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LMT vs NOC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lockheed Martin (LMT) vs. Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LMT has held up better than its peer, remaining positive year to date despite pulling back from its early-2026 high.
- NOC has fallen more sharply from its peak, reflecting heavier exposure to large strategic programs and sharper sentiment swings.
- Both companies reported record backlogs, but LMT carries a larger, missile-heavy order book while NOC leans on space, bombers, and strategic systems.
- Recent sector weakness stems from midterm-election uncertainty and concerns over a proposed $500 billion defense-budget expansion.
- NOC posted a "beat and raise" quarter and an analyst upgrade, while LMT has drawn steadier demand for munitions and interceptors.
Introduction
Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are two of the largest U.S. defense contractors, and their stocks are frequently compared by investors seeking exposure to national-security spending. This stock comparison examines their business models, relative performance, and market positioning in a period when the aerospace and defense sector has diverged sharply from the broader market. Defense names have come under pressure amid political uncertainty, even as global demand for weapons and munitions remains elevated. For traders and investors evaluating which contractor offers the stronger risk-reward profile, understanding the contrasting drivers behind LMT and NOC is essential.
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor, best known for the F-35 fighter jet, the Patriot and THAAD missile-interceptor systems, and the HIMARS and GMLRS precision-munitions families. In recent market activity, LMT has pulled back more than 20% from its March high yet remains up roughly 15% year to date, a relative standout in a struggling sector.
Sentiment has been shaped by a record backlog of approximately $230 billion, anchored by a $35 billion THAAD interceptor contract. The company's Missiles and Fire Control segment has drawn the steadiest demand, as U.S. and allied forces replenish munitions and air-defense stockpiles. Recent earnings showed strong free cash flow and an upward revision to full-year revenue guidance. Investors continue to watch how political developments may affect future procurement, but LMT's missile-heavy mix has provided relative resilience.
NOC Overview and Recent Performance
Northrop Grumman focuses on strategic capabilities, including the B-21 Raider bomber, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, space systems, and autonomous technologies. In contrast to its peer, NOC has declined roughly 35% from its March peak and remains down about 7–8% year to date, a deeper drawdown driven in part by its reliance on large, long-cycle programs that markets view as more sensitive to budget-policy shifts.
Recent weeks have brought a notable shift in tone, however. NOC reported third-quarter revenue up 7% year over year and earnings per share (EPS) above consensus, raised its full-year guidance, and disclosed a record backlog near $110 billion with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 times. An analyst upgrade citing multi-year revenue visibility further improved sentiment, helping the stock recover from recent lows.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly in their business mix and momentum profile. Lockheed Martin is weighted toward missiles, munitions, and interceptors, categories with steady replenishment demand tied to ongoing conflicts and allied stockpiling. Northrop Grumman is more concentrated in space systems, stealth aircraft, and the strategic nuclear triad, areas with longer development cycles and greater sensitivity to large, politically scrutinized programs.
On recent momentum, NOC has shown a sharper rebound following strong earnings and an analyst upgrade, while LMT has displayed more consistent, lower-volatility relative performance. Both trade at comparable forward earnings multiples, generally in the mid-to-high teens. The key trade-off is between LMT's steadier, volume-driven demand and NOC's higher beta to strategic programs and policy headlines. Risk factors for both include political uncertainty over defense budgets and fixed-price contract margin pressure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward LMT in the current environment. The stock has demonstrated more stable relative performance, a larger and more demand-resilient missile-heavy backlog, and stronger year-to-date standing than its peer. While NOC offers a compelling recent catalyst and improving sentiment, its deeper drawdown and exposure to long-cycle strategic programs introduce greater variability. These signals are probabilistic rather than definitive and reflect current conditions rather than long-term recommendations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) are two of the largest companies in the aerospace & Defense industry. Their primary source of revenue is government contracts to develop, manufacture, and deploy military assets such as aircraft, missiles, weapons, and information technology systems including cybersecurity and intelligence systems. LMT has been the world’s largest defense contractor by revenue, getting most of its contracts from the Pentagon as well as a substantial amount of foreign contracts from US allies. NOC’s business is very similar to LMT, but it is about 40% smaller. The companies have similar profit margins. Investors have not been overly impressed with LMT’s performance the past two years, but Lockheed is trying to convince investors that a large classified project, which has taken up company resources so far this year, will definitely turn out well for them in the future.
LMT in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LMT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LMT as a result. In 39 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LMT just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where LMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
LMT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LMT advanced for three days, in 193 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LMT moved out of overbought territory on November 04, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 15 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 36%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 28 of 62 cases where LMT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
LMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LMT entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LMT's P/B Ratio (15.663) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.045). P/E Ratio (21.852) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.993). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.978) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.616) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
NOC's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NOC moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 24 of the 37 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 66 cases where NOC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NOC as a result. In 40 of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
NOC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NOC just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where NOC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
NOC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NOC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +2.02% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOC advanced for three days, in 196 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 149 of 241 cases where NOC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NOC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.371) is normal, around the industry mean (5.045). P/E Ratio (17.459) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.993). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.350) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.766) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
LMT | NOC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 69 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NOC's Valuation (75) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as LMT (76). This means that NOC’s stock grew similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NOC (61). This means that LMT’s stock grew somewhat faster than NOC’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (36). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Price Growth Rating (6) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NOC (45). This means that LMT’s stock grew somewhat faster than NOC’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's P/E Growth Rating (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (69). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
| LMT | NOC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 57% | 8 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LMT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while NOC’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- LMT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NOC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LMT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NOC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NOC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -5.51% price change this week, while NOC (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -4.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
LMT is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
NOC is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.99% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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NOC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NOC has been closely correlated with LMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NOC jumps, then LMT could also see price increases.