Is It Too Late to Buy Surging Homebuilders?
“We are currently experiencing the strongest housing market I have seen in my 30 years at Toll Brothers, and we continue to increase prices in nearly all of our communities.” --Douglas Yearley, CEO of Toll Brothers
The pandemic and all of its associated restrictions have produced an unlikely boom in housing. But maybe we should have expected it -- with the surge in online and remote work, and with corporations moving quickly to expand digital infrastructure, many Americans can now work from anywhere. In many cases, that has meant migrating out of major U.S. cities and relocating into more rural areas, where people can afford homes with office space.
According to Toll Brothers last earnings report, the number of contracts for new homes increased 68% to 3,407 units from last year, and the contract value rose 63% to $2.74 billion. The momentum is poised to continue: Toll’s home-building deliveries rose 10% from a year ago to 2,940, and the company expects around 1,675 home deliveries in the first quarter with an average price between $780,000 and $800,000.
With the pandemic still raging and many companies extending work-remote capabilities, the migration out of cities and into rural areas with homes may just be getting started. Companies like Toll Brothers, Pulte Homes, and KB Homes may stand to benefit.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 88 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 88 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TOL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 20, 2025. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 57 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
TOL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on October 21, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.622) is normal, around the industry mean (19.439). P/E Ratio (10.044) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.061). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.060) is also within normal values, averaging (1.421). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (0.037). P/S Ratio (1.266) is also within normal values, averaging (24.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding
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