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HMY vs NEM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) vs. Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both HMY and NEM are major gold mining companies that have benefited from elevated gold prices in recent market activity, though NEM has delivered stronger year-to-date returns.
- HMY has shown notable recent momentum with upward price movement tied to earnings guidance projecting record results amid higher production expectations.
- NEM reported record quarterly free cash flow in its most recent earnings release while maintaining full-year production guidance despite some revenue shortfalls.
- HMY operates primarily in South Africa with a focus on gold and copper, presenting higher operational concentration risk compared to NEM's global diversified portfolio.
- Market sentiment for both stocks remains supported by gold price trends, with NEM exhibiting greater scale and share repurchase activity as stabilizing factors.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between HMY's recent volatility-driven gains and NEM's more consistent long-term positioning in the sector.
Introduction
Gold mining stocks HMY and NEM represent distinct segments of the precious metals sector, offering investors exposure to gold price movements alongside company-specific operational and geographic factors. This comparison examines their recent performance, business models, and market positioning in the current environment of elevated gold prices. Professional traders and long-term investors focused on commodity-linked equities may find this analysis relevant for evaluating relative value, risk profiles, and momentum within the gold mining industry.
HMY Overview and Recent Performance
HMY, or Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, is a South African-based producer primarily engaged in gold mining with additional copper output. In recent weeks, the stock has experienced significant upward price movement, closing at $23.54 on August 21, 2026, following projections of record full-year earnings growth driven by higher gold prices and increased production. Year-to-date returns stand at approximately 19.67%, with one-year gains near 50%. Upcoming earnings on August 27, 2026, are anticipated to provide further clarity on operational results. Sentiment has been influenced by broader gold market strength and company-specific guidance, though the stock has shown volatility consistent with smaller-scale miners.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
NEM, or Newmont Corporation, is the world's largest gold producer with operations spanning multiple continents. Recent market activity has seen the stock reach $131.58 on August 21, 2026, following second-quarter 2026 results that included record free cash flow of $2.2 billion despite modest revenue shortfalls. Year-to-date returns approximate 32.35%, with one-year performance around 89.73%. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance of 5.3 million attributable gold ounces and continued share repurchase programs. Performance has been supported by strong operational execution and gold price tailwinds, with sentiment reflecting the stability of its large-scale global portfolio.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HMY and NEM share exposure to gold prices but differ markedly in scale and diversification. NEM operates a global portfolio that reduces geographic concentration risk compared to HMY’s primary South African focus. Growth drivers for HMY center on production increases and copper co-products, while NEM emphasizes cost discipline, share repurchases, and consistent dividend returns. Recent momentum favors HMY in percentage terms amid earnings optimism, whereas NEM demonstrates greater stability through record cash flow generation. Risk factors include HMY’s higher leverage to regional operational challenges versus NEM’s exposure to broader cost inflation. Market sentiment for both remains positive on gold fundamentals, though NEM’s larger market capitalization provides relative liquidity advantages.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, operational stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to NEM due to its demonstrated free cash flow generation, global diversification, and ongoing capital return programs. HMY shows stronger near-term momentum potential tied to earnings catalysts but carries elevated concentration risks. This assessment reflects data-driven patterns rather than forward projections.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HMY is a Hold and NEM is a Buy.
| HMY | NEM | HMY / NEM | |
| Capitalization | 12.8B | 133B | 10% |
| EBITDA | 31.8B | 16B | 199% |
| Gain YTD | 7.835 | 27.820 | 28% |
| P/E Ratio | 7.15 | 15.99 | 45% |
| Revenue | 81.2B | 25.8B | 315% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 9.01B | - |
| Total Debt | N/A | 5.6B | - |
HMY | NEM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 10 Undervalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HMY's Valuation (10) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NEM (75). This means that HMY’s stock grew somewhat faster than NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (35). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's SMR Rating (20) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (38). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (38). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (30) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HMY (87). This means that NEM’s stock grew somewhat faster than HMY’s over the last 12 months.
| HMY | NEM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 81% | 9 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 82% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HMY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NEM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- HMY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NEM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HMY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NEM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HMY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NEM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HMY (@Precious Metals) experienced а +1.83% price change this week, while NEM (@Precious Metals) price change was -1.00% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -3.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.84%.
Reported Earning Dates
HMY is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
NEM is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-3.23% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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HMY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HMY has been closely correlated with GFI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HMY jumps, then GFI could also see price increases.
NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with KGC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then KGC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NEM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 100% | +0.53% | ||
| KGC - NEM | 88% Closely correlated | +0.69% | ||
| AEM - NEM | 87% Closely correlated | +1.87% | ||
| WPM - NEM | 87% Closely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| CGAU - NEM | 86% Closely correlated | +0.13% | ||
| PAAS - NEM | 85% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
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