GET DAILY SIGNALSBanco Santander vs. Bank of America: Earnings Preview as Global Banking Momentum Faces a Reality Check
Key Takeaways
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Banco Santander (SAN) reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 4, 2026, following record nine-month attributable profit of €10.3 billion, up 11% year over year.
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Consensus calls for Q4 EPS of $0.25, as Santander works toward ~€62 billion in 2025 revenue and ~16.5% RoTE post-AT1.
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Bank of America (BAC) recently posted Q4 2025 net income of $7.6 billion (EPS $0.98, a beat), with full-year revenue up 7% to $113 billion.
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Santander’s globally diversified footprint contrasts with BAC’s U.S.-centric scale, though both banks are showing resilient net interest income amid rate normalization.
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Santander targets 13% CET1 and up to €10 billion in share buybacks, while BAC guides for 5–7% net interest income growth in 2026.
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Investor focus centers on Santander’s execution against full-year targets versus Bank of America’s post-earnings momentum and efficiency gains.
Why This Comparison Matters
Banco Santander’s Q4 earnings will cap a standout year, highlighted by record profits, expanding customer numbers, and solid fee growth across regions. As one of the most globally diversified large banks—with meaningful exposure to Europe and Latin America—Santander’s results will test earnings durability amid currency volatility and a shifting rate backdrop.
Bank of America offers a counterpoint. Fresh off a Q4 earnings beat, BAC exemplifies U.S. banking strength, supported by scale in consumer banking, wealth management, and capital markets. Together, the two institutions illustrate the trade-off investors face between international growth optionality and U.S. stability as global banking momentum meets a more normalized environment.
Banco Santander: Earnings in Focus
Santander is expected to report Q4 EPS of $0.25, up from $0.21 a year earlier. Management has reaffirmed its 2025 targets, including:
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~€62 billion in revenue
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Mid- to high-single-digit fee growth
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Lower operating costs in euro terms
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Cost of risk around 1.15%
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RoTE above 17% (approximately 16.5% post-AT1)
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CET1 ratio of 13%
In Q3, Santander delivered a record €3.5 billion profit, with nine-month revenue of €46.3 billion and fees up 4%. Key areas to watch in Q4 include seasonal fee trends, net interest income stability excluding Argentina, and cost efficiencies from the ONE Transformation program. Historically, Santander has modestly beaten expectations, with shares often reacting 2–5% on positive surprises. Capital returns remain a highlight, with €10 billion in buybacks planned for 2025–2026.
Bank of America: Recent Results and Outlook
Bank of America reported Q4 2025 results on January 14, 2026, posting $7.6 billion in net income, up 12% year over year, and EPS of $0.98, ahead of consensus. Revenue rose 7% to roughly $28.5 billion, supported by stronger net interest income and solid trading performance.
For the full year, BAC generated $30.5 billion in net income, with EPS of $3.81, reflecting double-digit growth. Net interest income rose 10% in Q4, and average deposits remained strong at $2.01 trillion. Management guided to 5–7% NII growth in 2026, mid-single-digit loan growth, and approximately 200 basis points of operating leverage, supported by a CET1 ratio of 11.4%. Despite the earnings beat, shares initially dipped as investors rotated within the financial sector.
AI Trading Perspective
From a technical standpoint, Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy for Large-Cap Stocks (60-min TA) highlights Bank of America as a candidate for momentum-based trading. The strategy uses 60-minute technical analysis to identify trend signals in large-cap stocks, aiming to capture earnings-driven and macro-driven moves while managing downside risk—particularly relevant in a consolidating banking sector.
Head-to-Head Snapshot
Santander’s nine-month profit trajectory suggests potential €13–14 billion full-year earnings, supporting its targeted returns. Bank of America, however, operates at far greater absolute scale, with $30.5 billion in FY net income.
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Growth drivers: Santander’s fee expansion, digital adoption, and Latin America exposure versus BAC’s net interest income, wealth management, and trading strength.
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Risks: FX volatility and emerging-market sensitivity for Santander; deposit costs and U.S. economic slowdown risk for BAC.
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Capital strength: Santander’s ~13% CET1 enables aggressive buybacks, while BAC’s efficiency gains and operating leverage underpin shareholder returns.
Market sentiment currently favors U.S.-focused banks amid global uncertainty, though Santander’s diversification offers upside if currency and rate headwinds stabilize.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models presently lean toward Bank of America, citing higher earnings visibility, recent execution strength, and a supportive U.S. macro backdrop heading into 2026. Santander remains attractive for investors seeking growth and capital return potential, but foreign-exchange exposure and regional volatility reduce near-term certainty. In this pairing, BAC offers stability, while SAN provides selective upside tied to global recovery trends.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
SAN in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026
SAN moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 23 of 38 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SAN as a result. In 47 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The 10-day moving average for SAN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for SAN entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAN advanced for three days, in 230 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
SAN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.550) is normal, around the industry mean (1.517). P/E Ratio (11.081) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.751). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.932) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.966) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SAN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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