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DE vs PCAR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Deere & Company (DE) vs. PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Divergent 2026 momentum: DE has gained roughly 33–35% year to date (YTD), while PCAR has been roughly flat YTD despite a positive one-year return.
- Different cycles: Deere leans on a construction-and-technology recovery to offset weak large-agriculture demand, whereas PACCAR leans on parts and financial services to cushion a softer truck cycle.
- Regulatory overhang vs. cyclical headwinds: Deere faces fresh Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) scrutiny, while PACCAR contends with cooling Class 8 truck deliveries.
- Income profile differs: PACCAR offers a notably higher dividend yield than Deere, reflecting its strong recurring parts and financing cash flows.
- Valuation gap: Deere trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than PACCAR, partly reflecting its technology-led growth narrative.
- Both are quality industrials with disciplined balance sheets, but their risk and reward drivers are distinct rather than interchangeable.
Introduction
Deere & Company and PACCAR Inc are two of the most recognizable names in North American industrial equipment, yet they operate in very different markets. Deere is the world's largest maker of agricultural machinery, alongside construction and forestry equipment, while PACCAR manufactures premium commercial trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing cyclical industrials with distinct demand drivers — farm economics and infrastructure for Deere, freight and fleet replacement for PACCAR. Both companies also run sizable captive financing arms that smooth earnings across cycles. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning helps clarify where each name currently stands in the broader industrial sector.
DE Overview and Recent Performance
Deere & Company (DE) designs and manufactures agricultural, construction, and forestry equipment, supported by a large financial services segment and a growing precision-agriculture technology platform. In recent weeks, the stock has been one of the stronger performers among large-cap industrials, gaining roughly 33–35% YTD and trading well above its 200-day moving average. The advance reflects a recovery in construction and small-agriculture demand, which has offset persistent softness in large-agriculture equipment, where North American industry sales remain down sharply.
Several developments have shaped sentiment. Deere raised its full-year net income outlook after a stronger-than-expected quarter and completed the acquisition of Tenna LLC, a construction technology and asset-tracking firm. Management has framed the current period as the bottom of the agriculture cycle, with recovery expected to build into 2027. At the same time, a newly announced joint FTC and USDA inquiry into anticompetitive conduct in agricultural equipment has introduced regulatory uncertainty, prompting a recent pullback from multi-year highs. Tariffs on imported components also remain a margin headwind.
PCAR Overview and Recent Performance
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) is a leading global manufacturer of light-, medium-, and heavy-duty commercial trucks, operating through its Truck, Parts, and Financial Services segments. In recent weeks, the stock has traded below its earlier-year highs and is roughly flat YTD, even as its one-year return remains positive. The softer tape reflects a cyclical downturn in new truck demand, with global deliveries declining year over year in the most recent quarter.
PACCAR's earnings story is anchored by its recurring businesses. The parts operation, which distributes aftermarket components through a large network of distribution centers, continues to generate strong pre-tax income, while the financial services arm adds a steadier profit stream. Management has pointed to improving freight fundamentals and an expanding production backlog as early signs of a U.S. and Canada truck-market inflection. Analysts have nonetheless trimmed price targets in recent weeks, reflecting caution around near-term volumes and input-cost pressures. The company maintains a strong balance sheet and a dividend yield well above Deere's.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is their cyclical exposure. Deere's fortunes are tied to crop economics, farm income, and infrastructure spending, while PACCAR's are tied to freight demand, fleet utilization, and truck replacement cycles. Both companies use captive financing divisions to smooth results, but PACCAR's parts business provides a more recurring, high-margin cushion that tends to stabilize earnings through downturns.
On momentum, DE has clearly led in 2026, driven by a construction upswing and technology catalysts such as precision-agriculture subscriptions and the Tenna acquisition. PCAR, by contrast, is earlier in its recovery, with order and backlog trends improving but deliveries still soft. Risk profiles also differ: Deere carries a distinct regulatory overhang from the FTC/USDA inquiry and tariff exposure, while PACCAR faces cost and volume pressure amid mixed analyst estimate revisions. From a valuation and income standpoint, PACCAR screens cheaper on a forward P/E basis and offers a meaningfully higher dividend yield, whereas Deere commands a premium multiple for its technology-driven growth narrative.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalyst momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor DE in the current environment. The stock's sustained uptrend, above-average momentum, and multiple positive catalysts — a construction recovery, raised guidance, and technology acquisitions — present a more constructive near-term setup. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Deere's regulatory scrutiny and premium valuation introduce downside risk, while PACCAR's cheaper multiple, higher dividend yield, and stabilizing order trends offer a different risk-reward profile that may appeal to income-oriented and value-focused investors. Neither stock is inherently stronger; each simply suits a different investment thesis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DE is a Buy and PCAR is a Hold.
DE in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
DE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 33 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DE's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DE as a result. In 49 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DE just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where DE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +5.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DE advanced for three days, in 200 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for DE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
DE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DE entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. DE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: DE's P/B Ratio (6.431) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.407). P/E Ratio (37.007) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.377). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.600) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. DE's P/S Ratio (3.868) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.169).
PCAR in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 26, 2026
PCAR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 38 cases where PCAR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PCAR advanced for three days, in 199 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PCAR as a result. In 52 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PCAR turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PCAR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator for PCAR entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.661) is normal, around the industry mean (2.407). P/E Ratio (21.584) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.377). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.828) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.241) is also within normal values, averaging (1.169).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PCAR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
DE | PCAR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PCAR's Valuation (59) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as DE (83). This means that PCAR’s stock grew similarly to DE’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as PCAR (28). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to PCAR’s over the last 12 months.
DE's SMR Rating (49) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as PCAR (62). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to PCAR’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Price Growth Rating (27) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PCAR (62). This means that DE’s stock grew somewhat faster than PCAR’s over the last 12 months.
DE's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as PCAR (28). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to PCAR’s over the last 12 months.
| DE | PCAR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 14 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DE’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PCAR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PCAR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PCAR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PCAR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DE (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а +4.11% price change this week, while PCAR (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -1.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -2.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.48%.
Reported Earning Dates
DE is expected to report earnings on Nov 25, 2026.
PCAR is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-2.21% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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PCAR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PCAR has been loosely correlated with TWI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PCAR jumps, then TWI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PCAR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR | 100% | +0.81% | ||
| TWI - PCAR | 56% Loosely correlated | +6.88% | ||
| OSK - PCAR | 55% Loosely correlated | +3.99% | ||
| CNH - PCAR | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| TEX - PCAR | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.72% | ||
| ACA - PCAR | 44% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
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