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CVCO vs GRBK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cavco Industries (CVCO) vs. Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVCO operates in factory-built (manufactured and modular) housing, while GRBK is a land-focused, site-built homebuilder concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
- CVCO is carrying stronger recent momentum, with record quarterly revenue, a 63% year-over-year backlog increase, and a new data-center workforce housing demand channel.
- GRBK maintains an industry-leading homebuilding gross margin near 28% but faces falling earnings per share and rising buyer incentives.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: CVCO is the favored ticker of the two, based on trend consistency, backlog visibility, and strengthening analyst positioning.
- For deeper coverage, explore CVCO Major News and CVCO Today's Price Move, as well as GRBK Major News and GRBK Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Both CVCO and GRBK participate in the U.S. housing market, yet they serve it through fundamentally different business models. Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes and related financial services, while Green Brick Partners develops land and builds site-built homes. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning diverge between a manufactured-housing leader and a high-margin regional homebuilder. Both companies are navigating elevated input costs and affordability pressures, making the contrast in their recent momentum and balance-sheet strategies a useful lens for evaluating the broader housing sector.
CVCO Overview and Recent Performance
Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) is one of the largest producers of factory-built homes in the United States, operating through Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services segments. In recent weeks the company reported record quarterly revenue of approximately $656 million, up 18% year over year, alongside a record 5,972 homes shipped. Its order backlog rose 63% from the prior year, representing roughly 8 to 10 weeks of production, and management highlighted an emerging source of demand from data-center workforce housing. These catalysts have coincided with a series of analyst price-target increases and an overall "Strong Buy" consensus. However, gross margin has compressed to about 22.5% as sharply higher steel costs weigh on profitability, a factor tempering an otherwise constructive narrative. The company continues to return capital through buybacks while holding roughly $272 million in unrestricted cash.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) is a land-focused homebuilder concentrated in high-demand infill and infill-adjacent submarkets, primarily across Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Its differentiated model of owning and self-developing land has supported an industry-leading homebuilding gross margin near 28% even amid affordability headwinds. In recent market activity, however, profitability has softened: third-quarter net income declined roughly 24% year over year, and earnings per share came in below the prior-year period as the company raised incentives to roughly 11% of new orders to sustain sales pace. Book value per share grew 14% to $46.10, and leverage remains low, with net homebuilding debt to total capital near 9.6%. The shares trade at a comparatively modest price-to-earnings multiple, reflecting investor caution about the cyclical housing backdrop.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is business model and margin structure. GRBK generates notably higher gross margins from its land-development expertise, but it is more directly exposed to mortgage rates, buyer affordability, and incentive pressure on site-built homes. CVCO operates at lower gross margins yet benefits from a distinct demand tailwind: affordable factory-built housing, an expanding backlog, and a developing workforce-housing channel tied to remote data-center projects. On momentum, CVCO has been trending more constructively, with rising revenue and positive analyst revisions, while GRBK has seen earnings decline even as it preserves superior margins and a strong balance sheet. Risk profiles differ as well: CVCO faces steel-cost inflation, while GRBK faces slowing sales pace and elevated incentives.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward CVCO. The stock's combination of record revenue, a sharply higher backlog, a new commercial demand catalyst, and strengthening analyst sentiment suggests more consistent positive trend signals than GRBK, whose industry-leading margins are being offset by declining earnings and a softer demand backdrop. While GRBK offers an attractive valuation and low leverage, its near-term momentum is less favorable. The AI's relative preference for CVCO reflects probabilistic positioning based on trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative market standing rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVCO is a Buy and GRBK is a Hold.
CVCO sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for CVCO moved above the 200-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVCO as a result. In 57 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVCO just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVCO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
CVCO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CVCO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +21.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVCO advanced for three days, in 242 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 178 of 239 cases where CVCO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CVCO moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 72%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
CVCO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVCO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVCO's P/B Ratio (4.422) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.910). P/E Ratio (27.465) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.060) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.842) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
GRBK in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
GRBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 32 of the 40 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 65 cases where GRBK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GRBK as a result. In 58 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
GRBK moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 17 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.446) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (9.733) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CVCO | GRBK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (47) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVCO (82). This means that GRBK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVCO’s over the last 12 months.
CVCO's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (31). This means that CVCO’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
CVCO's SMR Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (54). This means that CVCO’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
CVCO's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (50). This means that CVCO’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as CVCO (24). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to CVCO’s over the last 12 months.
| CVCO | GRBK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 74% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVCO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while GRBK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVCO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVCO’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GRBK’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVCO’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GRBK’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
CVCO (@Homebuilding) experienced а +1.19% price change this week, while GRBK (@Homebuilding) price change was +3.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVCO is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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CVCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVCO has been loosely correlated with TOL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVCO jumps, then TOL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVCO | 100% | -2.38% | ||
| TOL - CVCO | 66% Loosely correlated | -2.65% | ||
| LGIH - CVCO | 60% Loosely correlated | -5.71% | ||
| LEGH - CVCO | 60% Loosely correlated | -2.14% | ||
| GRBK - CVCO | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.01% | ||
| LEN - CVCO | 58% Loosely correlated | -5.37% | ||
More | ||||
GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | -4.01% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -4.39% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -3.89% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -2.65% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -2.96% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -3.80% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
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