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CMS or DUK or SO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) vs. Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) vs. The Southern Company (SO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three utilities reported strong Q1 2026 earnings beats, with CMS at $1.13 adjusted EPS, DUK at $1.93, and SO at $1.32, reaffirming full-year guidance amid rising power demand.
- Year-to-date performance shows SO leading at ~11%, followed by DUK and CMS at ~9-10%, driven by data center growth and renewable investments.
- Dividend yields are attractive across the board: CMS 3.04%, DUK 3.33%, SO 3.20%, with SO marking 25 years of increases.
- DUK offers the largest scale with ~$99B market cap, while SO (~$108B) and CMS (~$23B) show balanced P/E ratios around 20-24.
- Recent momentum favors data center exposure, benefiting all but highlighting SO's 42% surge in usage.
- Relative stability in regulated operations positions them well in volatile markets, with AI models eyeing trend consistency.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines CMS Energy Corporation, Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), and The Southern Company (SO), three leading regulated electric utilities navigating heightened demand from data centers and electrification trends. Investors seeking defensive income with growth potential, such as dividend-focused portfolios or those hedging broader market volatility, will find value in their relative performance, valuation metrics, and sector exposure. Recent quarterly results underscore resilient earnings amid weather variability and capital-intensive clean energy shifts, offering insights into market positioning for traders monitoring utility sector momentum.
CMS Overview and Recent Performance
CMS Energy Corporation, headquartered in Jackson, Michigan, primarily operates through its subsidiary Consumers Energy, serving 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers across residential, commercial, and industrial segments. The company focuses on regulated electric and gas utilities alongside NorthStar Clean Energy for renewables. In recent market activity, CMS shares traded around $75, reflecting year-to-date gains of approximately 9-10%. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.13 beat estimates, with revenue up 11.6% year-over-year, driven by rate relief and load growth despite weather headwinds. The firm reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $3.83-$3.90, targeting 6-8% long-term growth, bolstered by regulatory support and renewable investments. Sentiment has improved on robust data center pipeline and capital expenditure hikes, though elevated debt levels warrant monitoring.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), based in Charlotte, North Carolina, is a Fortune 150 energy holding company serving 8.7 million electric customers across six states via Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, and Gas Utilities segments. Recent weeks saw DUK shares near $128, with YTD returns around 9%. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS reached $1.93, exceeding forecasts by 7.8%, alongside $9.18 billion in revenue, up 11% year-over-year from weather and rate hikes. Full-year EPS guidance of $6.55-$6.80 was confirmed, with over $5 billion in customer savings initiatives and a $103 billion capital plan fueling optimism. Performance reflects strong execution in grid upgrades and data center demand, tempered by interest rate sensitivity and regulatory reviews.
SO Overview and Recent Performance
The Southern Company (SO), Atlanta-based, delivers electricity to 9 million customers in the Southeast through traditional operating companies, Southern Power, and gas operations. Shares hovered at $96, posting top YTD gains of ~11%. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.32 topped expectations, with revenues climbing 8% to $8.4 billion, propelled by a 42% data center usage surge and 2.3% retail sales growth. The company extended its 25-year dividend hike streak to $0.76 quarterly. Momentum stems from clean energy pivots and DOE loans, though regulatory risks in Georgia and dam safety concerns influence sentiment. Broader electrification trends support durable positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CMS, DUK, and SO share regulated utility models emphasizing stable cash flows from electric and gas distribution, but differ in scale and growth drivers. DUK leads in market cap (~$99B) and EBITDA ($17.1B), with expansive multi-state operations, while SO (~$108B) excels in data center exposure (42% usage growth) versus CMS's Michigan focus (~$23B cap). Recent momentum favors SO on YTD gains, but DUK shows superior revenue scale ($32.2B). P/E ratios cluster at 20-24, with DUK lowest (20.2), implying relative value amid higher debt ($91B vs. SO's $76B). Risks include rate sensitivity and capex funding; trade-offs pit CMS's nimble renewables against peers' broader diversification and sentiment tied to AI-driven loads.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor DUK for its trend consistency, largest operational scale, and earnings beat magnitude, positioning it strongly amid utility sector tailwinds like data center demand. With reaffirmed guidance, superior EBITDA, and attractive valuation, it shows higher probability of outperformance relative to peers, though all three exhibit stability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileDUK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and SO’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DUK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMS’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DUK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and SO’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- DUK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMS (@Electric Utilities) experienced а -1.45% price change this week, while DUK (@Electric Utilities) price change was -0.80% , and SO (@Electric Utilities) price fluctuated +1.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was -0.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMS is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
DUK is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
SO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (-0.80% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
| CMS | DUK | SO | |
| Capitalization | 22.6B | 97.1B | 106B |
| EBITDA | 3.4B | 17.6B | 14.5B |
| Gain YTD | 6.438 | 8.102 | 9.708 |
| P/E Ratio | 20.28 | 19.16 | 24.08 |
| Revenue | 8.82B | 33.2B | 30.2B |
| Total Cash | 175M | 688M | N/A |
| Total Debt | 19.1B | 90.9B | 76B |
CMS | DUK | SO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 57 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 54 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 29 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 70 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 58 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 50 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DUK's Valuation (54) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as SO (64) and is in the same range as CMS (65). This means that DUK's stock grew similarly to SO’s and similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
SO's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (29) and is in the same range as CMS (50). This means that SO's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's SMR Rating (62) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as SO (63) and is in the same range as DUK (70). This means that CMS's stock grew similarly to SO’s and similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
SO's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (58) and is in the same range as CMS (59). This means that SO's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
SO's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (50) and is in the same range as CMS (56). This means that SO's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
| CMS | DUK | SO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 33% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 46% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 34% | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 32% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 49% | 8 days ago 51% | 8 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 39% | 12 days ago 39% | 12 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 23% | 2 days ago 30% | N/A |
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CMS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMS has been closely correlated with DTE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMS jumps, then DTE could also see price increases.
DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.
SO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SO has been closely correlated with DUK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SO jumps, then DUK could also see price increases.