Novartis vs. Sanofi: Earnings Preview as NVS Heads Into Q4 Results
Key Takeaways
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Novartis (NVS) reports Q4/FY 2025 earnings on February 4, 2026, with consensus calling for ~$1.99 EPS on ~$13.7 billion in revenue.
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Sanofi (SNY) delivered strong FY 2025 results on January 29, reporting €43.6 billion in sales (+9.9% CER) and 15% business EPS growth.
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Novartis’ growth narrative centers on oncology and immunology, led by Kisqali and Pluvicto, while investors monitor Entresto generic exposure.
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Sanofi is powered by Dupixent (€15.7 billion in annual sales) and a growing slate of new launches, guiding for high single-digit sales growth in 2026.
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NVS commands a larger valuation (~$270B market cap) versus SNY (~$116B), while both offer attractive shareholder returns with ~2–4% dividend yields.
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AI-based tools such as Tickeron’s Trend Trader highlight momentum-driven opportunities in large-cap names like NVS.
Why This Comparison Matters
Novartis’ upcoming earnings report will offer a key checkpoint for investors assessing the company’s post-Sandoz, pure-play pharmaceutical strategy. With pressure mounting from Entresto’s loss of exclusivity and accelerating demand for newer oncology assets, Q4 results will help clarify margin durability and 2026 growth prospects.
Sanofi provides a timely benchmark. Its freshly reported FY 2025 performance underscores how blockbuster franchises—particularly Dupixent—can offset patent risks and support above-market growth. Together, NVS and SNY illustrate the diverging paths European pharma giants are taking to navigate pricing pressure, patent cliffs, and pipeline execution heading into 2026.
What to Watch in Novartis Earnings
Wall Street expects Q4 EPS of $1.99, up modestly year over year, with revenue rising ~4.3% to $13.72 billion. Full-year core EPS is projected near $8, supported by 11% sales growth over the first nine months of FY 2025.
Key focus areas include:
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Kisqali, with quarterly sales expected around $870 million, boosted by adjuvant breast cancer approvals.
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Pluvicto, as expanded indications drive oncology revenue mix.
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Kesimpta, continuing to gain share in multiple sclerosis.
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Entresto, particularly U.S. sales trends ahead of mid-2025 generic entry.
Core operating margins near 39% and any updates to FY 2026 guidance will likely dictate the stock’s reaction. Historically, Novartis tends to post modest earnings beats, with post-report share moves typically in the 1–3% range.
Sanofi’s Recent Results in Context
Sanofi’s FY 2025 results reinforced its growth profile. The company reported €43.6 billion in net sales, with Q4 revenue up 13.3%, and business EPS rising 15% for the year (nearly 27% in Q4).
Highlights included:
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Dupixent reaching €15.7 billion in annual sales, cementing its status as one of pharma’s top global franchises.
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New product launches growing 34%, offsetting vaccine softness.
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€8.1 billion in free cash flow, enabling a €5 billion buyback, plans for another €1 billion in 2026, and a 5% dividend increase.
Management guided to high single-digit sales growth in 2026, with EPS expected to grow slightly faster—positioning Sanofi as a steady, income-friendly alternative to NVS.
From a technical perspective, Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy for Large-Cap Stocks highlights Novartis as a candidate for momentum-based trading. Using 60-minute technical analysis, the AI model tracks trend strength through moving averages and oscillators to identify potential entry and exit points. While backtests show favorable results in trending markets, outcomes remain sensitive to broader market conditions.
Head-to-Head Snapshot
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Novartis (NVS): ~$270B market cap, P/E ~17–20, trailing revenue ~$56B, dividend yield ~2%.
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Sanofi (SNY): ~$116B market cap, P/E ~15–16, trailing revenue ~$54B (€50B), dividend yield ~4.5%.
Novartis offers greater scale and deeper oncology optionality, while Sanofi stands out for faster recent growth, a dominant immunology franchise, and superior income appeal. Key risks include loss of exclusivity for Entresto and Promacta at NVS, and reimbursement pressure tied to Regeneron partnerships at SNY, though royalties help cushion the impact.
Tickeron AI Takeaway
Tickeron’s AI models currently tilt toward Novartis, citing its pipeline momentum, scale advantage, and relative stability heading into earnings. Sanofi remains compelling for yield-focused investors and those favoring near-term growth visibility, but probabilistic models suggest NVS is better positioned for mid-term outperformance as oncology-driven revenues scale across the sector.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
NVS's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NVS moved out of oversold territory on September 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVS just turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVS advanced for three days, in 182 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVS as a result. In 44 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
NVS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
NVS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.720) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (22.187) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.441) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.715) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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