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CSX or NSC or UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CSX Corporation (CSX) vs. Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) vs. Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three are North American Class I freight railroads, but they differ sharply in scale, geography, and current corporate strategy.
- UNP is the largest of the three by revenue and leads on operating efficiency, while CSX and NSC operate predominantly in the eastern United States.
- NSC and UNP are in a pending merger that would create the first transcontinental U.S. railroad, leaving CSX as the primary standalone eastern carrier.
- Operating ratio — a key efficiency measure where a lower number is better — currently favors UNP, with NSC trailing on this metric.
- Valuations diverge meaningfully: NSC trades at a premium forward earnings multiple, while CSX and UNP carry more moderate pricing relative to growth.
- Relative momentum, cost control, and merger-related catalysts are the main drivers separating these three stocks in the current market environment.
Introduction
Railroads are often viewed as a bellwether for the broader industrial economy, moving the chemicals, agricultural products, vehicles, and intermodal containers that underpin trade and manufacturing. Comparing CSX, NSC, and UNP is particularly relevant now because a major consolidation event is reshaping the sector while each company navigates its own cost and demand dynamics. This stock comparison is useful for investors seeking exposure to freight and logistics, as well as for traders watching relative performance and market positioning across three of the most closely followed U.S. rail operators.
CSX Overview and Recent Performance
CSX Corporation operates a roughly 19,500 route-mile network across 23 states and two Canadian provinces, with a freight mix weighted toward chemicals, coal, agricultural products, and intermodal shipping. In recent quarters, the company has emphasized cost discipline and profitable volume growth, and its most recent earnings showed operating income expanding year over year alongside modest revenue gains. In recent weeks, sell-side analysts have trimmed price targets while maintaining constructive ratings, citing solid rail volume performance and pricing potential into the coming years even as the shares have consolidated after a strong run. A distinctive element of the CSX story is its labor strategy: management broke from the industry playbook by negotiating directly with its unions rather than waiting for national collective bargaining, a move aimed at improving service reliability and avoiding prolonged disputes. This positioning, combined with steady intermodal expansion and selective asset divestitures, has shaped investor sentiment around the stock.
NSC Overview and Recent Performance
Norfolk Southern Corporation runs a 22-state eastern freight network and holds the most extensive intermodal footprint in the eastern U.S., with connections to major Atlantic, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes ports. Its recent results have been marked by record railway operating revenues and improving volume trends, even as profitability faced pressure from higher costs, fuel prices, and merger-related expenses. Management has pointed to volatile volumes, severe winter weather, and rising fuel costs as near-term headwinds, while highlighting stronger momentum exiting the recent quarter. The company continues to execute on its productivity framework and a multi-year cost-reduction program, and it has affirmed shareholder returns through a consistent quarterly dividend. At the same time, buybacks remain suspended pending the company's merger agreement with UNP, a factor that has tempered some of the traditional capital-return support for the stock. NSC currently trades at a premium forward earnings multiple relative to both its peers and its own historical range.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation is the largest of the three operators, running a 23-state western network and posting the highest quarterly revenue of the group. Recent results have shown record freight revenue, operating income, and net income, supported by volume growth, core pricing gains, and higher fuel surcharges. The company has delivered what management describes as industry-leading operating efficiency, with a reported operating ratio that improved versus the prior year and stands notably better than its eastern peers. UNP has also raised its full-year earnings outlook to high-single-digit growth, citing improving customer demand and productivity. Like NSC, UNP is advancing through the regulatory process for the proposed merger that would combine the two networks into America's first transcontinental railroad. This consolidation is a central driver of the company's current narrative, alongside its disciplined capital plan, consistent dividend increases, and continued share repurchases.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
From a scale and efficiency standpoint, UNP holds a clear edge: it generates roughly twice the quarterly revenue of either peer and posts the best operating ratio, reflecting superior cost control across its western network. CSX sits in the middle, balancing steady volume and pricing momentum with a distinctive, direct labor approach that could reduce service-related volatility over time. NSC offers the strongest revenue-growth trajectory and record top-line results, but its efficiency lags the group and its premium valuation leaves less room for error.
