Advertisement
SKY vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Champion Homes (SKY) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different housing niches: SKY (Champion Homes) focuses on factory-built and manufactured housing, while TOL (Toll Brothers) targets the luxury single-family home market.
- Valuation gap: TOL trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 11, while SKY carries a higher multiple near the mid-20s, reflecting divergent growth and profitability profiles.
- Scale contrast: TOL's market capitalization is roughly $12.5 billion versus about $4.7 billion for SKY, with TOL generating materially larger annual revenue.
- Shareholder returns: TOL pays a dividend and actively repurchases shares; SKY pays no dividend and reinvests in expansion, including a Western U.S. retail acquisition.
- Sentiment drivers: Both stocks are sensitive to mortgage rates and housing affordability, but analysts have recently raised price targets on SKY while TOL navigates margin pressure.
Introduction
Investors comparing SKY and TOL are effectively weighing two distinct approaches to the U.S. housing market. Champion Homes operates in manufactured and factory-built housing, a segment often positioned as an affordable alternative to traditional construction. Toll Brothers, by contrast, builds premium single-family homes for move-up and luxury buyers. This stock comparison is relevant for traders assessing relative performance, market positioning, and how each company responds to shifting interest rates and consumer demand. Because the two businesses serve different price points, their risk profiles and catalysts differ meaningfully, making them a useful pair for understanding housing-sector dynamics across the affordability spectrum.
SKY Overview and Recent Performance
SKY (Champion Homes, Inc., formerly Skyline Champion Corporation) designs and manufactures factory-built and manufactured homes across the United States and western Canada under brands such as Champion Home Builders and Skyline Homes. The company also operates a growing retail segment and has been expanding its distribution footprint. In recent weeks, SKY shares have shown notable volatility within a 52-week range spanning roughly the mid-$60s to near $100, reflecting a beta above the broader market.
Sentiment has been supported by several analyst actions, including price-target increases from firms such as UBS, RBC Capital, and Barclays, as well as an upgrade to outperform from Wedbush. Recent earnings results beat consensus estimates, and management highlighted strong order growth alongside a definitive agreement to acquire retail assets in the Western United States. These catalysts have reinforced the view that Champion Homes is positioning for broader geographic reach, though its premium valuation and sensitivity to affordability trends remain key considerations for the market.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) is a leading U.S. luxury homebuilder that designs, builds, and finances single-family homes, with an average delivered price recently exceeding $1 million. Its fiscal-year revenue is roughly $10.8 billion, supported by a backlog of thousands of homes and a strong balance sheet with conservative leverage. Recent market activity has kept TOL shares within a 52-week range from the low-$120s to the high-$160s.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, Toll Brothers beat earnings and revenue estimates even as both declined year over year. Home deliveries fell about 14%, but a favorable mix lifted average selling prices roughly 8%. Net signed contracts rose nearly 7%, signaling resilient demand from higher-income buyers despite elevated mortgage rates. However, gross margin narrowed, and higher inventory impairments weighed on profitability. Management continued returning capital through share repurchases and a dividend increase, while Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to outperform, reflecting a cautiously improving outlook.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a focused selection of AI-powered trading bots from a broader universe of hundreds of available bots that trade thousands of different tickers. Because each bot applies its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, and performance profile, only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. Many of these bots emphasize high-probability setups and trade frequency that ranges from a handful of signals per week to dozens across multiple tickers. Browsing the list can help traders evaluate how algorithmic approaches are positioning across sectors such as housing. To explore the latest featured strategies, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between SKY and TOL lies in their business models and end markets. SKY's factory-built segment leans toward affordability, which can benefit when traditional home prices rise and buyers seek lower-cost alternatives, but it also leaves the company exposed to regional demand and retail distribution trends. TOL's luxury focus ties performance to higher-income buyers who are less rate-sensitive, yet it concentrates exposure on a narrower, premium price band.
Valuation and profitability also diverge. TOL generates strong earnings and trades at a much lower earnings multiple, while SKY's higher valuation reflects expectations for expansion and structural demand in affordable housing. On momentum, SKY has benefited from recent analyst upgrades and acquisition news, whereas TOL faces margin compression even as order growth holds up. Risk factors differ too: SKY is more exposed to affordable-housing financing dynamics, while TOL is sensitive to luxury-market cycles and land and construction costs. Both remain correlated to the broader housing cycle and mortgage-rate environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalyst momentum, Tickeron's AI would likely view SKY as the stronger relative candidate in the current environment. SKY's combination of earnings beats, rising analyst price targets, an upgrade, and an expansion-oriented acquisition suggests more consistent positive trend alignment. TOL's order growth and capital returns are constructive, but margin pressure and year-over-year earnings declines introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: relative positioning can shift quickly with changes in mortgage rates, housing data, and company-specific news, so each stock's trend should be monitored continuously.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SKY is a Hold and TOL is a StrongBuy.
SKY's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for SKY entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 151 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 115 of the 151 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SKY as a result. In 65 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SKY turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
SKY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SKY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SKY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 29 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 53 cases where SKY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Following a +2.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SKY advanced for three days, in 214 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
SKY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.614) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (21.951) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.220) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.777) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SKY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SKY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 64 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.459) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (10.804) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TOL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SKY | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 69 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SKY's Valuation (59) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SKY (77). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than SKY’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (64). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (69) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (70). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (32). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| SKY | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 74% | 21 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SKY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SKY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SKY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SKY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
SKY (@Homebuilding) experienced а -0.22% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +3.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
SKY is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.20% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
Advertisement
SKY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SKY has been closely correlated with TOL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SKY jumps, then TOL could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.