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GRBK vs MHO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. M/I Homes (MHO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GRBK and MHO are both single-family homebuilders facing the same macro headwinds — higher mortgage rates and affordability pressure — but they diverge sharply in margins and execution.
- Green Brick Partners has sustained industry-leading homebuilding gross margins near 28%, while M/I Homes' gross margin has compressed to roughly 21%, reflecting differing land and pricing strategies.
- Green Brick's cancellation rate has remained relatively low (near 8%), whereas M/I Homes has held at a higher 12% rate in recent quarters, signaling comparatively firmer demand.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Green Brick Partners (GRBK) — based on more consistent margins, lower cancellations, and stronger balance-sheet flexibility relative to M/I Homes.
- Explore deeper coverage of each name: GRBK Major News and GRBK Today's Price Move, plus MHO Major News and MHO Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across the market, explore the curated Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Homebuilder stocks offer a direct read on consumer demand, mortgage rates, and the broader housing cycle, making direct comparisons between similarly sized builders especially useful for investors weighing sector exposure. GRBK and MHO both operate in this cyclical space, yet their recent relative performance and margin profiles have diverged. This stock comparison is relevant for traders monitoring momentum and for longer-horizon investors assessing which company is better positioned to withstand a cooling housing market. Both firms reported quarterly results in recent weeks, offering a timely basis for evaluating their market positioning side by side.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) is a diversified homebuilding and land development company based in Plano, Texas, operating through subsidiary builders across Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Its differentiated model centers on owning and self-developing land in infill and infill-adjacent submarkets, which management credits with protecting margins against rising lot costs. In its most recent quarterly report, Green Brick delivered 978 homes (up 3% year over year) and generated net new orders of 926, also up 3%. Homebuilding gross margin of 28.0% remains among the highest in its public peer group, even as incentives on new orders stayed elevated near 11%. Book value per share rose 14% year over year to $46.10, and the company retired $50 million of senior notes while repurchasing stock — signs of a deliberately conservative, investment-grade-style balance sheet. Sentiment has been tempered by lower average selling prices and softer revenue versus the prior year, but relative resilience in order activity and margins has supported the stock's standing within the sector.
MHO Overview and Recent Performance
M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) is a Columbus, Ohio-based builder of single-family homes serving first-time, move-up, and luxury buyers across roughly 17 markets, including the Midwest, Florida, and Texas. Recent quarters have shown clearer signs of demand and margin pressure. In its latest report, revenue declined 5% year over year to about $1.08 billion, while net income fell to $66.6 million, or $2.56 per diluted share, from $3.92 a share a year earlier. Home deliveries and new contracts each slipped 2%, and the gross margin came in at 20.9% (21.3% excluding inventory charges), down materially from prior-year levels. The company's cancellation rate held at 12%. M/I Homes maintains a strong financial position, with record shareholders' equity of roughly $3.3 billion, cash near $621 million, and no borrowings under its $900 million credit facility; however, management has described market conditions as "increasingly difficult," and sell-side estimate revisions have trended downward in recent weeks.
Trending AI Robots
For investors seeking a data-driven perspective on comparisons like this one, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of automated trading strategies. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they follow, giving users a range of approaches to evaluate. Browsing the Trending AI Robots list can help traders identify which algorithmic signals are currently aligned with shifting market regimes across sectors including homebuilders.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two builders lies in their operating models and margin resilience. Green Brick's self-developed land strategy has historically translated into structurally higher gross margins — around 28% versus M/I Homes' roughly 21% — and a lower cancellation rate, suggesting comparatively firmer buyer demand in its Texas-heavy footprint. M/I Homes, by contrast, is more geographically diversified and larger by revenue and unit volume, but it has absorbed sharper margin compression and weaker estimate-revision momentum. On the balance sheet, both are conservatively financed; M/I Homes holds a larger absolute cash position, while Green Brick runs among the lowest net-debt-to-capital ratios in its peer set. Risk factors are shared — rising mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and inventory charges — but the relative positioning of each stock reflects how investors are weighing those pressures against execution quality and near-term earnings trends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin durability, cancellation-rate stability, and balance-sheet flexibility, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward GRBK (Green Brick Partners) over MHO (M/I Homes). The signal is probabilistic rather than definitive: Green Brick's ability to sustain peer-leading gross margins and relatively low cancellations through a softening market suggests more resilient relative positioning, even as both companies contend with the same macro headwinds. M/I Homes' stronger scale and cash reserves remain meaningful, but its recent earnings misses, higher cancellation rate, and downward estimate revisions point to comparatively weaker near-term momentum. Investors should weigh these factors within their own risk framework rather than treating the verdict as a certainty.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a StrongBuy and MHO is a Hold.
GRBK's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for GRBK moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 18 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GRBK as a result. In 56 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 66 cases where GRBK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
GRBK moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
GRBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.470) is normal, around the industry mean (1.946). P/E Ratio (9.895) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.029). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
MHO's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for MHO moved out of oversold territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MHO as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MHO just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where MHO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MHO advanced for three days, in 234 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
MHO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for MHO moved below the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MHO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
MHO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MHO entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.052) is normal, around the industry mean (1.946). P/E Ratio (11.037) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.029). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MHO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
GRBK | MHO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 47 Fair valued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 39 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 70 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MHO's Valuation (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (47). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (39). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (70). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to MHO’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (56). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (23). This means that MHO’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | MHO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 11 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 62% | 19 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MHO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MHO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MHO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MHO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +5.39% price change this week, while MHO (@Homebuilding) price change was +4.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +6.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
MHO is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+6.38% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | -0.92% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | -3.08% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 85% Closely correlated | -0.60% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -1.82% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 81% Closely correlated | -2.00% | ||
More | ||||
MHO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MHO has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MHO jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| CXSE | 32.94 | -0.05 | -0.15% |
| WisdomTree China ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (CXSE) | |||
| ASMF | 25.93 | -0.29 | -1.09% |
| Virtus AlphaSimplex Managed Futures ETF | |||
| XLRI | 21.83 | -0.29 | -1.33% |
| State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Premium Income ETF (XLRI) | |||
| PFFR | 16.09 | -0.36 | -2.19% |
| InfraCap REIT Preferred ETF (PFFR) | |||
| ETV | 13.95 | -0.56 | -3.86% |
| Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund | |||