Shopify (SHOP, $187.77) clocks record Q4 growth
Shopify Inc, the virtual go-to destination for e-commerce entrepreneurs, has published impressive Q4 results that indicate a long runway of growth ahead. In Q4, revenue grew to $343.9 billion, a 54% y-o-y increase, and adjusted EPS rose to $0.26, a 73% y-o-y increase. Its gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased 54% to $14 billion. Overall, the company’s stock has appreciated over 800% in the last three years.
But do these figures tell the whole story.
Shopify is not just about pushing products; it’s about empowering merchants. The company helps merchants across the size spectrum to set up virtual shops quickly and affordably with the help of select tools that make it easier for clients to process payments, ship packages, secure financing, and reduce fraudulent transactions. This merchant solutions segment has alone accounted for a revenue growth of $210.3 million in Q4, a 63% increase over last year’s Q4.
Further, once the shops have been set up, the platform soon becomes indispensible for the merchants who don’t find it beneficial to leave it for another competitor. The listing and shipping of products, acceptance of payments, and the financing of future growth – the entire gamut of the shopping segments makes it impossible for the merchants to dump it altogether.
Other two important Shopify segments include Shopify Shipping, launched in 2015 that allows merchants to select from a variety of shipping partners to buy and print outbound and return shipping labels and track orders directly within the Shopify platform. Almost 40% of eligible merchants used the platform in Q4, up from 30% of U.S. and 20% of Canadian merchants in 2017's final quarter.
The next one is Shopify Payments, which enables merchants to accept card and digital payments across its online and offline commerce platforms. In Q4, $5.8 billion was processed on Shopify Payments, a 65% y-o-y increase, and about 41% of the company's GMV.
All these beneficial factors coupled with its sticky ecosystem and features, is likely to help Shopify keep the merchants on its platform for years to come.
SHOP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on January 28, 2025
SHOP moved above its 50-day moving average on January 28, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 38 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 24, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHOP as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHOP just turned positive on January 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where SHOP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for SHOP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on January 31, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SHOP moved out of overbought territory on January 31, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHOP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SHOP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 28, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SHOP entered a downward trend on January 23, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.099) is normal, around the industry mean (31.656). P/E Ratio (781.900) is within average values for comparable stocks, (160.113). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.291) is also within normal values, averaging (2.763). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.085) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.347) is also within normal values, averaging (59.296).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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an operator of eCommerce website that allows customers to sell online by providing software to create an online store
Industry PackagedSoftware