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ARES or BN or TPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Management (ARES) vs. Brookfield Corporation (BN) vs. TPG (TPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARES leads in private credit scale, with assets under management (AUM) surpassing $670 billion and record quarterly fundraising, but shares have faced sector-wide sentiment pressure.
- BN offers the most diversified exposure — asset management, insurance/wealth solutions, and owned real assets — and trades at a wide discount to management's stated intrinsic value.
- TPG is the smallest of the three by AUM and the most private-equity-oriented, with a consensus Buy rating and the sharpest year-to-date share decline.
- All three are alternative asset managers benefiting from secular demand for private markets, but they differ sharply in business mix, growth drivers, and valuation sensitivity.
- Relative performance and market positioning favor credit-heavy and diversified models over pure private-equity exposure in the current environment.
Introduction
Alternative asset managers have become a focal point for investors seeking exposure to private credit, private equity, real assets, and insurance-linked capital. This stock comparison evaluates three prominent publicly traded names — ARES, BN, and TPG — that operate in the same broad industry yet pursue meaningfully different strategies. The comparison is relevant to investors assessing relative performance, business-model resilience, and market positioning across a sector that has drawn both strong capital inflows and, more recently, heightened scrutiny of private credit. Understanding the contrasts in revenue mix, growth drivers, and risk exposure can help both long-term investors and active traders evaluate which profile aligns with their objectives.
ARES Overview and Recent Performance
ARES (Ares Management Corporation) is a leading global alternative investment manager best known for its dominant private credit franchise, spanning direct lending, asset-based finance, and opportunistic credit, alongside private equity, real estate, and infrastructure. Total AUM (assets under management, or the total value of client capital the firm oversees) has expanded roughly 17–18% year over year to above $670 billion, supported by record quarterly fundraising of about $30 billion. Fee-related earnings — the recurring fee income that underpins profitability — rose approximately 26% in the most recent quarter.
Despite strong fundamentals, recent stock behavior has been mixed. Shares have declined substantially on a year-to-date basis, reflecting broader negative sentiment and scrutiny directed at the private credit industry rather than company-specific weakness. Management has emphasized continued institutional demand and improving lending terms. The firm's scale, record investment pipeline, and sizable available capital position it favorably, though investor sentiment around private credit remains a key swing factor.
BN Overview and Recent Performance
BN (Brookfield Corporation) is a diversified global investment firm with three core businesses: asset management, wealth solutions (an insurance and annuity platform), and operating businesses spanning infrastructure, renewable energy, private equity, and real estate. This structure gives Brookfield a broader and more diversified revenue base than typical alternative asset managers. Fee-bearing capital rose 12% to roughly $614 billion, and the firm held approximately $188 billion in deployable capital at the end of the most recent quarter.
Recent stock performance has been relatively resilient. Brookfield reported distributable earnings of about $1.6 billion and repurchased more than $1 billion of its own and affiliate shares, signaling management's view that the stock trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value. The firm has also been simplifying its corporate structure — most notably advancing a combination of the parent company with its insurance business — and completed the acquisition of U.K. insurer Just Group, expanding insurance assets to roughly $180 billion. These catalysts support a constructive outlook, balanced by the complexity of a large, multi-layered balance sheet.
TPG Overview and Recent Performance
TPG (TPG Inc.) is a leading global alternative asset manager founded in 1992, with approximately $306 billion in AUM and a diversified set of strategies including private equity, growth, impact, real estate, and market solutions. Compared with its two peers, TPG carries the most concentrated private-equity orientation and the smallest asset base, which can translate into higher sensitivity to realization activity and performance fees.
