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PHM vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PulteGroup (PHM) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Valuation gap: Both stocks trade below intrinsic estimates, with PHM showing a modest discount and TOL a deeper undervaluation.
- Momentum: PHM’s price has stabilized after a recent earnings dip, while TOL is on a short‑term pullback but retains strong YTD upside.
- Dividend profile: Both companies offer low‑yield dividends (~0.9%), emphasizing cash returns through buybacks.
- Risk factors: PHM faces margin pressure from high incentives; TOL’s exposure to luxury‑buyer cycles and elevated building costs adds volatility.
- AI‑bot relevance: Recent market swings make both tickers suitable for momentum‑based and value‑oriented AI strategies.
Introduction
Homebuilders PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) dominate the U.S. residential construction market, yet they target distinct buyer segments. PHM focuses on a broad mix of first‑time, move‑up and active‑adult customers, while TOL concentrates on the premium, luxury segment. Traders monitoring housing‑sector dynamics, dividend‑seeking investors, and AI‑bot users all benefit from a side‑by‑side evaluation of these two stocks in the current market environment.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup reported Q1 2026 results in recent weeks, showing revenue of $3.41 billion (down 12.4% YoY) and EPS of $1.79, marginally missing consensus by $0.01. The company raised its market‑incentive rate to 10.9% of gross sales—more than three times its typical level—to bolster affordability amid elevated mortgage rates. While incentives compress margins, management announced a strategic shift toward build‑to‑order homes, which can improve cash flow and reduce inventory risk.
Financially, PHM authorized a $1.5 billion share‑repurchase program (up to 6.1% of outstanding shares) and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.26, yielding roughly 0.9%. Short interest fell 15.7% in April, suggesting reduced bearish sentiment. The stock trades around $118, near its 50‑day moving average, with a PE ratio of 11.3 and a beta of 1.23, indicating modest volatility relative to the broader market.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers posted a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat, delivering EPS of $2.19 versus $2.05 consensus and revenue of $2.15 billion, up 15.4% YoY. The luxury‑focused builder raised its quarterly dividend to $0.26 (≈0.8% yield) and continues a $1.5 billion buyback authorization. Analysts anticipate Q2 2026 earnings of $2.57 per share and revenue of $2.42 billion, with the company positioned for a potential earnings surprise.
Recent market activity shows TOL trading near $132, hovering just below its 50‑day average of $141. The stock’s PE ratio stands at 9.6, well under the consumer‑durables industry average (≈11.8) and far below peer‑group averages near 19.6. TOL’s beta of 1.39 reflects higher price sensitivity. Institutional ownership remains high (≈92%), though a notable reduction by Pacer Advisors (‑59.7% in Q4) highlights some portfolio rebalancing.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron hosts a curated Trending AI Robots page that spotlights the highest‑performing AI trading bots across thousands of tickers. Hundreds of bots operate on diverse strategies—such as momentum, mean reversion, and multi‑timeframe scalping—each with distinct performance metrics (e.g., Sharpe ratios above 1.5, win‑rates exceeding 60%). Only the bots that demonstrate consistent profitability and suitability for today’s market conditions earn a place in the Trending section. Traders can explore these bots to automate exposure to stocks like PHM and TOL, selecting the style that aligns with their risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Head-to-Head Comparison
- Business model: PHM operates across the full housing spectrum, while TOL specializes in luxury custom homes and upscale communities.
- Growth drivers: PHM’s volume expansion depends on first‑time buyer affordability and build‑to‑order efficiency; TOL’s growth hinges on affluent buyer confidence and premium pricing power.
- Recent momentum: PHM’s price has steadied after a earnings dip; TOL remains on a short‑term pullback but retains a stronger YTD performance (+3%).
- Risk factors: PHM faces margin compression from high incentives and potential inventory buildup; TOL confronts cost inflation (land, labor, insurance) and sensitivity to luxury‑buyer demand.
- Sector exposure: Both are sensitive to mortgage‑rate movements and overall housing supply constraints, yet TOL’s premium positioning offers a higher earnings‑multiple cushion.
- Market sentiment: Short‑interest reduction for PHM signals improving sentiment, whereas TOL’s elevated beta and recent price dip attract contrarian interest.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—PHM’s stable cash flow, recent incentive‑driven margin pressure, and modest valuation discount, versus TOL’s deeper undervaluation, stronger earnings beat, and higher volatility—the Tickeron AI system would likely assign a slight edge to TOL. The rationale is TOL’s lower PE, larger earnings surprise potential, and a more pronounced discount to intrinsic estimates, which together suggest a higher probability of upside in the near‑term while maintaining acceptable risk parameters.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PHM is a Hold and TOL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PHM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PHM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PHM (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.19% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -0.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +2.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.98%.
Reported Earning Dates
PHM is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+2.76% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| PHM | TOL | PHM / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 22.6B | 12.9B | 175% |
| EBITDA | 2.79B | 1.7B | 165% |
| Gain YTD | 1.188 | 2.368 | 50% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.45 | 10.48 | 109% |
| Revenue | 16.8B | 11B | 153% |
| Total Cash | 2.32B | 1.11B | 209% |
| Total Debt | 2.28B | 2.92B | 78% |
PHM | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 49 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (65) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (66). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (48). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (55). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (57). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (28). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| PHM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 13 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 60% | 18 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 61% |
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PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.