Alcoa hitting upper rail of channel and triggering a bearish signal at the same time
The basic materials sector has been under pressure for the last four trading days and it is the worst performing sector of the 10 main sectors during that period. The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLB) has dropped 1.94% over the last four days. Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is a member of the materials sector and it fell 4.78% on Thursday, February 28.
The sudden decline could be just the beginning for Alcoa as the stock hit the upper rail of a downward sloped trend channel that has defined the trend over the last 10 months. The upper rail connects the highs from last April and October and the lower rail connects the lows from June, July, and December.
We also see that the daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory and just made a bearish crossover. The 10-day RSI was in overbought territory as well and dropped after the selling on Thursday.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bearish signal on February 27 with the signal calling for a drop of at least 4% in the coming months. The prediction came with a confidence level of 71% and 71% of previous predictions have been successful.
Alcoa’s fundamentals may be part of the problem for the stock. Earnings have been flat over the last three years and the EPS dropped by 37% in the most recent quarter. Sales have grown by 11% per year over the last three years and they were up by 5% in the most recent quarter.
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AA's Stochastic Oscillator slumps oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for AA moved into oversold territory on September 11, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for AA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +2.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AA advanced for three days, in 235 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
AA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AA moved out of overbought territory on August 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 80%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AA as a result. In 76 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AA turned negative on September 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
AA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for AA moved below the 200-day moving average on August 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for AA entered a downward trend on August 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 23 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AA's P/B Ratio (1.728) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.601). P/E Ratio (10.033) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.016). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.937) is also within normal values, averaging (0.904).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a miner of bauxite and aluminum
Industry Aluminum
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