | 100% | +0.85% | ||
| ASB - ONB | 91% Closely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| FNB - ONB | 90% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| ZION - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| FULT - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +0.66% | ||
| UMBF - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +2.92% | ||
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