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GRBK vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GRBK is a regional homebuilder concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, while PHM is one of the largest national homebuilders, operating across more than 45 U.S. markets.
- GRBK consistently reports the highest homebuilding gross margins among public peers (29.8% in its most recent quarter), versus PHM at roughly 25%.
- PHM offers far greater scale, a larger capital-return program, and broader geographic diversification, but has faced steeper year-over-year declines in revenue and earnings.
- Both companies are navigating affordability pressures and elevated buyer incentives, yet GRBK has shown stronger recent order growth momentum.
Introduction
Homebuilders sit at the intersection of mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and long-term housing supply dynamics, making them a closely watched area for both traders and long-term investors. This stock comparison examines GRBK (Green Brick Partners) and PHM (PulteGroup), two companies with sharply different profiles within the same industry. Green Brick Partners is a fast-growing regional operator with an emphasis on margin discipline, while PulteGroup is a diversified national builder with a mature capital-allocation model. Comparing the two offers a useful lens on the trade-offs between growth and scale in a housing market still adjusting to higher rates and shifting buyer demand.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
GRBK, based in Plano, Texas, builds homes primarily in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, focusing on infill and infill-adjacent communities in high-demand submarkets. Its self-development strategy for land has supported industry-leading margins. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted homebuilding gross margin of 29.8%, the highest among its public homebuilding peers, and grew net new home orders 19% year over year. Management cited resilient Texas demand and strength in its entry-level Trophy Signature Homes brand. The company has also been expanding its integrated financial services arm, Green Brick Mortgage, whose operating income has grown rapidly. Balance-sheet metrics remain conservative, with a net homebuilding debt-to-total capital ratio in the low single digits and total liquidity of $462 million. Recent market activity has reflected investors weighing strong operational execution against a housing backdrop marked by elevated incentives and affordability constraints.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PHM, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, is one of America's largest homebuilders, with brands including Pulte Homes, Centex, Del Webb, and DiVosta serving first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers. In its most recent quarter, the company beat earnings expectations but still reported a year-over-year decline, with total revenues down roughly 10% and adjusted earnings per share down about 18%. Home sale gross margin came in around 25%, reflecting higher incentives as management worked to reduce excess speculative, or "spec," inventory. Net new orders rose 6% year over year, supported by strength in Florida. PulteGroup continues to emphasize shareholder returns, repurchasing shares aggressively and maintaining a quarterly dividend, while its net debt-to-capital ratio of about 3.3% provides considerable financial flexibility. Recent performance has reflected a balance between disciplined capital returns and softer pricing and margin trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is scale versus specialization. PHM operates a diversified national footprint with more than 45 markets and a portfolio spanning multiple buyer segments, giving it resilience when any single region softens. GRBK, by comparison, is concentrated in three high-growth Sun Belt regions, which amplifies both its upside potential and its regional risk exposure. On profitability, GRBK holds a clear edge, consistently posting the strongest gross margins in the public homebuilding space. On capital returns, PHM leads, with a larger repurchase authorization, an established dividend, and greater absolute cash generation. From a momentum standpoint, GRBK has shown stronger recent order growth, while PHM has experienced more pronounced earnings declines. Both carry low leverage, though GRBK operates with minimal net debt, whereas PHM holds a larger cash cushion.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and margin positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward GRBK in the current environment. The company's superior gross margins, double-digit order growth, and low-leverage balance sheet point to more consistent underlying trend strength, while PHM continues to contend with declining earnings and pricing pressure despite its scale and diversification. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call: PHM's national diversification and aggressive capital returns could become more attractive if broader housing conditions stabilize. Traders focused on momentum and margin quality may find GRBK better positioned, while those prioritizing scale and shareholder yield may favor PHM.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Buy and PHM is a Hold.
GRBK sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 22, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for GRBK moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 61 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 48 of the 61 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GRBK as a result. In 59 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +0.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GRBK advanced for three days, in 227 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
GRBK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.354) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (9.111) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
PHM sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PHM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 16 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 68 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +3.84% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.652) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (11.449) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
GRBK | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 31 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (74). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (35). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (57). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (73). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (35). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 11 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.93% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +5.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.20% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +7.02% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +7.27% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +5.84% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | +4.47% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | +6.25% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 81% Closely correlated | +7.39% | ||
More | ||||
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