Investors screening the semiconductor equipment space often encounter these three names together, since each supplies the tools chipmakers use to build increasingly complex devices. This stock comparison weighs Applied Materials, Nova, and Onto Innovation across business model, growth drivers, recent momentum, and risk. The comparison is especially relevant for traders and investors seeking exposure to the artificial intelligence (AI) capital-expenditure cycle through companies at different points on the scale-and-specialization spectrum. Understanding how a diversified equipment giant differs from two metrology and inspection pure-plays can clarify where relative performance and market positioning may diverge in the current environment.
Applied Materials is the largest of the three, providing materials-engineering equipment, services, and software used across semiconductor fabrication. In its most recent fiscal quarter, AMAT reported record revenue of about $9.12 billion, up roughly 25% year over year, alongside record non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS). The company also unveiled a multi-billion-dollar research and development facility, the EPIC Center, and expanded collaborations around advanced logic, memory, and packaging. Despite these fundamentals, recent market activity has been volatile: shares declined sharply over recent weeks after an investor presentation that did not provide a specific WFE spending forecast. Analysts have largely maintained positive ratings, but the pullback highlights how valuation and visibility, rather than earnings alone, now drive near-term sentiment.
Nova Ltd. is an Israel-based provider of optical, materials, and chemical metrology tools used for process control in semiconductor manufacturing. The company has posted a series of record quarters, with second-quarter revenue of approximately $254.9 million and continued market-share gains in film and critical-dimension metrology. NVMI has benefited from rising demand for advanced DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) and logic nodes, supported by a diversified customer base across four customers and five geographic regions. Even so, the stock has pulled back in recent weeks, down roughly double digits over the past month. That retreat reflects broader sector-wide selling pressure rather than any reported deterioration in the company's order trends or guidance, which management has continued to raise.
Onto Innovation supplies process-control, inspection, and metrology systems used in advanced packaging and leading-edge chip production. The company reported record quarterly revenue of about $343 million in its most recent quarter, up roughly 35% year over year, and ended the period with a backlog above $1.1 billion. ONTO has been the strongest relative performer of the three over the trailing twelve months, driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging inspection through its Dragonfly and Atlas platforms. Management raised its full-year advanced-packaging growth outlook to roughly 80% and announced a strategic stake in X-ray technology provider Rigaku Holdings. Like its peers, however, the stock has given back gains in recent weeks as investors reassess semiconductor-equipment valuations.
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The clearest contrast among these three is scale and diversification. AMAT spans deposition, etch, metrology, inspection, packaging, and services, giving it a broader revenue base but also greater sensitivity to overall WFE spending cycles. NVMI and ONTO are more concentrated in process control, where rising chip complexity and AI packaging increase metrology and inspection intensity. On growth, ONTO is expanding fastest, with advanced packaging and HBM as primary catalysts, while NVMI grows from a smaller base with strong share gains. Risk profiles differ as well: AMAT carries customer-concentration and China-related trade exposure; NVMI is subject to Israeli geopolitical and single-facility manufacturing risks; and ONTO faces tariff and input-cost pressures plus integration execution around its Rigaku investment. All three trade at elevated valuations, making each sensitive to any cooling in AI capital expenditure.
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ONTO for trend consistency and catalyst strength, given its record revenue, expanding backlog, and raised advanced-packaging outlook. The relative positioning is nuanced: AMAT offers scale and diversification but faces near-term visibility concerns, while NVMI shows steady execution and share gains on a smaller base. In probabilistic terms, ONTO currently presents the most clearly aligned combination of momentum, growth catalysts, and stable forward guidance among the three.
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The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMAT advanced for three days, in 251 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
AMAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMAT as a result. In 66 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMAT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
AMAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMAT entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.631) is normal, around the industry mean (6.371). P/E Ratio (32.156) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.967) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.764) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for NVMI's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Following a +3.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVMI advanced for three days, in 248 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
NVMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 196 of 271 cases where NVMI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVMI as a result. In 65 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVMI turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
NVMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.732) is normal, around the industry mean (6.371). P/E Ratio (36.020) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.300) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NVMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
ONTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 35 cases where ONTO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONTO advanced for three days, in 267 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 187 of 227 cases where ONTO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ONTO as a result. In 77 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ONTO turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 77%.
ONTO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ONTO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONTO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ONTO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.071) is normal, around the industry mean (6.371). P/E Ratio (74.408) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.817) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.787) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
AMAT | NVMI | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 76 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 59 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 45 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 77 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 64 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (70) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as AMAT (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as ONTO (82) in the null industry. This means that NVMI's stock grew similarly to AMAT’s and similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (58) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (59) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as ONTO (59) in the null industry. This means that AMAT's stock grew similarly to NVMI’s and similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVMI (45) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that AMAT's stock grew similarly to NVMI’s and somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (63) in the null industry, and is in the same range as NVMI (77) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that AMAT's stock grew similarly to ONTO’s and similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the null industry is in the same range as AMAT (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for NVMI (64) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO's stock grew similarly to AMAT’s and somewhat faster than NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | NVMI | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 77% | 21 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 72% | 7 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 82% |
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NVMI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and ONTO’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and ONTO’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -12.66% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -5.86% , and ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price fluctuated -14.35% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -10.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -23.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -33.54%.
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | -6.37% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 84% Closely correlated | -11.76% | ||
| ONTO - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | -10.57% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 81% Closely correlated | -8.16% | ||
| ASML - NVMI | 79% Closely correlated | -6.93% | ||
| ENTG - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -13.12% | ||
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | -10.57% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 84% Closely correlated | -8.16% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 83% Closely correlated | -11.76% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 82% Closely correlated | -9.55% | ||
| NVMI - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | -6.37% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 80% Closely correlated | -13.12% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| TECS | 63.26 | 5.74 | +9.98% |
| Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X ETF (TECS) | |||
| VCIT | 79.47 | 0.68 | +0.86% |
| Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) | |||
| BBAG | 44.53 | 0.37 | +0.84% |
| JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (BBAG) | |||
| INDE | 28.56 | -0.11 | -0.37% |
| Matthews India Active ETF (INDE) | |||
| FDLS | 41.04 | -0.70 | -1.68% |
| Inspire Fidelis Multi Factor ETF (FDLS) | |||