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SKY vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Skyline Champion (SKY) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Tickeron AI Verdict: TOL (Toll Brothers) is the current favorite, reflecting stronger trend consistency, positive order momentum, and broad analyst support relative to SKY (Skyline Champion).
- Both companies operate in U.S. housing but serve distinct segments: SKY produces factory-built manufactured and modular homes, while TOL focuses on luxury single-family communities.
- TOL has sustained net signed contract growth and shareholder returns despite softer deliveries, whereas SKY has pulled back in recent weeks after a mixed earnings report and an elevated valuation.
- Market positioning differs sharply: SKY is tied to the affordable-housing theme, while TOL serves higher-income, move-up buyers.
- For further detail on developments and price action, explore SKY Major News and SKY Today's Price Move, along with TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-driven strategies are positioning across the market, explore the curated Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to U.S. residential housing often face a choice between the affordable, factory-built segment and the luxury homebuilding market. SKY (Skyline Champion, recently rebranded as Champion Homes) and TOL (Toll Brothers) sit on opposite ends of that spectrum, making this a useful stock comparison for those evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and risk. While both companies are sensitive to mortgage rates and consumer affordability, their business models, growth drivers, and recent momentum have diverged. This comparison is most relevant to investors and traders seeking to understand how two housing-linked names with very different buyer bases are behaving in the current market environment.
SKY Overview and Recent Performance
SKY is one of North America's largest producers of factory-built housing, manufacturing and selling manufactured and modular homes, accessory dwelling units (ADUs, which are secondary housing units on existing residential lots), park-model RVs, and commercial modular structures. The company recently completed a rebrand from Skyline Champion to Champion Homes, sharpening its identity around off-site construction and the affordable-housing shortage.
Recent market activity has been mixed. Shares pulled back over recent weeks, with a roughly 6% to 12% decline across trailing one-month windows reported by various data providers, even as longer-term returns remain positive. The latest quarterly results showed earnings per share (EPS, or profit divided by shares outstanding) slightly below consensus expectations, alongside softer order trends in some channels and continued margin pressure from material costs. On the strategic front, the company has expanded its retail footprint through acquisitions, including Timberline Homes in the Southeastern U.S., and carries a substantial net cash position. Sentiment has been divided: some analysts highlight the affordability tailwind, while others note that the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio well above the broader consumer-durables industry, which could limit upside if demand softens further.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL is a leading luxury homebuilder focused on move-up, active-adult, and resort-style communities across the United States. Unlike SKY, its customer base skews toward higher-income buyers with greater financial flexibility, which has historically provided some insulation from affordability pressures.
Recent performance has been comparatively resilient. In its most recent quarterly report, TOL delivered revenue and adjusted EPS above consensus estimates, although both declined year over year as home deliveries fell. A key bright spot was order activity: net signed contracts rose from the prior year, and cancellations remained controlled, suggesting steady demand despite volatile mortgage rates. Margins came under pressure from higher costs and inventory-related charges, but the company continued returning capital through share repurchases and a higher quarterly dividend. Wall Street sentiment has stayed broadly positive, with a consensus Buy rating and price targets implying meaningful upside. This combination of order growth, disciplined buybacks, and analyst support has supported relative strength in the stock during recent weeks.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of its AI trading bots. Tickeron maintains a large library of AI trading bots that collectively monitor thousands of different tickers, but only a select subset is featured in the Trending AI Robots section at any given time, based on suitability for current market conditions. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance, and the specific set of tickers they trade, allowing investors to match a bot's approach to their own objectives. Reviewing this curated list can help traders identify which automated strategies are currently resonating with market dynamics. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to see the strategies currently standing out.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is their customer base and business model. SKY is a manufacturer tied to the affordability narrative, benefiting when buyers trade down to lower-cost housing options; TOL is a luxury builder whose fortunes depend on affluent buyers and move-up demand. This creates different risk profiles: SKY is more exposed to lower-income consumer health and input-cost inflation, while TOL is more sensitive to mortgage rates and high-end discretionary spending.
Growth drivers also diverge. SKY is pursuing vertical integration and retail expansion through acquisitions, aiming to convert policy support and builder adoption of off-site construction into sustained volume. TOL is leaning on its luxury positioning, land strategy, and capital returns to navigate a rate-sensitive cycle. On valuation, SKY carries a notably higher P/E multiple, while TOL trades at a more moderate multiple with a dividend yield and active buyback program. From a momentum standpoint, TOL has shown more stable price behavior recently, whereas SKY has experienced a sharper pullback.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor TOL over SKY. TOL has demonstrated greater trend consistency, with rising net signed contracts, controlled cancellations, a stronger balance-sheet narrative tied to shareholder returns, and a predominantly Buy-rated analyst consensus. By contrast, SKY has faced a recent earnings miss, softer order trends, and a valuation premium that could amplify downside if sentiment cools. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast: SKY retains a compelling long-term affordability thesis and a robust cash position, which could reassert itself if the macro backdrop improves. On current relative positioning, however, the AI's edge leans toward TOL.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SKY is a Buy and TOL is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for SKY turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SKY saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 26, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 76 of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SKY just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where SKY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
SKY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SKY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +9.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SKY advanced for three days, in 214 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SKY moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SKY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
SKY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SKY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.155) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (26.493) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.220) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.777) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 269 cases where TOL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 66 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
SKY | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 8 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SKY's Valuation (63) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (70). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (60). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (64). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
SKY's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (42). This means that SKY’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as SKY (20). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to SKY’s over the last 12 months.
| SKY | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 73% | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SKY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SKY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SKY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SKY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SKY (@Homebuilding) experienced а -3.27% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -4.73% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
SKY is expected to report earnings on Feb 08, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.38% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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SKY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SKY has been closely correlated with TOL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SKY jumps, then TOL could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.