Novavax (NVAX, $240.29) posted wider-than-expected fiscal Q4 loss
Novavax posted a fiscal fourth-quarter loss that’s wider than anticipated by analysts. However, the vaccine development company’s revenue came in higher than expected.
The net loss for the quarter widened to -$2.70 a share from -$1.13 in the year-earlier quarter. FactSet poll shows consensus estimates of a GAAP net loss of -$2.23 a share
Revenue rose $279.7 million from $8.8 million. That's higher than analysts' forecast of $202.4 million. The increase in revenue can be attributed to the company's services under an agreement with CEPI, which raises money for and supports vaccine development, and services to the U.S. government's Operation Warp Speed vaccine-development program.
"With positive efficacy results, including against evolving variant strains, NVX-Cov2373 offers a highly unique profile, including the ability to ship and store the vaccine at traditional refrigerated temperatures," President and CEO Stanley Erck said in a statement.
These attributes, according to Erck , should support emergency-use authorization. The company has initiated talks with regulators to pursue appropriate regulatory authorization, Erck indicated.
NVAX in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on April 24, 2025
NVAX moved below its 50-day moving average on April 24, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 41 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 06, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVAX as a result. In of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVAX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
NVAX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 23, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NVAX entered a downward trend on April 22, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVAX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 40 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVAX just turned positive on May 08, 2025. Looking at past instances where NVAX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +2 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVAX advanced for three days, in of 270 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (14.703). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (64.016). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.990). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.333) is also within normal values, averaging (254.016).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
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a company which engages in development of novel recombinant vaccines
Industry Biotechnology