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GRBK vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both GRBK and PHM are publicly traded homebuilders focused on residential construction, with PHM operating at a significantly larger scale.
- Recent market activity shows GRBK with stronger year-to-date returns compared to PHM, though both have faced sector-wide pressures from interest rates and housing demand.
- Upcoming second-quarter 2026 earnings releases—PHM on July 22 and GRBK on July 29—represent key near-term catalysts for both stocks.
- PHM has emphasized share repurchases and maintained low leverage in recent quarters, while GRBK reported increased home starts and solid gross margins in its latest reported period.
- Relative performance reflects trade-offs between GRBK’s higher-beta growth profile and PHM’s established market position and capital return programs.
Introduction
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) and PulteGroup (PHM) are two homebuilding companies whose stocks are frequently compared by investors seeking exposure to the U.S. residential real estate sector. This analysis examines their business models, recent price behavior, and positioning amid evolving interest-rate and housing-market conditions. The comparison is relevant for traders monitoring sector momentum and for longer-term investors evaluating relative value, risk, and growth characteristics within the homebuilder space.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, Inc. develops and builds homes primarily in high-growth markets such as Dallas-Fort Worth and Atlanta. In recent weeks, the stock has traded with notable volatility around the $70–$76 range, posting year-to-date gains that outpaced broader market benchmarks. Recent market activity has been influenced by anticipation of the company’s second-quarter 2026 results, scheduled for release after market close on July 29. Earlier reported data showed an increase in home starts and healthy gross margins, supporting sentiment around operational execution. The stock’s higher-beta characteristics have contributed to amplified moves relative to peers during periods of sector rotation.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. is one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, operating across multiple brands and geographic markets. In recent weeks, shares have fluctuated near the $125–$130 level, delivering more modest year-to-date returns than some smaller peers. Market positioning has been supported by ongoing capital-return initiatives, including expanded share-repurchase authorizations announced earlier in the year. The company is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, providing an update on order trends and margins. Recent community expansions, such as a new Del Webb project, reflect continued land-acquisition activity amid a measured housing environment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
GRBK and PHM differ markedly in scale, with PHM commanding a substantially larger market capitalization and broader geographic footprint. Business models overlap in residential construction, yet GRBK maintains a more concentrated regional focus that can amplify sensitivity to local market dynamics. Growth drivers for GRBK have recently included higher home-start volumes, while PHM has highlighted share repurchases and a conservative debt-to-capital ratio. Recent momentum has favored GRBK on a year-to-date basis, though PHM offers greater liquidity and a track record of capital returns. Risk factors include interest-rate sensitivity for both, with GRBK carrying a higher beta that may translate to larger swings. Sector exposure remains aligned, yet investor sentiment has reflected differing valuations and operational scale in recent market activity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings visibility, and relative positioning ahead of upcoming reports, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to PHM. The larger builder’s combination of share-repurchase activity, lower leverage, and established market presence provides a stability edge in the current environment, though GRBK’s stronger recent returns and operational growth indicators keep both names competitive depending on risk appetite and timeframe.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Hold and PHM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 8 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а -2.41% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was -1.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.97% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| GRBK | PHM | GRBK / PHM | |
| Capitalization | 3.04B | 24.1B | 13% |
| EBITDA | 376M | 2.61B | 14% |
| Gain YTD | 12.879 | 8.314 | 155% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.65 | 12.92 | 82% |
| Revenue | 2.03B | 16.4B | 12% |
| Total Cash | 132M | 1.89B | 7% |
| Total Debt | 292M | 2.3B | 13% |
GRBK | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 51 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (51) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (64). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (38). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (58). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (57). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (23). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 76% | 6 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 57% |
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +0.86% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -1.76% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| TMHC - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -2.76% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -2.45% | ||
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PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.