Toll Brothers (TOL) Declines on Waning Demand
Shares of the U.S. luxury home builder, Toll Brothers, slipped more that 5% on Tuesday after the company reported its first fall in quarterly orders in more than four years.
Corroborating the weak state of the U.S. housing market, the Q4 result of the company is the latest evidence of slowing housing demand, hit by rising interest rates and higher home prices.
After a pre-market fall of 4.2%, the shares further declined to 5.6% after the results indicated that demand would likely fall further in November.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes plunged to a more than 2-1/2-year low in October, due to sharp declines across regions.
Toll Brothers, whose homes can cost upwards of $2 million, said orders (a key indicator of future revenue) dropped 13.3% to 1,715 units in the quarter ended Oct. 31, against the 6.5% rise expected by analysts.
Orders fell most in California, Toll’s biggest market by revenue. This was the hardest hit where orders in general declined by 39.4% to 226 units in the quarter.
Toll’s net income rose to $311 million, or $2.08 per share, in the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of $1.83 per share, while revenue surged 21.1% to $2.46 billion against Wall Street’s expectation of $2.35 billion.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns negative, indicating new downward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 13, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TOL turned negative on November 13, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 58 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
TOL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on October 21, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.505) is normal, around the industry mean (19.762). P/E Ratio (9.320) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.573). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.984) is also within normal values, averaging (1.399). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.008) as compared to the industry average of (0.038). P/S Ratio (1.174) is also within normal values, averaging (24.805).
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding
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