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MT vs NUE
MT vs NUE Stock Comparison: Global Reach vs U.S. Resilience
Key Takeaways
- ArcelorMittal (MT) delivered a strong Q4 2025 earnings beat with $0.86 EPS versus $0.55 expected, driving YTD gains of over 35%, outpacing Nucor (NUE).
- NUE reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.73 amid seasonal pressures but guides for higher Q1 2026 earnings across segments, supported by 5% steel mill shipment growth outlook.
- MT benefits from global diversification and mining assets like iron ore, while NUE leverages U.S.-focused low-cost EAF production and infrastructure backlogs.
- Both face steel sector volatility from tariffs and pricing, but NUE's lower debt and dividend streak enhance stability; MT's decarbonization investments signal long-term upside.
- Recent momentum favors MT's scale (higher EBITDA, revenue), but NUE trades at a premium P/E reflecting U.S. policy tailwinds.
Introduction
ArcelorMittal (MT) and Nucor (NUE) stand as leading steel producers navigating a cyclical industry marked by tariff shifts, infrastructure demand, and decarbonization pressures. MT, the world's largest steelmaker by volume, offers global exposure across integrated steel and mining operations. NUE, North America's top producer, excels in efficient electric arc furnace (EAF) mini-mills using recycled scrap. This MT vs NUE stock comparison suits value-oriented investors eyeing relative performance in basic materials, traders tracking sector momentum amid U.S. policy changes, and those assessing trade-offs in geographic focus, cost structures, and growth catalysts in the current steel market environment.
MT Overview and Recent Performance
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT), headquartered in Luxembourg, operates as an integrated steel and mining giant with facilities in Europe, North/South America, Asia, and Africa. It produces flat and long steel products for automotive, construction, and energy sectors, alongside iron ore and coal mining. In recent market activity, MT shares have surged over 35% YTD, reflecting robust Q4 2025 results with EBITDA of $6.54 billion for the full year and net income of $3.15 billion. The quarter's $0.86 EPS beat estimates by 56%, despite softer revenue, fueled by cost controls and stabilizing demand. Sentiment has brightened on €1.3 billion EAF investment in Dunkirk for decarbonization and renewable energy expansion to 2.8GW by 2028, countering Europe overcapacity and import risks while leveraging iron ore price gains.
NUE Overview and Recent Performance
Nucor Corporation (NUE), based in Charlotte, North Carolina, is North America's largest steel producer, emphasizing low-cost EAF technology across steel mills, products, and raw materials segments. It supplies sheet, plate, structural steel, and bars to construction, energy, and automotive markets primarily in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Recent weeks saw NUE shares consolidate near 52-week highs around $183 after Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.73 and net sales of $7.69 billion, amid seasonal volume dips and margin pressures from higher costs. Positive guidance for Q1 2026 earnings growth across segments, targeting 5% steel mill shipment increases, bolsters outlook amid strong backlogs in infrastructure and energy. Tariff uncertainties weigh on sentiment, offset by operational efficiency and $1.2 billion shareholder returns in 2025.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MT and NUE diverge in business models: MT's integrated operations yield higher revenue ($61B TTM) and EBITDA ($7.4B), bolstered by mining for raw material security, versus NUE's scrap-based EAF focus enabling lower costs and flexibility ($32B revenue). Growth drivers contrast MT's global volume leadership and 2026 decarbonization projects against NUE's U.S. infrastructure/energy backlogs and shipment growth. Recent momentum tilts to MT's 35%+ YTD surge post-earnings beat, outpacing NUE's steadier climb amid tariff talks. Risk factors include MT's exposure to Europe/China imports and higher debt ($14.9B), while NUE contends with sheet pricing volatility but maintains lower leverage ($6.9B) and a 52-year dividend streak. Both share steel sector headwinds like cyclical demand, yet NUE's domestic tilt offers tariff protection; MT's scale provides diversification. Market sentiment favors NUE's execution stability over MT's broader but volatile positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor NUE over MT, based on superior U.S.-centric trend consistency, lower volatility, robust Q1 2026 guidance, and protective policy positioning amid steel cycle recovery. NUE's capital returns and backlog strength yield higher probabilistic near-term stability, though MT's earnings trajectory and global catalysts present compelling upside in a diversified portfolio context.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MT is a StrongBuy and NUE is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNUE’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- MT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NUE’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NUE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NUE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MT (@Steel) experienced а -3.17% price change this week, while NUE (@Steel) price change was +1.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -4.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
MT is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
NUE is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (-4.32% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| MT | NUE | MT / NUE | |
| Capitalization | 52.3B | 57.9B | 90% |
| EBITDA | 3.99B | 5.03B | 79% |
| Gain YTD | 48.190 | 56.494 | 85% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.59 | 25.24 | 70% |
| Revenue | 62B | 34.2B | 181% |
| Total Cash | 4.36B | 2.48B | 176% |
| Total Debt | 13.7B | 7.12B | 192% |
MT | NUE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 22 Undervalued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 78 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 7 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MT's Valuation (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (22). This means that MT’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
MT's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Steel industry is in the same range as NUE (26). This means that MT’s stock grew similarly to NUE’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's SMR Rating (78) in the Steel industry is in the same range as MT (95). This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to MT’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Steel industry is in the same range as MT (38). This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to MT’s over the last 12 months.
NUE's P/E Growth Rating (33) in the Steel industry is in the same range as MT (61). This means that NUE’s stock grew similarly to MT’s over the last 12 months.
| MT | NUE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 69% | 6 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 66% | 20 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 74% |
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MT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MT has been loosely correlated with TX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MT jumps, then TX could also see price increases.
NUE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NUE has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NUE jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.