Apple Could Find Support at a Long-Term Moving Average, but a Bounce Could Hit Trouble
Over the last decade or so, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has become one of the biggest bellwether stocks for the overall market and especially for the tech sector. In the last two months, the stock has fallen over 25% from its October 1 high. This development is part of the reason investors are nervous about the stock, the tech sector, and the overall market.
There could be some good news for the stock from a technical perspective. For the first time in a couple of years, the stock’s 104-week moving average is coming in to play. We saw a similar pattern develop in mid-2015 when the stock dropped down below the moving average, but didn’t close a week below it.
The unfortunate side of that development was that when the stock did bounce back, the 52-week moving average acted as resistance on its first attempt at a rebound. After hitting the 52-week, the stock dropped again from November ’15 through February ’16.
After that dip it made another attempt to rebound and once again the 52-week moving average stopped the rally in April ’16.
Apple’s fundamentals are still really good, but the earnings growth has slowed in recent years. The company’s annual earnings have averaged 8% over the last three years while sales have grown at 4% per year over that same period.
The real strengths are in the profitability measurements with a return on equity of 49.4% and a profit margin of 27.4%.
Overall I see a mixed picture for Apple. The technical picture suggests we could see a short-lived bounce that gets halted by the 52-week moving average. The fundamentals are good, but the earnings and sales growth rates have slowed in recent years.
AAPL sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for AAPL moved above the 200-day moving average on September 15, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 12, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAPL as a result. In of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAPL advanced for three days, in of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 298 cases where AAPL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AAPL moved out of overbought territory on September 08, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAPL turned negative on September 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAPL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AAPL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 03, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AAPL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAPL's P/B Ratio (53.763) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.178). P/E Ratio (36.266) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.587). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.296) is also within normal values, averaging (2.001). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.834) is also within normal values, averaging (252.905).
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a manufacturer of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players
Industry ComputerPeripherals
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