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PHM vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PulteGroup (PHM) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PHM (PulteGroup) combines a stronger balance sheet — a net cash position and an 11.2% debt-to-capital ratio — with a more diversified buyer base across 47 markets, supporting more resilient order trends.
- TOL (Toll Brothers) posted record home sales revenue of $10.8 billion in fiscal 2025, but a declining backlog, rising cancellations, and an earnings miss reflect near-term demand softness.
- Both companies are navigating elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressure, yet PHM has shown comparatively steadier relative performance and order momentum.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: PHM is the ticker of choice in this comparison, based on trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and more balanced growth drivers.
- For more context, explore PHM Major News and PHM Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- Discover how AI evaluates stocks like these by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. homebuilding, yet they occupy different corners of the market. PulteGroup operates a diversified, multi-brand platform spanning first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers, while Toll Brothers focuses on luxury and "affordable luxury" homes for a more affluent clientele. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors and traders assessing how two homebuilders with contrasting business models perform under the same macro pressures — elevated mortgage rates, softer consumer confidence, and persistent affordability headwinds. Evaluating their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify which name currently offers the more compelling risk-reward profile.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, headquartered in Atlanta, is one of America's largest homebuilders, with operations in 47 distinct markets through brands including Centex, Pulte Homes, and Del Webb. In recent weeks, the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat analyst expectations on both adjusted earnings per share ($2.88) and revenue ($4.61 billion), though both figures declined year over year. Full-year 2025 results included 29,572 home deliveries and $16.7 billion in home sale revenue, with net income of $2.2 billion.
Sentiment has been shaped by a combination of factors. Net new orders rose 4% in the quarter, and management has emphasized a diversified buyer base — roughly 38% first-time, 40% move-up, and 22% active-adult — that helps offset weakness in any single segment. The company maintains a conservative capital structure, ending 2025 with $2.0 billion in cash, a debt-to-capital ratio of 11.2%, and a net cash position. PulteGroup also repurchased $1.2 billion of stock during the year and has cited its ranking as the top homebuilder in total shareholder return over both the past year and the past decade.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, based in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States, operating in more than 60 markets across 24 states. Its focus on affluent first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers has historically insulated it from the most severe affordability pressures. In fiscal 2025, the company delivered 11,292 homes at an average price near $960,000, generating a record $10.8 billion in home sales revenue and adjusted gross margin of 27.3%.
Recent market activity, however, has reflected a more cautious tone. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.58 per share missed consensus estimates, and management pointed to "soft demand across many markets." Backlog value declined 15.4% year over year to $5.5 billion, and the cancellation rate rose to 8.3% from 5.9% a year earlier. The company also plans to exit its multifamily (apartment) development business. Despite these headwinds, Toll Brothers has maintained discipline on price and pace, and JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Overweight in early December 2025.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is diversification versus specialization. PHM spreads exposure across buyer segments and geographies, which has helped sustain order growth even as first-time and move-up demand softens. TOL relies on a more affluent customer that is less sensitive to rates but faces a shrinking backlog and rising cancellation rate, signaling weaker near-term visibility.
On financial strength, PHM holds a clear edge with a net cash position and an 11.2% debt-to-capital ratio, versus TOL's 26% debt-to-capital and 15.3% net debt-to-capital. Margin profiles differ too: TOL generates higher gross margins (27.3% adjusted in fiscal 2025), while PHM posted a lower 24.7% fourth-quarter home sale gross margin but offset this with greater volume and capital efficiency. In terms of market sentiment, PHM has shown steadier relative performance and stronger capital-return momentum, while TOL faces a more uncertain demand trajectory despite recent analyst support.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor PHM in this comparison. PulteGroup demonstrates more consistent trend stability, a stronger balance sheet, and more balanced growth drivers across buyer segments, which together suggest a more durable relative positioning in the current environment. Toll Brothers' luxury model offers higher margins, but its declining backlog, rising cancellations, and softer order visibility introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This probabilistic assessment reflects relative positioning rather than a guaranteed outcome, and conditions could shift as mortgage rates and consumer confidence evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PHM is a StrongBuy and TOL is a Buy.
PHM in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PHM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 71 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.990) is normal, around the industry mean (1.869). P/E Ratio (13.790) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.316). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 66 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.712) is normal, around the industry mean (1.869). P/E Ratio (12.679) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.316). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
PHM | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (70) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (74). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (33). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (45). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (22). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| PHM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 59% | 18 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PHM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PHM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PHM (@Homebuilding) experienced а +13.58% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +13.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +6.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+6.42% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.