Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly vs. Pfizer: Earnings Preview Ahead of the GLP-1 Showdown
Key Takeaways
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Novo Nordisk (NVO) reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 4, 2026, with consensus estimates of $11.96 billion in revenue and $0.89 EPS, reflecting a moderation in GLP-1 growth.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) is expected to report around the same time, with projections of $17.87 billion in revenue and $6.99 EPS, driven by continued volume gains from Mounjaro and Zepbound.
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Pfizer (PFE) recently topped Q4 expectations with $17.6 billion in revenue and $0.66 adjusted EPS, but reaffirmed a flat 2026 revenue outlook of $59.5–62.5 billion.
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GLP-1 leaders NVO and LLY face U.S. pricing pressure and rising competition, while Pfizer focuses on cost discipline and oncology-led diversification.
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Wegovy and Ozempic growth at NVO has slowed amid compounded alternatives, while LLY continues to gain share in obesity treatment.
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Investor attention centers on 2026 GLP-1 demand guidance from NVO and LLY versus Pfizer’s post-COVID stabilization path.
Why This Comparison Matters
Novo Nordisk’s upcoming earnings will serve as a critical barometer for the global GLP-1 obesity market. While Wegovy and Ozempic remain category leaders, growth has softened due to U.S. compounding competition and intensifying rivalry from Eli Lilly. LLY’s rapid ascent with Mounjaro and Zepbound has reshaped market dynamics in a sector expected to surpass $100 billion in annual sales by the end of the decade.
Pfizer adds a contrasting dimension. Fresh off a Q4 earnings beat, the company represents a diversified pharma model grappling with post-COVID normalization. Strategic cost reductions and acquisitions—such as Metsera to gain exposure to obesity therapies—highlight Pfizer’s effort to reaccelerate growth. Together, the three stocks frame a choice between high-growth GLP-1 leaders and a value-oriented pharmaceutical incumbent.
Novo Nordisk: Earnings in Focus
Novo Nordisk is scheduled to report before market open on February 4, 2026, with analysts forecasting $11.96 billion in revenue and $0.89 EPS. Expectations reflect tempered growth following prior guidance reductions tied to slower Wegovy and Ozempic uptake in the U.S.
Key items to watch include:
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GLP-1 sales momentum across obesity and diabetes indications
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U.S. pricing trends amid compounded semaglutide competition
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Initial traction from oral Wegovy
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Management’s 2026 growth outlook, likely conservative
Novo Nordisk’s recent earnings history has been volatile, including a Q3 EPS miss, underscoring investor sensitivity to any further deceleration or market share loss.
Eli Lilly: Momentum Advantage
Eli Lilly’s Q4 2025 results are expected around the same timeframe, with consensus estimates of $17.87 billion in revenue and $6.99 EPS. Growth continues to be powered by incretin therapies, even as pricing moderates.
In Q3, Lilly posted 54% revenue growth, reaching $17.6 billion, with Mounjaro and Zepbound commanding nearly 60% of U.S. obesity prescriptions. Strategic moves, including the acquisition of Nimbus to strengthen its oral obesity pipeline, reinforce Lilly’s leadership position. Investors will focus on international rollout progress, R&D spending discipline, and 2026 guidance to assess sustainability.
Pfizer: Stabilization After the COVID Cliff
Pfizer recently reported Q4 2025 results, delivering $17.6 billion in revenue, modestly down year over year but ahead of expectations. Adjusted EPS of $0.66 also exceeded consensus, despite GAAP losses tied to restructuring charges.
Key takeaways include:
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4% operational growth in non-COVID products
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Reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $59.5–62.5 billion, signaling stabilization rather than growth
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Targeted $7.7 billion in cost savings by 2027
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Strategic entry into obesity via the Metsera acquisition
Shares weakened following the report as investors weighed the lack of near-term growth relative to GLP-1 peers.
AI Trading Perspective
Tickeron’s AI-driven trading strategies highlight differing profiles across the group. For NVO and LLY, the Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy (60-min TA) is designed to capture volatility tied to GLP-1 headlines and earnings momentum. For Pfizer, the Trend Trader Popular Stocks (60-min TA/FA) blends technical and fundamental inputs, reflecting its more mature, range-bound trading behavior.
Head-to-Head Snapshot
NVO and LLY remain the dominant forces in GLP-1, delivering superior earnings growth but facing rising pricing pressure and regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. Lilly’s expected Q4 EPS growth of over 30% contrasts with Novo Nordisk’s slight year-over-year decline. Pfizer’s recent earnings beat highlights operational resilience, though loss-of-exclusivity risks and flat guidance weigh on sentiment.
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Growth leadership: Eli Lilly
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Recovery potential: Novo Nordisk
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Value and yield: Pfizer
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor Eli Lilly, citing strong prescription share gains, trend stability, and pipeline momentum in obesity treatments. Novo Nordisk is viewed as a potential post-earnings rebound candidate if guidance stabilizes, while Pfizer appeals to income-oriented investors seeking diversified exposure. Near term, relative earnings strength and valuation dynamics continue to tilt the outlook toward LLY.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
NVO's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for NVO entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 177 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 117 of the 177 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVO as a result. In 54 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVO turned negative on September 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
The 50-day moving average for NVO moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 18 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVO advanced for three days, in 210 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
NVO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.076) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (9.689) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.416) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). NVO has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.046) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (3.627) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock worse than average.
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a developer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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