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SHEL or SU or XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Shell plc (SHEL) vs. Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) vs. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SHEL, SU, and XOM have all benefited from elevated oil prices and favorable refining margins in recent market activity, driving strong quarterly results across the group.
- SHEL posted Q2 adjusted earnings of $9.8 billion alongside a $3 billion share buyback program and progress on the ARC Resources acquisition, supporting production growth expectations.
- SU is positioned ahead of its Q2 earnings release scheduled for August 4, with notable year-to-date gains reflecting operational resilience in Canadian oil sands.
- XOM reported Q2 profits exceeding $14 billion, fueled by Permian Basin output and refining strength, though results showed some variance versus consensus estimates.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between SHEL’s integrated model and buyback focus, SU’s upstream leverage, and XOM’s scale in upstream and downstream segments.
- Market sentiment remains tied to commodity price volatility and geopolitical factors, with all three exhibiting sensitivity to energy sector dynamics over the recent period.
Introduction
Shell plc (SHEL), Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) represent leading players in the global energy sector, each with distinct business profiles spanning upstream exploration, production, refining, and marketing. This comparison examines their recent stock behavior, financial metrics, and positioning amid fluctuating commodity prices and sector-wide developments. Institutional investors, energy-focused traders, and portfolio managers evaluating relative value within integrated oil majors may find the analysis relevant for assessing diversification, momentum, and risk exposure in current market conditions.
SHEL Overview and Recent Performance
Shell plc operates as a major integrated energy company with global upstream, downstream, and renewables activities. In recent market activity, SHEL shares have responded positively to robust Q2 results, including adjusted earnings of $9.8 billion and operating cash flow of $21 billion. Higher realized commodity prices, strong refining margins, and trading performance contributed to the outcome despite some volume impacts from Middle East disruptions. The company maintained its $3 billion quarterly buyback pace and advanced the ARC Resources acquisition, expected to enhance production growth. Sentiment has reflected confidence in cash generation and capital return programs, with shares trading near multi-month highs in broader energy sector strength.
SU Overview and Recent Performance
Suncor Energy Inc. focuses primarily on Canadian oil sands production alongside refining and marketing operations. SU has delivered solid year-to-date returns amid favorable oil price environments. The company is scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, with analysts anticipating substantial year-over-year earnings growth. Operational stability in its core assets and leverage to benchmark crude prices have supported recent momentum. Market activity has highlighted SU’s upstream exposure, with shares showing resilience and outperformance relative to broader indices over the recent period, though subject to typical commodity volatility.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
Exxon Mobil Corporation maintains a large-scale integrated model with significant upstream production, including the Permian Basin, and downstream refining capabilities. XOM reported Q2 profits of approximately $14.5 billion, driven by strong refining margins and record production levels. Results reflected benefits from higher energy prices and operational efficiency, though adjusted figures showed modest variance from some consensus estimates. The stock has exhibited steady performance within the sector, supported by scale advantages and dividend consistency. Recent market activity indicates sustained investor interest in XOM’s ability to navigate price cycles through diversified operations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ in emphasis: SHEL and XOM feature broad integrated operations with substantial downstream exposure, while SU maintains heavier upstream weighting in oil sands. Growth drivers include SHEL’s acquisition-driven production uplift and buybacks, SU’s leverage to Canadian crude benchmarks, and XOM’s Permian expansion alongside refining optimization. Recent momentum has favored all three amid elevated prices, though XOM posted the largest absolute earnings. Risk factors encompass commodity price swings, regulatory pressures, and geopolitical events, with SU carrying additional regional concentration. Valuation sensitivity appears higher for upstream-heavy names during price rallies, while integrated players like SHEL and XOM offer relative stability through downstream margins. Market sentiment reflects broad energy sector support, tempered by expectations for sustained volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings consistency, capital return programs, and positioning within the integrated energy space, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable relative performance to XOM. Its scale in production growth areas and downstream resilience provide a balanced profile amid ongoing sector dynamics, though all three names remain closely competitive depending on commodity trajectories.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SHEL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSU’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and XOM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- SHEL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SHEL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SU’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s), and XOM’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SHEL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SU’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SHEL (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +3.16% price change this week, while SU (@Integrated Oil) price change was +3.95% , and XOM (@Integrated Oil) price fluctuated +3.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +2.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
SHEL is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
SU is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+2.14% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| SHEL | SU | XOM | |
| Capitalization | 257B | 80B | 679B |
| EBITDA | 67.9B | 16.2B | 75.8B |
| Gain YTD | 30.497 | 54.238 | 39.955 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.32 | 12.62 | 21.25 |
| Revenue | 297B | 54.5B | 361B |
| Total Cash | 14.3B | 3.27B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 73.1B | 14.8B | 47.7B |
SHEL | SU | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 20 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 33 Fair valued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 10 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 60 | 94 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 42 | 19 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 40 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SU's Valuation (33) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SHEL (44) in the null industry, and is in the same range as XOM (65) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SU's stock grew similarly to SHEL’s and similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the null industry is in the same range as XOM (7) in the Integrated Oil industry, and is in the same range as SU (10) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL's stock grew similarly to XOM’s and similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's SMR Rating (58) in the null industry is in the same range as SU (60) in the Integrated Oil industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for XOM (94) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL's stock grew similarly to SU’s and somewhat faster than XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (42) in the Integrated Oil industry, and is in the same range as SHEL (44) in the null industry. This means that XOM's stock grew similarly to SU’s and similarly to SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (40) in the Integrated Oil industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for SHEL (87) in the null industry. This means that XOM's stock grew similarly to SU’s and significantly faster than SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
| SHEL | SU | XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 69% | 6 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 45% | 17 days ago 57% | 11 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 44% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 58% |
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SU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SU has been closely correlated with CVE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SU jumps, then CVE could also see price increases.