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MTH vs SKY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTH and SKY operate in the residential construction sector, with MTH focused on traditional site-built homes and SKY on manufactured and modular homes.
- In recent market activity, SKY has shown stronger year-to-date total return compared to MTH, which has lagged the broader market.
- MTH reported weaker first-quarter 2026 results with declines in revenue and net earnings year-over-year.
- SKY is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on May 26, 2026, following a period of share price volatility.
- Analyst price targets suggest greater potential upside for SKY relative to its current trading range than for MTH.
- Both stocks face sector headwinds from interest rates and housing affordability, though their business models present distinct exposure to demand cycles.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) represent two distinct approaches within the U.S. residential construction industry. This comparison examines their recent performance, business models, and market positioning to assist investors evaluating housing-related equities. The analysis is relevant for traders monitoring sector rotation, value-oriented investors seeking cyclical exposure, and those comparing traditional versus manufactured homebuilders amid evolving interest rate and affordability dynamics.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) develops and sells single-family homes across multiple U.S. markets. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near the lower end of its 52-week range following first-quarter 2026 results that showed year-over-year declines in home closings, revenue, and net earnings. Market sentiment reflected caution around reduced order activity and margin pressure amid higher mortgage rates. Broader market activity has seen MTH underperform the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis, with limited positive catalysts in the immediate period.
SKY Overview and Recent Performance
Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) designs, produces, and sells manufactured and modular homes. In recent market activity, the stock has experienced volatility, including periods of weakness over the past month, though it maintains a stronger year-to-date total return relative to the broader market in some measures. The company is preparing to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results later in May, an event that could influence near-term sentiment. Sector exposure to affordable housing options has provided some differentiation, though shares remain sensitive to the same interest rate and demand factors affecting traditional builders.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MTH and SKY differ primarily in product focus: MTH emphasizes site-built homes in established communities, while SKY leverages factory production for manufactured homes, offering potential cost advantages in certain segments. Growth drivers for MTH center on community count expansion and traditional buyer demand, whereas SKY benefits from affordability positioning. Recent momentum has favored SKY on a year-to-date return basis, though both stocks carry exposure to housing market cyclicality. Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity and inventory dynamics for MTH, with SKY additionally navigating supply chain and regulatory considerations typical of modular construction. Market sentiment remains cautious across the sector, with relative valuation metrics showing SKY trading at a higher multiple but with analyst targets reflecting greater perceived upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as relative year-to-date performance, earnings trajectory, and upcoming catalysts, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic weighting to SKY for potential near-term stability and momentum consistency compared with MTH. This assessment rests on recent return differentials and positioning ahead of earnings rather than definitive forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Buy and SKY is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSKY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SKY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SKY’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SKY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.67% price change this week, while SKY (@Homebuilding) price change was +4.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
SKY is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.34% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | SKY | MTH / SKY | |
| Capitalization | 5.04B | 4.6B | 110% |
| EBITDA | 522M | 326M | 160% |
| Gain YTD | 15.726 | -3.018 | -521% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.70 | 22.39 | 61% |
| Revenue | 5.62B | 2.66B | 211% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 638M | - |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 118M | 1,612% |
MTH | SKY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 58 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (7) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SKY (58). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than SKY’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (65). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's SMR Rating (63) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (79). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (42). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (32). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | SKY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 70% | 16 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 71% | 9 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 69% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| HELS | 24.51 | 0.25 | +1.02% |
| Hedgeye 130/30 Equity ETF | |||
| EJUL | 31.20 | 0.04 | +0.14% |
| Innovator Emerging Power Bffr ETF July | |||
| JDOC | 56.24 | N/A | N/A |
| JPMorgan Healthcare Leaders ETF | |||
| STIP | 101.84 | -0.22 | -0.22% |
| iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | |||
| HEGD | 26.62 | -0.10 | -0.37% |
| Swan Hedged Equity US Large Cap ETF | |||
MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with KBH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then KBH could also see price increases.
SKY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SKY has been closely correlated with CVCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SKY jumps, then CVCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SKY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKY | 100% | -1.67% | ||
| CVCO - SKY | 80% Closely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| MTH - SKY | 68% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| TOL - SKY | 68% Closely correlated | -2.41% | ||
| MHO - SKY | 67% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| GRBK - SKY | 66% Closely correlated | -1.35% | ||
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