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LMT vs NOC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lockheed Martin (LMT) vs. Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LMT and NOC are both large-cap defense primes, but they differ sharply in scale, growth mix, and risk profile.
- Lockheed Martin ended 2025 with a record backlog of roughly $193.6 billion, driven by F-35 deliveries and a seven-year PAC-3 missile framework agreement.
- Northrop Grumman posted strong fourth-quarter growth and a record backlog near $95.7 billion, yet its 2026 EPS guidance came in below consensus estimates.
- Northrop's stock has rallied far more aggressively over the past year, while Lockheed's relative performance has been steadier and more valuation-sensitive.
- Execution risk differs: Northrop carries Sentinel ICBM cost-overrun exposure, while Lockheed faces concentration risk around the F-35 program.
- Both names are sensitive to U.S. defense budget policy and recent political pressure on defense-sector dividends and buybacks.
Introduction
Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman sit at the core of the U.S. defense industrial base, making this stock comparison a recurring reference point for investors evaluating aerospace and defense exposure. Lockheed is the larger, more diversified prime by revenue, while Northrop is heavily concentrated in advanced aircraft, missile defense, and space systems. The two companies often compete for similar Pentagon and allied contracts yet carry different growth drivers and risk profiles. For traders and longer-term investors weighing relative performance, market positioning, and momentum, contrasting these two tickers offers a practical lens on how the defense sector is being priced in the current environment.
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor by sales, with leading positions in combat aircraft (notably the F-35), missiles and fire control (including PAC-3 interceptors and HIMARS), rotary and mission systems, and space. In recent market activity, LMT has shown a comparatively measured trajectory, trailing the broader S&P 500 over the trailing three-month window while roughly keeping pace with its aerospace and defense peer group. Sentiment has been supported by strong quarterly execution: fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 9.1% year over year, the company delivered a record 191 F-35s for the full year, and its total backlog reached a record of about $193.6 billion. A landmark seven-year framework agreement for PAC-3 missiles underpins management's outlook for double-digit growth in the missiles segment through the end of the decade. Investors are also weighing the company's guidance for roughly 5% sales growth and about 25% segment operating profit growth in 2026, alongside elevated capital spending tied to expanding munitions production capacity.
NOC Overview and Recent Performance
Northrop Grumman is a leading aerospace and defense company whose portfolio is anchored by the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) modernization program, missile defense systems, and a broad space and microelectronics business. In recent market activity, NOC has been a standout performer, with its stock climbing roughly 63% over the past year as investor optimism around the B-21 ramp and a record backlog drove multiple expansion. Fourth-quarter 2025 results showed revenue growth of 9.6% year over year, a record backlog of about $95.7 billion, and free cash flow growth of 26% for the full year. However, sentiment has been tempered by forward guidance: the company's 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share midpoint of about $27.65 fell below consensus, and the Sentinel program's earlier Nunn-McCurdy cost breach (a statutory threshold flagging significant program cost growth) remains a recurring source of execution uncertainty.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two primes is scale versus concentration. Lockheed generates roughly $75 billion in annual revenue against Northrop's approximately $41 billion, giving LMT a broader program base and more diversified earnings stream. NOC, by comparison, is more leveraged to a smaller set of high-profile programs such as the B-21 and Sentinel, which can magnify both upside and downside.
On growth, both companies are benefiting from elevated demand for missiles, interceptors, and air defense, yet their momentum profiles differ. Lockheed's relative performance has been steadier and more closely tied to operational delivery, while Northrop's stock has re-rated sharply higher on backlog growth and the B-21 production pivot. This divergence means Northrop currently carries a richer valuation relative to its earnings trajectory, whereas Lockheed's forward multiple reflects more conservative expectations.
Risk factors also diverge. Northrop faces fixed-price execution risk on Sentinel and the Sentinel ICBM's cost overruns, whereas Lockheed's principal concentration risk is its reliance on the F-35 program, though its record backlog and missile frameworks provide visibility. Both companies are exposed to sector-wide variables, including U.S. defense budget negotiations, international order timing, and political scrutiny of defense-industry dividends and share repurchases.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward LMT in the current environment. Lockheed's combination of a record backlog, a seven-year missile framework agreement that provides multi-year revenue visibility, and steadier price action tends to register as a more consistent, lower-volatility trend signal. Northrop's stronger trailing momentum and backlog growth are notable positives, but its softer 2026 guidance and Sentinel execution overhang introduce comparatively higher uncertainty. In probabilistic terms, the AI framework would view Lockheed as offering a more balanced risk-reward profile at present, while Northrop's richer valuation and program-specific risks warrant closer monitoring before a higher-conviction signal emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) are two of the largest companies in the aerospace & Defense industry. Their primary source of revenue is government contracts to develop, manufacture, and deploy military assets such as aircraft, missiles, weapons, and information technology systems including cybersecurity and intelligence systems. LMT has been the world’s largest defense contractor by revenue, getting most of its contracts from the Pentagon as well as a substantial amount of foreign contracts from US allies. NOC’s business is very similar to LMT, but it is about 40% smaller. The companies have similar profit margins. Investors have not been overly impressed with LMT’s performance the past two years, but Lockheed is trying to convince investors that a large classified project, which has taken up company resources so far this year, will definitely turn out well for them in the future.
LMT's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for LMT moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 37 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 59%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LMT as a result. In 43 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LMT just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where LMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Following a +5.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LMT advanced for three days, in 194 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for LMT moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
LMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LMT entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.643) is normal, around the industry mean (6.305). P/E Ratio (19.104) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.978) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.616) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NOC's Stochastic Oscillator entering overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for NOC moved into overbought territory on October 15, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator for NOC entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NOC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NOC as a result. In 43 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NOC just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where NOC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +3.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOC advanced for three days, in 196 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
NOC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.018) is normal, around the industry mean (6.305). P/E Ratio (16.078) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.350) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.766) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NOC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
LMT | NOC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 62 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 72 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LMT's Valuation (60) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (60). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (62). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (36). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (62). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's P/E Growth Rating (72) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as LMT (77). This means that NOC’s stock grew similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
| LMT | NOC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 53% | 11 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LMT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NOC’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- LMT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NOC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LMT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NOC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LMT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NOC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +4.87% price change this week, while NOC (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +3.13% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -5.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
LMT is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
NOC is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-5.75% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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