TotalEnergies (TTE) Drops -14.2% as Oil Prices Fall Sharply After Geopolitical Shifts
Key Takeaways
- TotalEnergies shares fell approximately 14.2% over the last 30 days, driven primarily by a sharp decline in crude oil prices following the US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent crude dropped from elevated levels above $110 per barrel in May to the low $70s by early July, removing a substantial geopolitical risk premium that had supported energy stocks.
- Multiple Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citi, slashed their oil price forecasts, citing expectations of a global supply glut.
- The broader energy sector sold off in tandem, with peers like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, and Shell all posting double-digit declines from their year-to-date highs.
- Despite the selloff, TotalEnergies continued executing its capital return strategy, repurchasing approximately €135 million in shares each week throughout June and completing a €310.5 million employee share offering.
TotalEnergies (TTE) Company Overview and Market Position
TotalEnergies SE is a French multinational integrated energy company operating across the full energy value chain. The company explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines petroleum products, manufactures chemicals, and distributes fuels through a global network. In recent years, TotalEnergies has expanded into renewable energy, electricity generation, and low-carbon solutions, including biogas, hydrogen, and solar power. With operations in approximately 120 countries and a workforce exceeding 100,000 employees, TotalEnergies ranks among the world's largest publicly traded energy companies. Its deep exposure to Middle Eastern oil and gas assets, particularly in the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Qatar, makes the stock highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Persian Gulf region.
TotalEnergies (TTE) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, TotalEnergies shares declined from $89.40 on June 2, 2026, to $76.69 on July 2, 2026, representing a drop of approximately 14.2%. The selloff accelerated in mid-June when the US-Iran peace framework was announced, triggering a single-day decline of over 4% on June 15. The stock continued to slide through the end of the month, breaking below key technical support levels and reaching an intraday low of $74.78 on July 1 before staging a modest rebound.
Over the broader quarter, the performance was similarly negative. TotalEnergies entered the second quarter trading near the higher end of its 52-week range, with shares hovering in the high $80s to low $90s. By the end of June, the stock had shed roughly 15-16% of its value for the quarter, erasing gains accumulated earlier in the year when elevated oil prices driven by Middle East tensions had boosted the entire energy sector. The quarterly decline reflects a complete reversal of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported valuations.
What Drove TTE Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst behind the 30-day decline was the dramatic shift in the geopolitical landscape. In mid-June, the United States and Iran reached a framework agreement extending a ceasefire and planning the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies transit. The strait had been effectively blocked for more than three months during the Iran conflict, choking off tanker traffic and sending crude prices soaring. The prospect of normalized shipping immediately deflated oil prices, with Brent crude falling approximately 5% in a single session on June 15 and continuing to slide toward the low $70s in subsequent weeks.
Compounding the pressure, a series of major investment banks issued bearish oil forecasts. Morgan Stanley warned of a global glut and cut its third-quarter Brent estimate by $15 to $75 per barrel. Goldman Sachs, Citi, and JP Morgan followed with similar downward revisions. The energy sector experienced a broad-based correction, with the Vanguard Energy ETF falling more than 15% from its year-to-date high. TotalEnergies, as one of the most Middle East-exposed integrated majors, bore the brunt of the selloff. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Additional developments during the period included a Paris court ruling on June 25 ordering TotalEnergies to include Scope 3 customer emissions in its vigilance plan, though the court declined to impose production cuts sought by climate groups. On the operational front, the company announced its entry into the Bab Gas Cap Concession in Abu Dhabi with a 10% stake, and CEO Patrick Pouyanné called for prioritizing pipeline investments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The company also completed a €310.5 million employee share offering at €62.00 per share, with over 59,000 employees participating.
What Drove TTE Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly performance was shaped by a stark reversal in the crude oil narrative. During the first half of the quarter, TotalEnergies benefited from elevated energy prices driven by the Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The company reported strong first-quarter results, with net earnings jumping nearly 30% and oil trading profits doubling to approximately $1 billion. CEO Pouyanné indicated that second-quarter profits would likely be even higher, reflecting the persistence of elevated prices through much of the period.
However, the same geopolitical tensions that boosted earnings also created a fragile foundation for valuations. When the peace framework emerged in mid-June, the risk premium that had inflated energy stocks evaporated rapidly. The quarterly decline was further amplified by growing concerns about demand destruction, weakening refining margins, and the potential for increased OPEC+ supply. By quarter-end, TotalEnergies shares had given back most of their year-to-date gains, trading at approximately 7 times forward earnings—a multiple that reflects the market's reassessment of the oil price outlook.
TTE Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, the trajectory of crude oil prices remains the single most important factor for TotalEnergies shares. Investors should monitor the pace of Hormuz shipping normalization, OPEC+ production decisions, and global demand indicators, particularly from China. The company's second-quarter earnings report, expected in late July, will provide critical insight into how the oil price decline affected profitability and whether the strong trading performance from Q1 carried through. Analysts will also focus on any adjustments to the share buyback program, which ran at approximately €135 million per week in June. Additionally, the Paris court's January 2027 follow-up hearing on climate disclosure requirements and any strategic announcements regarding pipeline investments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz could influence long-term sentiment. With analyst consensus still at Moderate Buy and an average price target around $84, the stock's recovery potential hinges on stabilization in energy markets.
Using AI Tools for Energy Sector Analysis
In volatile market environments like the one currently affecting energy stocks, I often turn to data-driven resources to help process rapid price swings and compare signals across multiple tickers. One resource I find useful is Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page, which highlights a selection of top-performing AI trading bots from a broad universe. These bots cover various strategies and timeframes, and reviewing the page offers a way to supplement traditional fundamental analysis with additional quantitative perspectives. I’ve found it helpful for gaining context on how different automated approaches are performing amid sector-wide moves like the recent energy selloff.
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Momentum Indicator for TTE turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TTE saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on July 10, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 90 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TTE just turned positive on July 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where TTE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TTE moved above its 50-day moving average on July 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TTE advanced for three days, in of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TTE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TTE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TTE entered a downward trend on July 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.501) is normal, around the industry mean (2.450). P/E Ratio (10.864) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.212). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.719) is also within normal values, averaging (1.290). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.968) is also within normal values, averaging (2.395).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TTE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a developer of oil and gas products
Industry IntegratedOil
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