TAL Education Group hits lower rail of channel after bullish signal triggered
Chinese tutoring company TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) has been trending higher since last October and a trend channel has formed that defines the various cycles within the overall trend. The stock recently hit the lower rail of the channel and looks like it is ready to bounce once again.
The stock was in overbought territory based on the daily stochastic readings. With the turn higher in the last few days, the indicators made a bullish crossover on May 28.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for TAL on May 24 and the signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. The signal showed a 75% confidence level. Past predictions on TAL have been successful 90% of the time.
TAL Education Group has some of the highest fundamental ratings a company can get according to Investor’s Business Daily’s rating’s systems. The company scores a 99 on the EPS rating and an A on the SMR rating. Those are both the highest ratings a company can achieve.
TAL has been able to grow its earnings at a rate of 49% per year over the last three years while sales have grown at a rate of 63%. The company shows a return on equity of 21.7% and a profit margin of 17.2%.
TAL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for TAL entered a downward trend on January 08, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 200 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 200 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 07, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TAL as a result. In of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TAL turned negative on January 07, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TAL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 61 cases where TAL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TAL advanced for three days, in of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.038) is normal, around the industry mean (28.225). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (90.877). TAL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.746). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.373) is also within normal values, averaging (12.150).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
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an education and tutoring services provider
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