Advertisement
SKY vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Champion Homes (SKY) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Champion Homes (SKY) reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results with modest revenue growth and a significant post-earnings stock rally, supported by share repurchases.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) focuses on luxury homes and is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on August 18, 2026, following prior periods of year-over-year revenue and earnings declines.
- SKY has shown stronger recent price momentum compared to TOL amid broader housing sector dynamics.
- Both companies operate in the residential construction sector but target different market segments: SKY emphasizes factory-built modular homes, while TOL specializes in high-end custom residences.
- Market sentiment for SKY improved following earnings and capital return initiatives, whereas TOL continues to navigate elevated mortgage rates and selective buyer demand in the luxury segment.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between SKY’s recent volatility and upside potential versus TOL’s more stable but slower growth profile in the current environment.
Introduction
Champion Homes (SKY) and Toll Brothers (TOL) represent two distinct approaches within the U.S. residential construction industry. SKY manufactures and sells modular and manufactured homes, while TOL develops luxury single-family residences. This comparison examines their recent stock behavior, business models, and market positioning to assist investors and traders evaluating exposure to the housing sector. Participants focused on relative performance, sector-specific catalysts, and risk profiles may find this analysis relevant when assessing portfolio allocations in homebuilding equities.
SKY Overview and Recent Performance
Champion Homes (SKY) designs, produces, and markets factory-built homes across the United States and Canada. In recent weeks, the company released first-quarter fiscal 2027 results showing net sales of $710.2 million, a 1.3% increase year-over-year, alongside adjusted earnings per share of $0.88. The stock experienced a sharp rally of approximately 12% in the immediate aftermath of the earnings release and announcements regarding share repurchases and an expanded buyback authorization. Recent market activity has reflected improved sentiment tied to these developments and broader interest in cost-efficient housing solutions amid ongoing affordability challenges.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers (TOL) builds and sells luxury homes through its network of communities nationwide. The company is preparing to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on August 18, 2026, following prior quarters that featured year-over-year revenue and earnings declines alongside beats of analyst estimates. In recent market activity, TOL has maintained a more measured price trajectory compared with peers, influenced by luxury buyer sensitivity to mortgage rates and selective demand patterns. New community openings continue to support its growth strategy in the premium segment.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a curated selection of AI trading bots that analyze thousands of tickers using diverse strategies, timeframes, and performance metrics. Hundreds of bots are available overall, yet only the strongest performers suited to prevailing conditions appear in the Trending AI Robots section. Recent highlights indicate selections drawn from roughly 300 total bots, with some demonstrating annualized returns reaching up to 241% and win rates in the 70–80% range across various market themes. Each bot employs unique trading styles and ticker sets, allowing users to review detailed statistics before engagement. Explore the full range of options on the Trending AI Robots page to identify configurations aligned with individual objectives.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Champion Homes (SKY) and Toll Brothers (TOL) differ markedly in business models: SKY emphasizes cost-efficient factory-built housing aimed at broader affordability segments, whereas TOL targets high-end custom builds with higher average selling prices. Growth drivers for SKY include recent earnings momentum and capital return programs, while TOL relies on luxury community expansions amid slower volume trends. Recent momentum favors SKY following its post-earnings surge, contrasting with TOL’s steadier but less volatile path. Risk factors for SKY encompass earnings variability and sector cyclicality, while TOL faces greater exposure to interest-rate sensitivity among affluent buyers. Sector exposure remains similar yet differentiated by price point, with market sentiment currently tilting toward SKY’s demonstrated catalysts over TOL’s pre-earnings positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including post-earnings trend consistency, stability in modular housing demand signals, and relative positioning after recent catalysts, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic preference toward Champion Homes (SKY) over Toll Brothers (TOL). This assessment reflects SKY’s clearer near-term momentum and capital allocation actions, tempered by the inherent variability of housing sector performance and upcoming earnings for TOL.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SKY is a Hold and TOL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SKY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- SKY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SKY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SKY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
SKY (@Homebuilding) experienced а -3.51% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -6.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +0.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
SKY is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+0.30% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| SKY | TOL | SKY / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 4.93B | 13.4B | 37% |
| EBITDA | 326M | 1.7B | 19% |
| Gain YTD | 7.527 | 6.228 | 121% |
| P/E Ratio | 26.57 | 10.86 | 245% |
| Revenue | 2.66B | 11B | 24% |
| Total Cash | 638M | 1.11B | 58% |
| Total Debt | 118M | 2.92B | 4% |
SKY | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 36 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SKY's Valuation (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (63). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (60). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (62). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (52). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (36). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| SKY | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 72% | 15 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | N/A |
Advertisement
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| INVN | 26.01 | 0.35 | +1.37% |
| Alger Russell Innovation ETF | |||
| DEEF | 40.46 | N/A | N/A |
| Xtrackers FTSE Develop ex US Mulfact ETF | |||
| IBHF | 22.50 | -0.01 | -0.04% |
| iShares iBonds 2026 Term HY & Inc ETF | |||
| NAPR | 59.98 | -0.16 | -0.27% |
| Innovator Nasdaq-100 Pwr Bffr ETF Apr | |||
| DFAT | 71.65 | -0.69 | -0.95% |
| Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF | |||
SKY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SKY has been closely correlated with TOL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SKY jumps, then TOL could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.