Toll Brothers (TOL) Declines on Waning Demand
Shares of the U.S. luxury home builder, Toll Brothers, slipped more that 5% on Tuesday after the company reported its first fall in quarterly orders in more than four years.
Corroborating the weak state of the U.S. housing market, the Q4 result of the company is the latest evidence of slowing housing demand, hit by rising interest rates and higher home prices.
After a pre-market fall of 4.2%, the shares further declined to 5.6% after the results indicated that demand would likely fall further in November.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes plunged to a more than 2-1/2-year low in October, due to sharp declines across regions.
Toll Brothers, whose homes can cost upwards of $2 million, said orders (a key indicator of future revenue) dropped 13.3% to 1,715 units in the quarter ended Oct. 31, against the 6.5% rise expected by analysts.
Orders fell most in California, Toll’s biggest market by revenue. This was the hardest hit where orders in general declined by 39.4% to 226 units in the quarter.
Toll’s net income rose to $311 million, or $2.08 per share, in the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of $1.83 per share, while revenue surged 21.1% to $2.46 billion against Wall Street’s expectation of $2.35 billion.
TOL's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of oversold territory on October 14, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 55 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 20, 2025. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TOL as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TOL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on October 20, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.616) is normal, around the industry mean (19.439). P/E Ratio (10.009) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.712). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.057) is also within normal values, averaging (1.404). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (0.038). P/S Ratio (1.261) is also within normal values, averaging (24.295).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding
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