The defining structural difference, however, is the pending NSC–UNP merger, which would combine two of the three companies and fundamentally alter the competitive landscape. That creates merger-related catalysts and regulatory uncertainty for both parties, while CSX is the only name without such event-driven complexity. Sector exposure also differs: UNP is more levered to western grain and energy markets, while CSX and NSC are more exposed to eastern chemicals, coal, and the dense Atlantic port complex. For risk-conscious investors, UNP's operational consistency is compelling, whereas NSC's momentum and CSX's independent turnaround each carry distinct risk-reward trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, operating stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would most likely favor UNP among the three. Its combination of the group's strongest operating ratio, record financial results, an upwardly revised earnings outlook, and sustained cost discipline suggests the most consistent trend profile. The pending merger adds a catalyst while introducing regulatory uncertainty, but UNP's underlying operational momentum appears the most resilient of the trio. NSC would rank as a close momentum-driven alternative, though its premium valuation and thinner margins introduce greater sensitivity to setbacks, while CSX represents a more independent, valuation-conscious option. As always, these assessments are probabilistic and reflect current data rather than a definitive prediction of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
CSX's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CSX turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where CSX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CSX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CSX as a result. In 47 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Following a +1.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CSX advanced for three days, in 174 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
CSX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for CSX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CSX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Aroon Indicator for CSX entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CSX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.150) is normal, around the industry mean (4.638). P/E Ratio (27.195) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.129). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.682) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.150) is also within normal values, averaging (3.592).
NSC in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026
NSC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 25 of 39 cases where NSC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NSC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NSC as a result. In 49 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NSC just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where NSC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +1.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NSC advanced for three days, in 195 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for NSC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NSC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Aroon Indicator for NSC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NSC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.327) is normal, around the industry mean (4.638). P/E Ratio (26.711) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.129). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.695) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.679) is also within normal values, averaging (3.592).
UNP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNP turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UNP's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNP as a result. In 52 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +1.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in 183 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for UNP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
UNP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UNP entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to good earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.874) is normal, around the industry mean (4.638). P/E Ratio (22.194) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.129). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.721) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. UNP's P/S Ratio (6.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
CSX | NSC | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 14 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 46 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 52 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 47 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 16 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NSC's Valuation (86) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (87) and is in the same range as CSX (88). This means that NSC's stock grew similarly to UNP’s and similarly to CSX’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (38) and is in the same range as NSC (46). This means that CSX's stock grew similarly to UNP’s and similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (39) and is in the same range as NSC (52). This means that UNP's stock grew similarly to CSX’s and similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (45) and is in the same range as NSC (47). This means that UNP's stock grew similarly to CSX’s and similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
NSC's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (20) and is in the same range as UNP (32). This means that NSC's stock grew similarly to CSX’s and similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| CSX | NSC | UNP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 46% | 15 days ago 52% | 8 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CSX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NSC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and UNP’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- CSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NSC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CSX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NSC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and UNP’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CSX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NSC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CSX (@Railroads) experienced а +0.55% price change this week, while NSC (@Railroads) price change was +1.53% , and UNP (@Railroads) price fluctuated +2.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was +0.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.51%.
Reported Earning Dates
CSX is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
NSC is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (+0.31% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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CSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CSX has been loosely correlated with WAB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 44% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CSX jumps, then WAB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CSX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | 100% | +0.02% | ||
| WAB - CSX | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.26% | ||
| RAIL - CSX | 21% Poorly correlated | +0.16% | ||
| FSTR - CSX | 21% Poorly correlated | +1.51% | ||
| GBX - CSX | 1% Poorly correlated | +0.36% | ||
| RVSN - CSX | 0% Poorly correlated | -0.32% | ||
More | ||||
NSC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NSC has been closely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NSC jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.