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ASML or NVDA or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML Holding (ASML) shares have risen over 30% year-to-date, driven by EUV expansions into AI packaging amid a €38.8 billion backlog.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) reported Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, with strong Blackwell ramp and optics partnerships, though YTD flat at -2%.
- TSM (TSM) hit $2 trillion market cap with 23% YTD gains, fueled by AI chip orders like Apple's 100M from Arizona fab and 35% Q4 profit jump.
- All three benefit from AI demand, but TSM shows strongest relative momentum at 105% one-year return versus ASML's 103% and NVDA's 46%.
- Valuations reflect growth: NVDA at 37x trailing P/E, TSM 35x, ASML 49x, with sector risks from geopolitics and tariffs.
Introduction
ASML Holding (ASML), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) form the backbone of the AI chip ecosystem, with ASML providing essential lithography tools, NVDA designing leading GPUs, and TSM manufacturing advanced nodes. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning amid surging AI demand. Traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors eyeing semiconductor supply chain stability will find value in understanding their relative strengths, risks, and AI-fueled trajectories in the current market environment.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V., headquartered in the Netherlands, dominates extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, supplying critical equipment to chipmakers like TSM and Intel for advanced nodes essential to AI processors. In recent market activity, ASML shares have climbed over 30% year-to-date, outperforming broader indices, supported by a €38.8 billion order backlog and 12.4% systems sales growth in 2025 driven by logic and memory for AI data centers. Sentiment has been bolstered by expansions beyond EUV into advanced packaging and AI chip tools, with a milestone 1,000-watt EUV light source enhancing productivity. Despite a recent 1.8% daily dip amid market upticks, upward EPS revisions of 6.24% over the past 30 days and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) reflect optimism, though high valuations at 49x trailing P/E signal caution on export restrictions and competition.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation leads in AI GPUs and accelerated computing, powering data centers with platforms like Blackwell and networking solutions. Recent quarters show explosive growth, with Q4 revenue hitting $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, and Q1 guidance at $78 billion, fueled by data center demand and 75% gross margins. Partnerships with Lumentum and Coherent for $4 billion in optics investments underscore scaling for AI factories. However, shares are flat year-to-date at -2%, trailing peers amid consolidation and AI spending concerns, with high volume reflecting volatility. One-year returns stand at 46%, supported by CUDA ecosystem stickiness, though forward P/E around 37x prices in robust guidance without China sales assumptions. Analyst upgrades and Morgan Stanley's top pick status highlight sustained hyperscaler orders.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest pure-play foundry, produces advanced chips for NVDA, Apple, and AMD, holding over 50% in high-end AI packaging like CoWoS. Recent performance shines with shares up 23% year-to-date and 105% over one year, reaching a $2 trillion market cap. Q4 net profit jumped 35%, beating forecasts on AI demand, with monthly sales records and Apple orders for 100 million Arizona fab chips. Expansions in U.S., Japan, and Europe address capacity, though higher costs pressure margins. Consensus EPS growth of 33% for 2025 and 24% for 2026, at 35x trailing P/E, supports outperformance versus the S&P 500, tempered by geopolitical risks and tariffs.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML Holding (ASML), NVIDIA (NVDA), and TSMC (TSM) anchor the AI semiconductor chain: ASML's monopoly on EUV tools enables TSM's foundry leadership, which fabricates NVDA's GPUs. Growth drivers diverge—NVDA via software ecosystems and data center dominance (78% Q4 revenue surge), TSM through capacity ramps (3nm/2nm nodes), and ASML via High-NA EUV and packaging. Recent momentum favors TSM (15% monthly gains) over ASML (11%) and flat NVDA. Risks include TSM's Taiwan geopolitics, ASML's export curbs, and NVDA's competition from custom chips. Valuations show TSM most attractive at 26x forward P/E versus NVDA (36x) and ASML (41x), with sentiment buoyed by AI backlogs but sensitive to tariffs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM for its consistent trend strength, 23% YTD outperformance, massive AI order visibility like Apple's, and relatively attractive valuation amid foundry expansions. While NVDA offers superior growth catalysts via Blackwell scaling and ASML technological moats, TSM's positioning provides higher probability of near-term stability and upside in the AI supply chain.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -3.90% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -0.46% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated -0.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -5.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was +111.24%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -4.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -14.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was +78.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Aug 26, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-5.88% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-4.00% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | NVDA | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 717B | 4.72T | 1.98T |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 193B | 2.99T |
| Gain YTD | 66.180 | 4.599 | 44.004 |
| P/E Ratio | 65.04 | 31.95 | 40.24 |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 253B | 4.1T |
| Total Cash | 8.38B | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 12.3B | N/A |
ASML | NVDA | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 60 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 9 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 11 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 57 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 81 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (66) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (75) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ASML (85) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to NVDA’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (9) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to NVDA’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (11) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as TSM (26) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (40) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as NVDA (57) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (16) in the Semiconductors industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (81) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | NVDA | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | N/A | 4 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | N/A | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 73% | 21 days ago 82% | 6 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 86% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 78% |
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | -4.00% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 81% Closely correlated | -10.19% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | -11.51% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 78% Closely correlated | -7.35% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 71% Closely correlated | -6.46% | ||
| CAMT - ASML | 69% Closely correlated | -8.35% | ||
More | ||||
TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -2.27% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | -4.00% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -10.19% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -11.51% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -7.35% | ||
| CAMT - TSM | 66% Closely correlated | -8.35% | ||
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