Emerging Market ETF Trending Lower in a Methodical Manner
Over the last nine months the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (NYSE: EEM) has been trending lower. The pattern in the chart has been extremely methodical to this point and can be identified with a trend channel.
The channel started in February and the fund has hit the upper rail on eight different occasions. The proximity to the descending 50-day moving average is very apparent as well.
I took note of a pattern with the fund moving above the 50-day for a day or a few days, and then falling back below the moving average. Those instances are noted with the blue circles. We just experienced another instance of the EEM moving above the moving average for one day with the big global rally on Wednesday, but it fell right back below it on Thursday.
It is also worth noting how the daily stochastic readings have been a pretty good indicator for the downswings. When the readings near overbought territory and then make a bearish crossover, those instances have been very accurate during the downtrend.
EEM in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 10, 2025
EEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 42 cases where EEM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EEM as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EEM advanced for three days, in of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 243 cases where EEM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EEM moved out of overbought territory on October 09, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 62 cases where EEM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EEM turned negative on October 09, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EEM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
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