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DHI vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- D.R. Horton maintains leadership in volume-driven entry-level housing, while Toll Brothers focuses on premium luxury segments, creating distinct market positioning.
- Recent market activity shows D.R. Horton delivering stronger year-to-date stability compared with Toll Brothers’ higher volatility amid shifting interest-rate expectations.
- Both companies operate in the same cyclical homebuilding sector but differ in growth drivers: scale and affordability for D.R. Horton versus high-end demand and brand premium for Toll Brothers.
- Analyst consensus ratings lean toward Hold for D.R. Horton and Buy for Toll Brothers, reflecting varied outlooks on margin resilience and order trends.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between D.R. Horton’s consistent cash generation and Toll Brothers’ exposure to affluent buyer sentiment.
- Market sentiment for both remains tied to mortgage-rate dynamics and housing affordability, with no clear dominance in recent weeks.
Introduction
D.R. Horton and Toll Brothers represent two prominent players in the U.S. residential construction industry, each serving different segments of the housing market. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock behavior, and relative positioning within the current economic environment characterized by evolving interest rates and consumer demand. Institutional investors, portfolio managers, and active traders evaluating cyclical sectors or seeking exposure to homebuilding may find this analysis useful for assessing diversification opportunities and risk-adjusted returns. The review draws on verifiable developments from recent market activity to highlight contrasts without favoring either security.
D.R. Horton Overview and Recent Performance
D.R. Horton operates as the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, primarily targeting entry-level and move-up buyers through a diversified portfolio of homes and financial services. In recent weeks, the stock has shown resilience following the company’s fiscal second-quarter earnings release, which included consolidated revenue of approximately $7.6 billion and diluted earnings per share of $2.24. These results exceeded analyst expectations and supported updated full-year revenue guidance between $33.5 billion and $34.5 billion. Share repurchases and a declared quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share further underscored capital-return initiatives. Sentiment has benefited from operational scale and margin management, although broader market comparisons indicate underperformance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis. Recent market activity reflects steady order trends amid ongoing affordability considerations.
Toll Brothers Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers specializes in luxury single-family homes and maintains a premium brand focused on affluent buyers across select markets. Recent market activity has featured continued expansion of active communities and new project announcements, including luxury townhome developments. The company’s fiscal second-quarter earnings are scheduled for release shortly, with expectations centered on revenue and margin trends in a higher-end segment. Stock performance in recent weeks has displayed greater sensitivity to shifts in luxury demand and interest-rate sentiment, resulting in more pronounced price fluctuations compared with broader sector peers. Analyst coverage reflects a constructive stance on long-term positioning, supported by a solid balance sheet and backlog management. Overall sentiment remains influenced by premium pricing power and selective land acquisition strategies.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
D.R. Horton and Toll Brothers differ fundamentally in scale and target demographics. D.R. Horton emphasizes high-volume production of more affordable homes, enabling broader market reach and steadier order flow, whereas Toll Brothers concentrates on luxury properties that command higher margins but face narrower demand pools. Growth drivers reflect these distinctions: D.R. Horton benefits from operational efficiency and land-bank efficiency, while Toll Brothers leverages brand strength and customization. Recent momentum shows D.R. Horton with more stable price action amid earnings beats, contrasted with Toll Brothers’ greater sensitivity to sentiment shifts in premium segments. Risk factors include shared exposure to interest-rate movements and construction costs, yet Toll Brothers carries additional concentration risk in higher-price-point markets. Sector exposure remains identical within homebuilding, though market sentiment currently favors volume resilience over luxury positioning in the prevailing environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings consistency, order stability, and relative positioning within recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models assign a modestly higher probability of favorable near-term characteristics to D.R. Horton over Toll Brothers. This assessment rests on stronger recent earnings delivery and volume-driven resilience rather than definitive outperformance. Probabilistic language underscores that outcomes remain subject to macroeconomic variables, and no prediction is guaranteed.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a StrongBuy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а +5.83% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +6.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +3.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +17.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+3.23% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| DHI | TOL | DHI / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 44B | 13.9B | 317% |
| EBITDA | 4.03B | 1.7B | 238% |
| Gain YTD | 8.313 | 10.384 | 80% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.56 | 11.30 | 129% |
| Revenue | 33.3B | 11B | 303% |
| Total Cash | 1.92B | 1.11B | 173% |
| Total Debt | 6.63B | 2.92B | 227% |
DHI | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DHI's Valuation (62) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (67). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (56). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (63). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (47). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (25). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 66% | 20 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 63% | 8 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 64% |
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DHI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DHI has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DHI jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.