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GRBK vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Green Brick Partners (GRBK) has outperformed PulteGroup (PHM) year-to-date (YTD, a measure of performance from the start of the current year), with returns of 12.59% versus 8.88%.
- GRBK trades at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.98 compared to PHM's 11.46, suggesting relative undervaluation in recent market activity.
- PulteGroup benefits from a larger market capitalization of $24.48 billion versus GRBK's $3.07 billion, offering greater scale and diversified operations including financial services.
- Recent quarters show strong gross margins for GRBK at 29.4%, while PHM anticipates Q1 earnings amid housing affordability challenges.
- Both stocks reflect homebuilding sector trends, with GRBK driving growth through Texas expansions and PHM via analyst upgrades.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines GRBK and PHM, two prominent players in the homebuilding sector. Investors tracking residential construction trends, particularly amid fluctuating mortgage rates and housing demand, will find value here. Both companies navigate similar market dynamics like affordability constraints and supply chain pressures, yet differ in scale, geography, and momentum. Traders seeking relative performance insights in this cyclical industry can use this analysis to evaluate positioning for short-term trades or longer-term holdings in recent market conditions.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) is a diversified homebuilder focused on high-growth Sunbelt markets in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. It operates through subsidiary brands and maintains interests in financial services. In recent market activity, GRBK shares have shown resilience, with year-to-date gains of 12.59% and a current price around $70.55. Key influences include a Q4 earnings beat (EPS of $1.78 versus $1.67 expected), sustained gross margins of 29.4%, a $150 million share repurchase authorization, and expansions like new Texas communities. These factors have supported sentiment despite some share price easing over recent weeks, amid broader homebuilding volatility.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is a leading U.S. homebuilder constructing single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums under brands like Centex and Del Webb. It also provides mortgage banking and insurance services. Recent performance features a year-to-date return of 8.88% and a price near $127.40, with the stock trading between a 52-week range of $94.93 to $144.50. Momentum has been mixed in recent weeks, with gains in some sessions outpacing the market, analyst upgrades from Evercore ISI, and shares soaring alongside peers like Meritage Homes. Upcoming Q1 earnings on April 23 add anticipation, though softening orders and macroeconomic factors have pressured sentiment at times.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
GRBK and PHM both capitalize on U.S. residential demand but diverge in scale and focus. GRBK’s regional Sunbelt emphasis drives growth via land development and expansions, contrasting PHM’s national footprint and integrated financial services for steadier revenue. Recent momentum favors GRBK with superior YTD returns and lower PE valuation, while PHM offers lower volatility through its $24 billion market cap. Risk factors include housing affordability and rising costs for both, though GRBK’s buybacks signal confidence amid share repurchases. Market sentiment leans positive for homebuilders on rate cut hopes, positioning GRBK for outperformance in growth trades versus PHM’s stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward GRBK over PHM, based on stronger trend consistency, lower relative valuation (PE 9.98), recent earnings beats, and expansion catalysts in recent weeks. PHM remains competitive with scale advantages, but GRBK’s momentum suggests higher probability of near-term upside in a stabilizing housing sector.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Hold and PHM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +2.15% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.60% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +0.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +19.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+0.24% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| GRBK | PHM | GRBK / PHM | |
| Capitalization | 3.22B | 24.2B | 13% |
| EBITDA | 393M | 2.79B | 14% |
| Gain YTD | 19.071 | 8.733 | 218% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.99 | 12.28 | 89% |
| Revenue | 2.08B | 16.8B | 12% |
| Total Cash | 145M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 282M | 2.28B | 12% |
GRBK | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (53) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (67). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (37). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (54). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (43). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (19). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 76% | 17 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 64% | 7 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 76% |
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +4.51% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | +4.17% | ||
| TMHC - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -0.01% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | +4.53% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 85% Closely correlated | +3.40% | ||
| LEN - GRBK | 85% Closely correlated | +3.76% | ||
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PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.