ON Semiconductor (ON) Q2 2026 Earnings: AI Growth in Focus After Recent -10.7% Decline
Key Takeaways
- ON Semiconductor is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results after market close on Monday, August 3, 2026, for the quarter ended July 3, 2026.
- Consensus estimates call for earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $0.71 to $0.72 on revenue of roughly $1.59 billion, representing double-digit year-over-year growth on both lines.
- The company raised its own Q2 guidance in late June, projecting non-GAAP EPS of $0.65 to $0.77 and revenue of $1.535 billion to $1.635 billion, with the midpoint roughly in line with Wall Street expectations.
- AI data center revenue is expected to be a standout catalyst, with management forecasting a doubling of AI-related sales year-over-year in 2026.
- Investors will closely watch gross margin trajectory, automotive segment recovery, and the impact of planned non-core revenue exits totaling approximately $300 million annualized.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
ON Semiconductor, widely known by its brand name onsemi, enters this earnings event at a pivotal moment. The Scottsdale, Arizona-based chipmaker has been navigating a complex semiconductor landscape marked by uneven end-market demand. Its Q1 2026 results — with EPS of $0.64 beating consensus by $0.03 and revenue of $1.51 billion topping estimates — demonstrated improving operational execution. Yet the stock has declined roughly 10.7% over the past month, underperforming the broader market, suggesting investor caution heading into this report. This Q2 release matters because it will either validate the narrative of an AI-powered growth inflection or raise fresh questions about the pace of recovery in onsemi's core automotive and industrial markets, which together represent the bulk of company revenue.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street analysts have set the bar at approximately $0.71 to $0.72 in non-GAAP EPS for Q2 2026, which would mark a roughly 34% to 36% increase from the $0.53 reported in the same quarter last year. The consensus revenue estimate stands near $1.59 billion, implying year-over-year growth of around 8%. On June 26, 2026, onsemi issued updated guidance bracketing these expectations: non-GAAP EPS of $0.65 to $0.77 on revenue of $1.535 billion to $1.635 billion. The revenue range accounts for an incremental $30 million to $40 million in planned non-core business exits; excluding those, the midpoint implies roughly 7% sequential growth — above typical seasonal patterns.
At the segment level, analysts project automotive revenue of approximately $800 million, industrial revenue near $440 million, and other market revenue around $347 million. Gross margin expectations center on the 38% to 40% range as guided by management, with utilization rates expected to be flat to slightly up from Q1's 77%. ON Semiconductor has historically beaten consensus EPS estimates in three of its last four quarterly reports, lending some credibility to the idea that another upside surprise is possible — though macro uncertainties and ongoing portfolio reshaping add layers of complexity to this quarter's outcome. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into ON Semiconductor's Q2 report appears cautiously optimistic but far from euphoric. The stock's recent underperformance — down more than 10% in the past month against a modestly positive S&P 500 — suggests that investors are pricing in lingering concerns about inventory normalization, mixed industrial demand, and the dilutive near-term effect of non-core revenue exits. On the bullish side, Wall Street analysts have issued 25 upward EPS revisions and zero downward revisions over the last three months, with 26 upward revenue revisions over the same period — a strikingly one-sided trend that signals growing confidence in the earnings trajectory. Key risk factors include any disappointment in AI data center growth rates, softer-than-expected automotive demand outside of China, and margin compression from input cost pressures or unfavorable product mix shifts. The conference call at 5:00 PM Eastern Time will be closely parsed for management's tone on the second-half outlook.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Beyond the headline numbers, three themes will dominate the post-earnings narrative for ON Semiconductor. First is the trajectory of AI data center revenue. Management has telegraphed that this segment is on pace to double year-over-year in 2026, with Q1 already showing over 30% sequential growth. Any deviation from that cadence — higher or lower — will move the stock.
Second is the Treo product platform ramp, which grew 2.5 times sequentially in Q1 and represents a strategically important growth vector in power management. Investors will want to see continued momentum here as evidence that onsemi's product portfolio is gaining traction in high-value applications.
Third is the margin story. Gross margin expanded to 38.5% in Q1, and management has guided for sequential gross and operating margin improvement throughout 2026. Sustainability of that trend depends on utilization rates, product mix, and the pace at which lower-margin non-core revenue is shed. The planned exit of approximately $300 million in annualized non-core revenue is intended to improve the overall margin profile, but near-term top-line optics may suffer, creating a tension that investors will need to weigh carefully.
Additionally, the automotive segment — onsemi's largest end market — remains a critical swing factor. With global auto production stabilizing and electric vehicle adoption continuing to expand, particularly in China, the pace of automotive revenue recovery will be a key determinant of whether ON Semiconductor can sustain its growth narrative into the second half of 2026 and beyond. From what I see, monitoring these elements closely will be essential.
Enhancing Research with AI Tools
In my own analysis process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by industry, technical signals, and performance metrics. It helps surface comparable ideas and context around earnings setups without spending hours on manual screening, which I find particularly useful during busy reporting seasons like this one.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
ON in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on September 11, 2026
ON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 42 of the 53 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Aroon Indicator for ON entered a downward trend on September 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ON's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 63 cases where ON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ON as a result. In 70 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ON just turned positive on August 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where ON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 42 of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +2.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ON advanced for three days, in 226 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.107) is normal, around the industry mean (7.465). P/E Ratio (49.765) is within average values for comparable stocks, (159.209). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.171) is also within normal values, averaging (1.728). ON has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.015). P/S Ratio (4.958) is also within normal values, averaging (54.361).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a manufacturer of semiconductors
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