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Toll Brothers (TOL, $64.45) Q2 earnings beats expectations
Toll Brothers reported revenue that was close to analysts’ expectations. Its earnings topped estimates.
For the fiscal 2021 third quarter, ended July 31, the homebuilding company's revenue came in at $2.26 billion, up from $1.65 billion last year. Analysts polled by FactSet expected $2.25 billion.
Net income in the quarter was $234.9 million, or $1.87 per share, in the latest quarter, compared to $114.8 million, or $0.90 per share in the year-ago quarter. Analysts expected $1.54 a share.
On Tuesday, Toll Brothers and Equity Residential, a company focused on the acquisition, development and management of residential rental properties, announced a strategic partnership to develop new rental apartment communities in key U.S. markets.
Aroon Indicator for TOL shows an upward move is likely
TOL's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on May 10, 2022. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 310 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 215 of the 310 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 69%.
Current price $47.45 crossed the resistance line at $44.35 and is trading between $81.96 resistance and $44.35 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 04/13/22 - 05/16/22, the price experienced a +0.66% Uptrend. During the week of 05/09/22 - 05/16/22, the stock enjoyed a +0.40% Uptrend growth.
The Stochastic Indicator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 57 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 13, 2022. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 59 of 103 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on May 13, 2022. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +7.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 203 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
TOL moved below its 50-day Moving Average on May 05, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 04, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 50%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.17.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.064) is normal, around the industry mean (5.887). P/E Ratio (6.707) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.401) is also within normal values, averaging (2.341). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.015) as compared to the industry average of (0.054). P/S Ratio (0.659) is also within normal values, averaging (107.530).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
The average market capitalization across the Homebuilding Industry is 4B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 789.7K to 25.8B. LEN.B holds the highest valuation in this group at 25.8B. The lowest valued company is EGBB at 789.7K.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 0.28%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.64%. EGBB experienced the highest price growth at 40.88%, while STHI experienced the biggest fall at -32.89%.
- 4/26/22 5:09 AM: Toll Brothers (TOL, $47.96) was a top weekly gainer, with a +5.48% jump
- 3/19/22 4:49 AM: Toll Brothers (TOL, $53.42) was a top weekly gainer, with a +5.55% jump
- 3/3/22 7:26 AM: Toll Brothers (TOL, $54.88) was a top weekly gainer, with a +12.16% jump
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 19.35%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 15.07% and the average quarterly volume growth was 100.84%
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Stocks in the group have a Negative Outlook today, backed by the MA200MA50 Indicator. Tickeron has a negative outlook on this group and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 50%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.05.
26 stocks in the group of tickers confirmed the negative outlook based on the Declines indicator with average odds of 68%.
The most notable companies in this group are DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).
The average market capitalization across the group is 4.8B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 0 to 32.3B. CAOVF holds the highest valuation in this group at 32.3B. The lowest valued company is HOVNP at 0.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was -0.85%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -1.4%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.21%. DRTT experienced the highest price growth at 14.99%, while AGPYF experienced the biggest fall at -29.08%.
- 5/12/22 5:38 AM: Tri Pointe Homes (TPH, $19.19) was a top loser this week, declining -13.48%. Expect a Downtrend reversal
- 5/12/22 5:38 AM: Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC, $25.54) was a top loser this week, declining -13.31%. Expect a Downtrend reversal
- 5/5/22 4:57 AM: DR Horton (DHI, $75.57) was a top weekly gainer, with a +7.82% jump
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was -28.78%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 214.59% and the average quarterly volume growth was 143.06%
- 4/30/22 5:51 AM: The volume for Tri Pointe Homes stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 348% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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