Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly vs. Pfizer: Earnings Preview Ahead of the GLP-1 Showdown
Key Takeaways
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Novo Nordisk (NVO) reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 4, 2026, with consensus estimates of $11.96 billion in revenue and $0.89 EPS, reflecting a moderation in GLP-1 growth.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) is expected to report around the same time, with projections of $17.87 billion in revenue and $6.99 EPS, driven by continued volume gains from Mounjaro and Zepbound.
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Pfizer (PFE) recently topped Q4 expectations with $17.6 billion in revenue and $0.66 adjusted EPS, but reaffirmed a flat 2026 revenue outlook of $59.5–62.5 billion.
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GLP-1 leaders NVO and LLY face U.S. pricing pressure and rising competition, while Pfizer focuses on cost discipline and oncology-led diversification.
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Wegovy and Ozempic growth at NVO has slowed amid compounded alternatives, while LLY continues to gain share in obesity treatment.
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Investor attention centers on 2026 GLP-1 demand guidance from NVO and LLY versus Pfizer’s post-COVID stabilization path.
Why This Comparison Matters
Novo Nordisk’s upcoming earnings will serve as a critical barometer for the global GLP-1 obesity market. While Wegovy and Ozempic remain category leaders, growth has softened due to U.S. compounding competition and intensifying rivalry from Eli Lilly. LLY’s rapid ascent with Mounjaro and Zepbound has reshaped market dynamics in a sector expected to surpass $100 billion in annual sales by the end of the decade.
Pfizer adds a contrasting dimension. Fresh off a Q4 earnings beat, the company represents a diversified pharma model grappling with post-COVID normalization. Strategic cost reductions and acquisitions—such as Metsera to gain exposure to obesity therapies—highlight Pfizer’s effort to reaccelerate growth. Together, the three stocks frame a choice between high-growth GLP-1 leaders and a value-oriented pharmaceutical incumbent.
Novo Nordisk: Earnings in Focus
Novo Nordisk is scheduled to report before market open on February 4, 2026, with analysts forecasting $11.96 billion in revenue and $0.89 EPS. Expectations reflect tempered growth following prior guidance reductions tied to slower Wegovy and Ozempic uptake in the U.S.
Key items to watch include:
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GLP-1 sales momentum across obesity and diabetes indications
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U.S. pricing trends amid compounded semaglutide competition
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Initial traction from oral Wegovy
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Management’s 2026 growth outlook, likely conservative
Novo Nordisk’s recent earnings history has been volatile, including a Q3 EPS miss, underscoring investor sensitivity to any further deceleration or market share loss.
Eli Lilly: Momentum Advantage
Eli Lilly’s Q4 2025 results are expected around the same timeframe, with consensus estimates of $17.87 billion in revenue and $6.99 EPS. Growth continues to be powered by incretin therapies, even as pricing moderates.
In Q3, Lilly posted 54% revenue growth, reaching $17.6 billion, with Mounjaro and Zepbound commanding nearly 60% of U.S. obesity prescriptions. Strategic moves, including the acquisition of Nimbus to strengthen its oral obesity pipeline, reinforce Lilly’s leadership position. Investors will focus on international rollout progress, R&D spending discipline, and 2026 guidance to assess sustainability.
Pfizer: Stabilization After the COVID Cliff
Pfizer recently reported Q4 2025 results, delivering $17.6 billion in revenue, modestly down year over year but ahead of expectations. Adjusted EPS of $0.66 also exceeded consensus, despite GAAP losses tied to restructuring charges.
Key takeaways include:
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4% operational growth in non-COVID products
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Reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $59.5–62.5 billion, signaling stabilization rather than growth
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Targeted $7.7 billion in cost savings by 2027
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Strategic entry into obesity via the Metsera acquisition
Shares weakened following the report as investors weighed the lack of near-term growth relative to GLP-1 peers.
AI Trading Perspective
Tickeron’s AI-driven trading strategies highlight differing profiles across the group. For NVO and LLY, the Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy (60-min TA) is designed to capture volatility tied to GLP-1 headlines and earnings momentum. For Pfizer, the Trend Trader Popular Stocks (60-min TA/FA) blends technical and fundamental inputs, reflecting its more mature, range-bound trading behavior.
Head-to-Head Snapshot
NVO and LLY remain the dominant forces in GLP-1, delivering superior earnings growth but facing rising pricing pressure and regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. Lilly’s expected Q4 EPS growth of over 30% contrasts with Novo Nordisk’s slight year-over-year decline. Pfizer’s recent earnings beat highlights operational resilience, though loss-of-exclusivity risks and flat guidance weigh on sentiment.
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Growth leadership: Eli Lilly
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Recovery potential: Novo Nordisk
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Value and yield: Pfizer
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor Eli Lilly, citing strong prescription share gains, trend stability, and pipeline momentum in obesity treatments. Novo Nordisk is viewed as a potential post-earnings rebound candidate if guidance stabilizes, while Pfizer appeals to income-oriented investors seeking diversified exposure. Near term, relative earnings strength and valuation dynamics continue to tilt the outlook toward LLY.
Disclaimers and Limitations
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
NVO sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for NVO moved above the 200-day moving average on July 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on August 18, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVO as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVO just turned positive on August 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
NVO moved above its 50-day moving average on August 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVO advanced for three days, in of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
NVO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 256 cases where NVO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for NVO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.981) is normal, around the industry mean (19.412). P/E Ratio (11.402) is within average values for comparable stocks, (33.411). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.162) is also within normal values, averaging (11.422). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (4.275).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock worse than average.
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a developer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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