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SKY vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Champion Homes (SKY) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Champion Homes (SKY) focuses on factory-built and modular housing, while Toll Brothers (TOL) specializes in luxury single-family homes, creating distinct exposure within the residential construction sector.
- Recent market activity shows TOL reporting strong fiscal Q2 2026 results that exceeded expectations and prompted raised full-year guidance, contributing to positive price momentum.
- SKY has maintained steady operational performance with prior-quarter beats and upcoming earnings visibility, though its stock has exhibited more measured movement compared to peers.
- Sector-wide factors such as mortgage rates and housing demand continue to influence both stocks, with TOL benefiting from luxury buyer resilience and SKY from affordable housing trends.
- Valuation metrics and backlog positions differ notably, highlighting trade-offs in growth potential versus stability for investors evaluating relative positioning.
- Market sentiment has favored TOL in recent weeks following its earnings release, while SKY awaits its next reporting cycle amid broader industry developments.
Introduction
This comparison examines SKY and TOL to help traders and investors assess relative performance and market positioning within the homebuilding industry. Both companies operate in residential construction but target different segments of the housing market, offering insights into how economic conditions, interest rates, and consumer preferences affect their trajectories. The analysis is relevant for those monitoring sector rotation, earnings momentum, and comparative valuation in a dynamic interest-rate environment.
SKY Overview and Recent Performance
Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY), formerly Skyline Champion Corporation, produces factory-built, modular, and manufactured homes across North America. The company serves buyers seeking more affordable housing options through its network of manufacturing facilities and retail operations. In recent weeks, SKY has prepared for its fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 earnings release, following a prior quarter in which revenue and earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Stock behavior has reflected broader housing sector volatility, with performance influenced by seasonal demand patterns and ongoing industry conferences highlighting offsite construction trends. Sentiment remains tied to expectations for modest revenue growth and spring selling season preparations.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) designs, builds, and sells luxury homes across the United States, operating through detached and attached home communities as well as urban developments. The company also manages ancillary services including mortgage, title, and land development. Recent market activity featured a strong fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings report that surpassed revenue and profit forecasts, leading the company to raise its full-year guidance. The stock experienced notable upward movement following the release, supported by solid net signed contracts and backlog levels. Performance has been shaped by resilience in the luxury segment despite elevated mortgage rates, alongside share repurchases and dividend adjustments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Champion Homes (SKY) and Toll Brothers (TOL) differ markedly in business models: SKY emphasizes cost-efficient factory-built housing aimed at broader affordability, whereas TOL targets premium luxury buyers with higher average selling prices. Growth drivers for SKY include modular construction adoption and entry-level demand, while TOL benefits from brand strength and amenities in high-end communities. Recent momentum has tilted toward TOL following its earnings beat and guidance increase, contrasting with SKY’s steadier but less pronounced price reaction ahead of its report. Risk factors for both include interest-rate sensitivity and housing affordability challenges, though TOL’s luxury focus may offer relative insulation. Sector exposure overlaps in residential construction, yet market sentiment has recently emphasized TOL’s execution strength over SKY’s operational consistency.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency after earnings, guidance revisions, and relative positioning within the luxury segment, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic favor to TOL over SKY. This assessment reflects TOL’s demonstrated momentum and backlog support amid recent market activity, though outcomes remain subject to broader economic variables and upcoming data points for both companies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SKY is a StrongBuy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SKY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SKY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SKY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SKY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SKY (@Homebuilding) experienced а +4.25% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
SKY is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.34% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| SKY | TOL | SKY / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 4.6B | 14.1B | 33% |
| EBITDA | 326M | 1.7B | 19% |
| Gain YTD | -3.018 | 12.767 | -24% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.39 | 11.54 | 194% |
| Revenue | 2.66B | 11B | 24% |
| Total Cash | 638M | 1.11B | 58% |
| Total Debt | 118M | 2.92B | 4% |
SKY | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SKY's Valuation (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (68). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (55). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (63). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (42). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (32). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
| SKY | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 73% | 8 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 70% | 16 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 71% |
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| NML | 9.68 | 0.09 | +0.94% |
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| Schwab US Aggregate Bond ETF™ | |||
| CTAP | 27.56 | -0.30 | -1.08% |
| Simplify US Eq PLUS Mgd Futs Stgy ETF | |||
| YANG | 34.60 | -0.39 | -1.11% |
| Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X ETF | |||
SKY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SKY has been closely correlated with CVCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SKY jumps, then CVCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SKY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKY | 100% | -1.67% | ||
| CVCO - SKY | 80% Closely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| MTH - SKY | 68% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| TOL - SKY | 68% Closely correlated | -2.41% | ||
| MHO - SKY | 67% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| GRBK - SKY | 66% Closely correlated | -1.35% | ||
More | ||||
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.