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GRBK vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GRBK delivered industry-leading homebuilding gross margins near 28% and grew net new orders year over year in its latest quarter, while PHM posted declining orders and compressed margins.
- PHM offers far greater scale and geographic diversification, whereas GRBK remains concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, giving each a distinct risk profile.
- GRBK maintains an exceptionally low-leverage balance sheet, while PHM couples strong cash flow with large-scale share repurchases and a regular dividend.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on relative trend consistency, margin stability, and order momentum, Tickeron's AI currently favors GRBK over PHM.
- For more detail on each company, explore GRBK Major News and GRBK Today's Price Move, as well as PHM Major News and PHM Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are trading these and other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Both GRBK (Green Brick Partners) and PHM (PulteGroup) operate in the U.S. homebuilding sector, yet they represent very different profiles. Green Brick Partners is a regional builder concentrated in high-growth Sun Belt markets and known for owning and self-developing land. PulteGroup is one of the nation's largest homebuilders, spanning more than 45 markets with a broad brand portfolio. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors and traders evaluating how a focused, high-margin growth story stacks up against a diversified industry leader amid elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify where current momentum and resilience are strongest.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners is a diversified homebuilding and land development company with operations concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Its strategy emphasizes acquiring and self-developing land in desirable infill and infill-adjacent submarkets, which has historically supported some of the strongest gross margins among public homebuilders. In recent weeks, GRBK reported quarterly net income of $59 million, or $1.35 per diluted share, alongside homebuilding gross margins of 28.0% and a 3% year-over-year increase in net new home orders. Management has noted that demand remained resilient despite affordability pressures, supported by targeted incentives and its Trophy Signature Homes brand. The company has also emphasized balance-sheet strength, ending the period with low net homebuilding debt relative to total capital and book value per share up 14% year over year. However, elevated incentives and softer average selling prices reflect the broader challenging housing backdrop.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup is one of America's largest homebuilders, with operations across more than 45 markets and a brand portfolio that includes Pulte Homes, Centex, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. In recent weeks, PHM reported third-quarter revenue of roughly $3.97 billion, down 9.8% year over year, with home closings and net new orders both declining. Home sale gross margin contracted to 24.8%, reflecting higher incentives and land impairment charges. Notably, the active adult segment, led by the Del Webb brand, showed resilience with an 11% year-over-year increase in sign-ups, and the company achieved a third consecutive quarter of lower build costs per square foot. PulteGroup continues to return significant capital to shareholders, repurchasing $350 million of stock in the quarter, and maintains a strong balance sheet with roughly $1.4 billion in cash and a low debt-to-capital ratio.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a marketplace of hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor and trade thousands of different tickers across various strategies, timeframes, and risk profiles. Because not every bot fits every market regime, Tickeron curates a focused selection in its Trending AI Robots page, highlighting the systems currently best aligned with prevailing market conditions. These bots differ in trading style, holding period, performance history, and the specific sets of tickers they follow, giving traders a way to review quantitative signals rather than rely on manual analysis alone. The curated section is designed to surface the most relevant, actively monitored strategies of the moment. For investors seeking a data-driven lens on names such as GRBK and PHM, exploring Trending AI Robots may offer additional perspective.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between these two builders is scale versus focus. PHM is a diversified national operator with broad geographic exposure, a growing active adult franchise, and the financial capacity to repurchase billions in stock and pay a regular dividend. GRBK, by comparison, is a regional specialist whose self-developed land model has produced gross margins near 28%, notably above PHM's 24.8% in the same recent period. On growth drivers, GRBK has continued to expand orders and book value even amid a cooling market, while PHM has prioritized pricing discipline and cost control over volume, accepting softer closings to protect profitability. Risk factors also diverge: GRBK carries geographic concentration risk in Texas and the Southeast, whereas PHM faces broader exposure to a slowing resale market and first-time buyer affordability. In terms of market sentiment, GRBK trades at a lower valuation multiple despite higher margins, while PHM's scale and diversification have historically commanded a steadier investor base.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, order momentum, and balance-sheet positioning, Tickeron's AI currently appears to favor GRBK over PHM. Green Brick Partners has sustained industry-leading gross margins, grown net new orders, and maintained low leverage through a challenging period, qualities that tend to align with more consistent relative strength. PulteGroup remains a highly resilient, diversified operator, but its recent decline in orders, traffic, and margins presents a comparatively softer momentum profile. This assessment reflects current data and probabilistic signals rather than a definitive prediction, and relative positioning could shift as interest rates, affordability, and housing demand evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Hold and PHM is a Buy.
GRBK in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
GRBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 32 of the 40 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 65 cases where GRBK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GRBK as a result. In 58 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
GRBK moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 17 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.446) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (9.733) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PHM in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PHM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 61 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 62 cases where PHM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.939) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (13.437) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
GRBK | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 47 Fair valued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 18 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (75). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (31). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (57). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (18) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (50). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (23). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 10 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.49% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | -4.01% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -4.39% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -3.89% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -2.65% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -2.96% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -3.80% | ||
More | ||||
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