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DUK or EXC or PNW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Duke Energy (DUK) vs. Exelon (EXC) vs. Pinnacle West (PNW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three are regulated electric utilities, but their market positioning diverges sharply: DUK leads on scale and data-center demand, EXC trades at a discount after pipeline resets, and PNW shows the strongest recent relative momentum.
- Duke Energy is the largest of the trio and has secured roughly 7.6 gigawatts (GW) of data-center electric service agreements, with a larger pipeline still in negotiation.
- Exelon recently trimmed its large-load project pipeline from 43 GW to 36 GW, which has weighed on short-term sentiment despite a $41.7 billion capital plan.
- Pinnacle West is benefiting from Arizona's population and industrial growth, delivering standout year-to-date share-price performance even as higher interest costs squeeze earnings.
- Valuation sensitivity, regulatory exposure, and growth drivers vary meaningfully, making the "best" choice dependent on an investor's risk profile and timeframe.
Introduction
Electric utilities occupy a unique position in the market: they blend bond-like income characteristics with genuine growth catalysts tied to electrification, data centers, and grid modernization. Comparing DUK, EXC, and PNW offers a useful window into how scale, geography, and regulatory momentum shape relative performance within the same sector. This stock comparison is most relevant for income-oriented investors seeking dividend stability, as well as traders monitoring momentum and catalysts. While the three share a regulated-utility foundation, their recent price behavior and forward drivers have diverged enough to reward a closer, side-by-side look.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
Duke Energy is one of the largest electric and gas utilities in the United States, serving millions of customers across the Carolinas, Florida, the Midwest, and other regions. Its business is centered on regulated electric utilities, complemented by a natural-gas distribution segment. In recent weeks, DUK has reported solid results supported by rate-based infrastructure recovery and favorable weather, with quarterly adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit allocated to each share) beating consensus estimates. A defining theme for the company is data-center demand: management has disclosed roughly 7.6 GW of signed electric service agreements, with the majority already under construction and additional projects in negotiation. This load-growth narrative, combined with a large multi-year capital plan and progress on nuclear license renewals, has underpinned constructive sentiment, though the stock's year-to-date advance remains relatively measured against broader market strength.
EXC Overview and Recent Performance
Exelon is a pure-play, transmission-and-distribution utility holding company operating through subsidiaries including ComEd, PECO, BGE, and Pepco Holdings across Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Washington, D.C. Its regulated distribution model, often supported by revenue decoupling that reduces weather sensitivity, provides steady, predictable earnings. In recent market activity, EXC has lagged peers, with its share price near the lower end of its 52-week range. A key sentiment driver has been the company's decision to reduce its large-load and data-center pipeline from 43 GW to 36 GW following a review of customer funding commitments. Offsetting this, EXC has reaffirmed guidance and outlined a roughly $41.7 billion capital plan supporting approximately 7.9% annual rate-base growth, factors that keep the longer-term growth story intact even as near-term momentum cools.
PNW Overview and Recent Performance
Pinnacle West Capital operates principally through Arizona Public Service (APS), its regulated electric utility serving about 1.5 million customers in one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. Arizona's demographic and industrial expansion, including semiconductor and data-center activity, has translated into strong customer growth and weather-normalized sales gains. In recent weeks, PNW has delivered notably strong relative performance and a return to profitability in its latest quarterly results, supported by higher transmission revenue, favorable weather, and lower operating costs. However, rising interest expense and higher depreciation from a heavy investment cycle have pressured earnings growth in the most recent period. The company continues to advance generation and transmission projects and a pending rate case, with management reaffirming its full-year EPS guidance. This mix of robust demand and near-term cost pressure defines PNW's current positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast among these three is scale and growth profile. Duke Energy combines the largest customer base, a diversified electric-and-gas model, and a leading data-center backlog, giving it the most visible load-growth runway but also the largest capital commitments. Exelon offers a clean, transmission-and-distribution-focused earnings stream with meaningful urban grid investment, yet its trimmed pipeline and softer price momentum highlight execution and affordability risks in its regulatory jurisdictions. Pinnacle West presents the strongest recent relative performance and the most concentrated growth tailwind in Arizona, but it also carries elevated interest-rate and depreciation sensitivity during a heavy buildout phase, plus regulatory lag until new rates take effect. In terms of valuation, DUK trades at a higher absolute multiple typical of larger, faster-growing utilities, while EXC screens as relatively discounted after its pullback. Dividend yields are broadly comparable, positioning all three as income candidates, but their risk profiles differ by geography and balance-sheet leverage.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would most likely favor Pinnacle West in the current environment, given its strongest recent momentum and a durable, region-specific demand narrative. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive. Duke Energy offers the most balanced risk-reward profile for longer-horizon positioning, supported by a deep data-center backlog and steady earnings growth, while Exelon's discounted valuation could become compelling if regulatory outcomes and pipeline execution improve. Ultimately, the optimal choice depends on whether an investor prioritizes momentum, stability, or value.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Momentum Indicator for DUK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
DUK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 98 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 50 of the 98 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 51%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DUK just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where DUK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DUK advanced for three days, in 168 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DUK moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 11 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 34%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
DUK moved below its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DUK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
DUK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DUK entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 27 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.644) is normal, around the industry mean (2.169). P/E Ratio (17.080) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.749). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.112) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.756) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DUK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
EXC's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EXC turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where EXC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where EXC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EXC as a result. In 46 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +1.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EXC advanced for three days, in 176 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
EXC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for EXC moved below the 200-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EXC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Aroon Indicator for EXC entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 16 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.399) is normal, around the industry mean (2.169). P/E Ratio (14.824) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.749). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.167) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.709) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EXC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PNW in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PNW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PNW as a result. In 53 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PNW just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where PNW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
PNW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PNW advanced for three days, in 181 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PNW moved below the 200-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PNW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
PNW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PNW entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PNW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.573) is normal, around the industry mean (2.169). P/E Ratio (17.528) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.749). PNW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.508) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.040) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.106) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
DUK | EXC | PNW | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 33 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 16 Undervalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 45 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 70 | 72 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 57 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 53 | 40 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EXC's Valuation (16) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (27) and is somewhat better than the same rating for PNW (72). This means that EXC's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and somewhat faster than PNW’s over the last 12 months.
PNW's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (29) and is in the same range as EXC (45). This means that PNW's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and similarly to EXC’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's SMR Rating (70) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as EXC (72) and is in the same range as PNW (73). This means that DUK's stock grew similarly to EXC’s and similarly to PNW’s over the last 12 months.
PNW's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (55) and is in the same range as EXC (57). This means that PNW's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and similarly to EXC’s over the last 12 months.
PNW's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as EXC (53) and is in the same range as DUK (58). This means that PNW's stock grew similarly to EXC’s and similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
| DUK | EXC | PNW | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 34% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 38% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 41% | 22 days ago 48% | 22 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 30% | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 32% | 1 day ago 32% | 1 day ago 35% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DUK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while EXC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PNW’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- DUK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- EXC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PNW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DUK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EXC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and PNW’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DUK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- EXC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PNW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
DUK (@Electric Utilities) experienced а +1.75% price change this week, while EXC (@Electric Utilities) price change was +1.80% , and PNW (@Electric Utilities) price fluctuated +4.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was +0.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
DUK is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
EXC is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
PNW is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (+0.18% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
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EXC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EXC has been closely correlated with FE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EXC jumps, then FE could also see price increases.
PNW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PNW has been closely correlated with LNT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PNW jumps, then LNT could also see price increases.