Alcoa (AA, $46.98) shares get rating upgrade at Jefferies
Alcoa shares got a rating boost from a Jefferies analyst.
Analyst Christopher LaFemina raised her rating on the aluminum producer to buy from hold. LaFemina also hiked his price target to $60 from $52.
LaFemina mentioned that Alcoa is a relative winner because the outlook for aluminum has become more optimistic with the global initiatives for decarbonization gathering steam.
"While the near-term outlook for aluminum is risky as China's economy slows, the longer-term story has become more positive on structural factors," the analyst noted.
"Aluminum is an important metal for decarbonization and will likely continue to take share from steel given its lightness (about one-third the weight of steel) and the fact that it is easily recyclable."
According to LaFemina, China recently becoming a net importer of aluminum as its production growth slows is a critically important structural change to the aluminum markets.
The analyst said that Alcoa is well-positioned to benefit from the improving supply/demand outlook for aluminum.
AA in -4.74% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on December 19, 2024
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where AA declined for three days, in of 304 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 06, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AA as a result. In of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AA turned negative on December 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
AA moved below its 50-day moving average on December 09, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on December 16, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 244 cases where AA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.862) is normal, around the industry mean (1.842). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.323). AA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.011) as compared to the industry average of (0.044). P/S Ratio (0.661) is also within normal values, averaging (0.795).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a miner of bauxite and aluminum
Industry Aluminum