Recent stock behavior has been the weakest of the three, with shares down roughly 32% year to date and trading near the lower end of their 52-week range. Despite this, the firm reported a strong first quarter characterized by what management described as "step function growth" across capital formation, deployment, and realizations, and it continues to pay a quarterly dividend. Analyst sentiment remains constructive, with a consensus Buy rating and price targets well above the current price. The relative underperformance reflects a higher beta profile and investor caution toward private-equity-linked earnings visibility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three names diverge most sharply in business mix. ARES derives much of its growth from recurring credit fees, offering relatively stable, predictable earnings tied to AUM scale. BN layers asset-management fees with insurance cash flows and direct ownership of real assets, providing diversification but also balance-sheet complexity. TPG leans more heavily on private equity performance fees and realizations, which can be lumpier and more cyclical.
On growth drivers, ARES is scaling through private credit and asset-based finance; BN through insurance consolidation and infrastructure/energy capital deployment; and TPG through fundraising and deployment across its five platforms. In terms of recent momentum, BN has held up best while ARES and TPG have lagged, though ARES's decline reflects sector sentiment more than operating results. Risk factors differ: ARES faces private-credit credit-quality scrutiny, BN faces execution risk in its restructuring, and TPG faces realization-timing sensitivity. On valuation sensitivity, TPG carries the highest beta, while BN's discount to intrinsic value and ARES's recurring fee base offer more defensive characteristics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — trend consistency, earnings stability, diversification, and relative positioning — Tickeron's AI would likely favor BN in the current environment, given its diversified revenue streams, active capital return, and structural catalysts, with ARES a close second on the strength of its recurring fee base and record fundraising. TPG, while well-regarded by analysts, currently shows less favorable relative momentum. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current conditions rather than a definitive forecast; positioning among these names could shift as sentiment and catalysts evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Momentum Indicator for ARES turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ARES saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 98 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 76 of the 98 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ARES's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ARES just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where ARES's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +6.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARES advanced for three days, in 255 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for ARES crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARES declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
ARES broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ARES entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARES’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ARES's P/B Ratio (11.071) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.393). P/E Ratio (56.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.879) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.623) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Momentum Indicator for BN turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BN saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 80 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BN just turned positive on September 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where BN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +2.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BN advanced for three days, in 225 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
BN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BN entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.995) is normal, around the industry mean (2.393). P/E Ratio (67.804) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.135) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for TPG turns negative, indicating new downward trend
TPG saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 63 of the 80 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for TPG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for TPG entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TPG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TPG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where TPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The 50-day moving average for TPG moved above the 200-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +4.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TPG advanced for three days, in 232 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
TPG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.021) is normal, around the industry mean (2.393). P/E Ratio (38.154) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.053) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.203) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TPG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
ARES | BN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 87 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 92 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BN's Valuation (83) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as ARES (91). This means that BN’s stock grew similarly to ARES’s over the last 12 months.
BN's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as ARES (62). This means that BN’s stock grew similarly to ARES’s over the last 12 months.
BN's SMR Rating (87) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as ARES (95). This means that BN’s stock grew similarly to ARES’s over the last 12 months.
ARES's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BN (59). This means that ARES’s stock grew similarly to BN’s over the last 12 months.
ARES's P/E Growth Rating (80) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BN (92). This means that ARES’s stock grew similarly to BN’s over the last 12 months.
| ARES | BN | TPG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 66% | 6 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 66% | 7 days ago 67% | 12 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARES’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while BN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and TPG’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- ARES’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- BN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TPG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARES’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BN’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TPG’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARES’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- BN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TPG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ARES (@Investment Managers) experienced а +8.74% price change this week, while BN (@Investment Managers) price change was +3.69% , and TPG (@Investment Managers) price fluctuated +4.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -0.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARES is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
BN is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
TPG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-0.72% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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ARES and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARES has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARES jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARES | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARES | 100% | -1.31% | ||
| KKR - ARES | 83% Closely correlated | -1.88% | ||
| BX - ARES | 80% Closely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| TPG - ARES | 79% Closely correlated | -3.31% | ||
| OWL - ARES | 77% Closely correlated | -3.60% | ||
| APO - ARES | 77% Closely correlated | -1.74% | ||
More | ||||
TPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TPG has been closely correlated with CG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TPG jumps, then CG could also see price increases.