Emerging Market ETF Trending Lower in a Methodical Manner
Over the last nine months the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (NYSE: EEM) has been trending lower. The pattern in the chart has been extremely methodical to this point and can be identified with a trend channel.
The channel started in February and the fund has hit the upper rail on eight different occasions. The proximity to the descending 50-day moving average is very apparent as well.
I took note of a pattern with the fund moving above the 50-day for a day or a few days, and then falling back below the moving average. Those instances are noted with the blue circles. We just experienced another instance of the EEM moving above the moving average for one day with the big global rally on Wednesday, but it fell right back below it on Thursday.
It is also worth noting how the daily stochastic readings have been a pretty good indicator for the downswings. When the readings near overbought territory and then make a bearish crossover, those instances have been very accurate during the downtrend.
EEM in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025
The 10-day moving average for EEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EEM as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EEM turned negative on November 04, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
EEM moved below its 50-day moving average on November 18, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EEM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 58 cases where EEM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EEM advanced for three days, in of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
EEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 223 cases where EEM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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