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HUBS vs SAP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? HubSpot (HUBS) vs. SAP SE (SAP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HUBS is a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) and marketing software provider for small-to-mid-sized businesses, while SAP is a large-cap enterprise software leader focused on cloud ERP (enterprise resource planning).
- HubSpot has faced a sharp sentiment reset after cutting its customer-growth forecast and announcing a 7% workforce reduction, sending shares roughly 53% lower over the past 12 months.
- SAP is sustaining roughly 24% cloud revenue growth, with current cloud backlog near €23 billion, up 26% year over year, supporting a steadier growth narrative.
- Both companies are pivoting toward AI, but SAP's scale and backlog visibility contrast with HubSpot's higher-growth, higher-volatility profile.
- Risk and reward differ materially: HubSpot offers a lower valuation after its pullback, while SAP carries a premium multiple backed by more predictable cash flow.
Introduction
Comparing HUBS and SAP offers a useful lens on two very different segments of the software market. HubSpot is a fast-growing, mid-cap CRM and marketing platform serving small and mid-market businesses, while SAP is a global enterprise software giant undergoing a multi-year shift to cloud ERP. Their relative performance in recent weeks highlights how growth expectations, AI strategy, and market positioning can diverge sharply. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing high-growth software names against large-cap, cash-generative enterprise vendors, as well as for traders monitoring momentum and sentiment shifts across the technology sector.
HUBS Overview and Recent Performance
HUBS, or HubSpot, provides a unified, AI-enabled customer platform that includes marketing, sales, and service hubs built on a Smart CRM. The company targets small and mid-sized businesses and has more than 300,000 customers globally. In recent quarters, revenue has continued to grow at a roughly 18–20% pace, and the company has expanded profitability while pushing an "agentic" AI strategy centered on tools such as Customer Agent, Prospecting Agent, and Data Agent.
Despite solid top-line results, sentiment has deteriorated in recent market activity. HubSpot lowered its customer-growth assumptions to roughly 5,000–6,000 net additions per quarter, down sharply from earlier expectations, citing changes to its AI pricing model and a more cautious software-buying environment. The shares fell sharply after that update and now trade well below their 52-week high. The company subsequently announced a restructuring affecting about 7% of its workforce as part of an AI-focused reorganization, while affirming its near-term financial guidance. This combination of slower customer momentum and organizational change has kept the stock under pressure and below key moving averages, a sign of weak near-term trend.
SAP Overview and Recent Performance
SAP, formally SAP SE, is one of the world's largest enterprise software companies, best known for its ERP systems and its "RISE with SAP" cloud migration program. The company has been executing a long-running transition from on-premise licenses toward cloud subscriptions and Business AI. In recent reporting, SAP posted cloud revenue growth of roughly 24% year over year, with its Cloud ERP Suite growing about 27% and representing the large majority of cloud revenue.
Current cloud backlog, a key forward-looking metric for committed future revenue, reached nearly €23 billion, up about 26% year over year. Total revenue grew roughly 11%, and non-IFRS (adjusted) operating profit continued to expand, while free cash flow remained strong. SAP also announced a share repurchase program of up to €10 billion. Analysts have recently raised price targets, reflecting confidence in the AI-driven cloud transition. Still, the company faces some headwinds, including declining legacy software-license and support revenue and modest margin dilution from recent acquisitions, which investors are watching closely.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two companies is scale and market focus. HUBS serves small and mid-sized customers with a land-and-expand CRM model, which historically produced rapid customer growth but also leaves revenue sensitive to changes in small-business spending. SAP serves large enterprises with mission-critical ERP systems, generating substantial recurring revenue and a large committed backlog that provides greater visibility.
Growth drivers differ as well. HubSpot's expansion depends on upmarket movement, multi-hub adoption, and monetizing AI agents and usage-based credits. SAP's growth hinges on migrating its installed base to the cloud and embedding AI across its ERP suite. On momentum, SAP has shown greater relative strength and trend consistency in recent weeks, while HubSpot has experienced a sharper drawdown and more volatile sentiment. Risk factors also diverge: HubSpot faces execution uncertainty around its AI pricing reset and restructuring, whereas SAP must manage declining legacy revenue and acquisition-related margin pressure. Sector exposure is broadly similar—both are application software companies—but their market positioning, valuation multiples, and cash-flow profiles are quite different.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, backlog visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SAP in the current environment. SAP's steadier uptrend, accelerating current cloud backlog, strong free cash flow, and constructive analyst revisions suggest more stable momentum and clearer near-term catalysts. HubSpot's fundamentals remain intact, and its lower valuation could appeal to contrarian strategies, but the recent customer-growth reset and restructuring introduce higher execution uncertainty. In probabilistic terms, the AI's preference leans toward the name exhibiting greater trend stability and visibility, though the balance could shift if HubSpot's AI monetization and customer momentum begin to reaccelerate.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HUBS is a Hold and SAP is a Buy.
HUBS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
HUBS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HUBS moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HUBS as a result. In 68 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HUBS turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
HUBS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for HUBS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The 50-day moving average for HUBS moved above the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +8.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HUBS advanced for three days, in 230 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 153 of 218 cases where HUBS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HUBS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.808) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.902). P/E Ratio (79.919) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.583). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.247) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.618) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUBS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for SAP turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SAP saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +5.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAP advanced for three days, in 178 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 140 of 283 cases where SAP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SAP moved out of overbought territory on October 29, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 38 of 66 cases where SAP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SAP turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
SAP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SAP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.027) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.902). P/E Ratio (34.817) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.583). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.610) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.653) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
HUBS | SAP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 49 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 56 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 4 | 31 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SAP's Valuation (80) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as HUBS (88) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to HUBS’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's Profit vs Risk Rating (59) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HUBS (100) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew somewhat faster than HUBS’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's SMR Rating (49) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as HUBS (76) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to HUBS’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as HUBS (59) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to HUBS’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's P/E Growth Rating (56) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HUBS (94) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew somewhat faster than HUBS’s over the last 12 months.
| HUBS | SAP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 73% | 13 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 30% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HUBS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SAP’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- HUBS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SAP’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HUBS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SAP’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HUBS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SAP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HUBS (@Packaged Software) experienced а -9.82% price change this week, while SAP (@Packaged Software) price change was -2.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -1.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.80%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
HUBS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
SAP is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-1.57% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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SAP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SAP has been closely correlated with CRM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SAP jumps, then CRM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SAP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAP | 100% | -1.42% | ||
| CRM - SAP | 67% Closely correlated | -1.76% | ||
| NOW - SAP | 64% Loosely correlated | +2.97% | ||
| HUBS - SAP | 63% Loosely correlated | -3.14% | ||
| PCOR - SAP | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.96% | ||
| GWRE - SAP | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.86% | ||
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