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MTH vs SKY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes (MTH) vs. Champion Homes (SKY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Meritage Homes (MTH) is a traditional Sun Belt homebuilder whose recent quarterly results missed estimates, with revenue down roughly 17.9% year over year and management withdrawing guidance.
- Champion Homes (SKY) is a factory-built housing leader that has recently outperformed its industry on order momentum, holds a sizable net cash position, and is gaining from affordability and policy tailwinds.
- The core contrast is business model: MTH builds site-built entry-level and move-up homes sensitive to mortgage rates, while SKY produces lower-cost manufactured and modular homes positioned for affordability-driven demand.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, catalysts, and balance-sheet flexibility, Tickeron's AI currently favors SKY over MTH.
- For deeper coverage, explore MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move, as well as SKY Major News and SKY Today's Price Move.
- To see the strategies driving these kinds of comparisons, explore the curated Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) both operate in U.S. housing, yet they pursue fundamentally different paths to the same customer. MTH is a conventional site-built homebuilder concentrated in the Sun Belt and Southeast, while SKY is a factory-built housing manufacturer spanning manufactured homes, modular homes, and accessory dwelling units (ADUs, or smaller secondary residential units). This stock comparison is most relevant to investors assessing how affordability pressures, mortgage-rate sensitivity, and housing policy are reshaping relative performance across two distinct corners of the housing market.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) ranks among the largest public U.S. homebuilders, specializing in energy-efficient entry-level and first move-up homes across roughly a dozen Sun Belt and Southeastern states. Its recent market activity has reflected a tougher demand backdrop: in its latest quarter, revenue fell about 17.9% year over year to $1.17 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit divided by shares outstanding) came in modestly below consensus. Operating margin narrowed to 7.1% from 8.4% a year earlier, and backlog declined roughly 4.9% year over year.
Management has attributed the softness to elevated mortgage rates, softer consumer confidence, and the need for higher buyer incentives, which compress margins. The company withdrew its guidance, citing unpredictable conditions, while emphasizing balance-sheet discipline through reduced land investment and continued share repurchases. In recent weeks the stock has pulled back, though several analysts still maintain a Buy rating even as some price targets have been trimmed.
SKY Overview and Recent Performance
Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY), formerly Skyline Champion Corporation, produces factory-built housing in the United States and Canada, including manufactured and modular homes, park models, and commercial structures. In recent market activity, the company has outperformed the broader manufactured-housing industry, citing sales growth, higher manufacturing utilization, and an expanding order backlog. The stock also gained following recent passage of housing legislation that modernizes manufactured-housing rules, a potential catalyst for its affordability-focused model.
SKY has reinforced its position through acquisitions—most recently Timberline Homes—expanding its company-owned retail footprint across the Southeast, alongside earlier deals such as Iseman Homes and Homes Direct. The company carries a substantial net cash position of roughly $670 million, providing strategic flexibility. However, it trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E, or price divided by per-share earnings) multiple than many housing peers, and profitability has faced cost pressures and some margin compression.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor thousands of tickers, each applying a distinct style, strategy, timeframe, and risk profile. Because no single approach suits every market regime, Tickeron curates only the most relevant performers into its Trending AI Robots section, where users can review bots with varying performance statistics, win rates, and trade frequency. This selection is designed to surface the strategies currently best aligned with prevailing market conditions, rather than simply listing every available bot. Exploring Trending AI Robots can offer a practical starting point for investors researching systematic approaches to tickers such as MTH and SKY.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest divide between these two names is their business model and sensitivity to interest rates. MTH builds homes on-site and depends heavily on traditional mortgage financing, leaving it more exposed to elevated borrowing costs and buyer affordability. SKY operates off-site manufacturing, offering generally lower-priced housing that can appeal to cost-conscious buyers and benefit from policy support for affordable and factory-built housing.
On momentum, SKY has shown comparatively firmer order trends and a constructive catalyst path, whereas MTH has contended with declining revenue, narrowing margins, and withdrawn guidance. On balance-sheet positioning, both are relatively strong, but SKY's large net cash position stands out. The main trade-off is valuation: SKY carries a richer earnings multiple, while MTH screens cheaper but faces slower near-term growth visibility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, order momentum, catalyst visibility, and balance-sheet flexibility—Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward SKY in the current environment. Champion Homes' affordability-focused model, improving backlog, net cash position, and policy tailwinds offer a more favorable mix than the affordability and margin headwinds currently pressuring MTH. This view is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the relative positioning of the two stocks at present.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Hold and SKY is a Buy.
MTH saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 46 of the 57 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 49 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 132 of 206 cases where MTH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Momentum Indicator for SKY turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SKY saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 26, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 76 of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SKY just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where SKY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
SKY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SKY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +9.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SKY advanced for three days, in 214 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SKY moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SKY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
SKY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SKY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.155) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (26.493) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.220) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.777) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
MTH | SKY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 64 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (63). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's Profit vs Risk Rating (60) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (70). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's SMR Rating (64) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (46). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (20). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | SKY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 69% | 10 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 6 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SKY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SKY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SKY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SKY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -9.22% price change this week, while SKY (@Homebuilding) price change was -3.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
SKY is expected to report earnings on Feb 08, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.38% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
SKY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SKY has been closely correlated with TOL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SKY jumps, then TOL could also see price increases.
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