CF
Price
$102.17
Change
-$1.43 (-1.38%)
Updated
Jun 23 closing price
Capitalization
15.7B
42 days until earnings call
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
IPI
Price
$33.22
Change
-$1.16 (-3.37%)
Updated
Jun 23 closing price
Capitalization
446.25M
42 days until earnings call
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
MOS
Price
$21.25
Change
-$0.75 (-3.41%)
Updated
Jun 23 closing price
Capitalization
6.75B
40 days until earnings call
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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CF or IPI or MOS

CF vs IPI vs MOS Comparison Chart in %
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Which Stock Would AI Choose? CF Industries Holdings (CF) vs. Intrepid Potash (IPI) vs. The Mosaic Company (MOS) Stock Comparison

Key Takeaways

  • CF leads with strong YTD gains of approximately 49%, driven by robust Q1 earnings and nitrogen price support, outperforming peers significantly.
  • IPI shows YTD returns around 36%, bolstered by Q1 earnings beats and asset sales, though with higher volatility as a smaller pure-play potash producer.
  • MOS lags with negative YTD performance near -8%, pressured by margin compression, high sulfur costs, and operational idling in Brazil.
  • All three operate in the fertilizer sector but differ in focus: CF on nitrogen, IPI on potash, MOS on phosphate and potash, exposing them variably to commodity cycles.
  • Recent market activity reflects sector softness, with pullbacks amid softer demand, yet CF maintains relative strength due to earnings momentum.
  • Valuations vary, with CF at a forward P/E around 6.5x, offering attractiveness relative to growth prospects in low-carbon ammonia.

Introduction

This stock comparison examines CF, IPI, and MOS, key players in the fertilizer industry vital to global agriculture. These companies produce essential crop nutrients—nitrogen, potash, and phosphate—amid fluctuating commodity prices and supply dynamics. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term sector recovery will find value in understanding their relative performance, business models, and recent developments. With agriculture demand steady but margins sensitive to input costs like natural gas and sulfur, this analysis highlights contrasts in recent market positioning and growth drivers.

CF Overview and Recent Performance

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, primarily ammonia and urea for fertilizers, serving agricultural and industrial customers. In recent market activity, the stock has traded around $115, reflecting YTD gains of about 49% but pullbacks of roughly 5% over recent weeks amid broader sector consolidation. Strong Q1 2026 results, with net earnings of $615 million and adjusted EBITDA of $983 million, exceeded expectations due to higher realized nitrogen prices and a litigation settlement. Sentiment remains supported by low-cost U.S. natural gas advantages, share repurchases exceeding $1 billion annually, and progress in low-carbon ammonia projects, offsetting softer volumes.

IPI Overview and Recent Performance

IPI (Intrepid Potash, Inc.) is the only U.S. producer of muriate of potash, also offering Trio specialty fertilizer and oilfield solutions, focused on potassium, magnesium, and sulfur for agriculture and industry. Shares trade near $38, with YTD returns around 36% but modest 1-month flatness amid potash market stability. Recent Q1 2026 earnings beat estimates with adjusted EPS of $0.62 versus $0.48 expected, driven by higher potash volumes and the $70 million sale of non-core Intrepid South Ranch assets. Performance reflects operational improvements, though elevated equipment risks and analyst targets around $25 signal caution; positive sentiment stems from U.S.-centric production amid global supply concerns.

MOS Overview and Recent Performance

MOS (The Mosaic Company) produces concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients through segments including Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes in Brazil. The stock hovers around $22, down about 8% YTD and 13% over recent weeks, near 52-week lows due to weak demand and cost pressures. Anticipated Q1 EBITDA challenges arise from rising sulfur costs and Brazilian blockades, following idling of Araxá and Patrocínio facilities to cut output and pursue sales. A $0.22 quarterly dividend underscores shareholder returns, but margin compression from oversupply in phosphates weighs on sentiment, contrasting with steadier potash exposure.

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Head-to-Head Comparison

CF, IPI, and MOS share fertilizer sector exposure but diverge in business models: CF’s nitrogen focus benefits from U.S. natural gas cost edges (feedstock ~70% of costs), while IPI’s pure potash play offers U.S. self-sufficiency, and MOS balances phosphate (vulnerable to sulfur volatility) with potash. Growth drivers contrast—CF advances decarbonization catalysts like low-carbon ammonia; IPI leverages Trio fertilizer demand; MOS pursues Brazilian asset optimization. Recent momentum favors CF (49% YTD) over IPI (36%) and MOS (-8%), with CF’s stability (beta 0.42) versus IPI’s volatility (beta 1.26) and MOS (beta 0.80). Risks include commodity price swings for all, but MOS faces higher operational hurdles. Valuation sensitivity shows CF’s forward P/E ~6.5x most attractive amid earnings strength, while IPI trades at ~36x and MOS ~13x. Market sentiment tilts to CF on trend consistency, though potash tailwinds could lift IPI.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Tickeron’s AI currently favors CF based on superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, Q1 earnings beats, and catalysts like nitrogen pricing and capital returns. Relative positioning shows greater stability and lower valuation versus peers, with probabilistic edge in momentum continuation amid sector recovery. IPI offers potash upside potential, while MOS trails on margins; AI models weigh CF highest for current conditions.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.

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COMPARISON
Comparison
Jun 24, 2026
Stock price -- (CF: $102.17IPI: $33.22MOS: $21.25)
Brand notoriety: CF and MOS are notable and IPI is not notable
The three companies represent the Chemicals: Agricultural industry
Current volume relative to the 65-day Moving Average: CF: 66%, IPI: 85%, MOS: 95%
Market capitalization -- CF: $15.7B, IPI: $446.25M, MOS: $6.75B
$CF is valued at $15.7B, while IPI has a market capitalization of $446.25M, and MOS's market capitalization is $6.75B. The market cap for tickers in this @Chemicals: Agricultural ranges from $52.91B to $0. The average market capitalization across the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry is $9.1B.

Long-Term Analysis

It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).

CF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileIPI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and MOS’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).

  • CF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
  • IPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
  • MOS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
According to our system of comparison, CF is a better buy in the long-term than MOS, which in turn is a better option than IPI.

Short-Term Analysis

It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.

If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.

CF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while IPI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and MOS’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).

  • CF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
  • IPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
  • MOS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
According to our system of comparison, MOS is a better buy in the short-term than CF and IPI.

Price Growth

CF (@Chemicals: Agricultural) experienced а -3.24% price change this week, while IPI (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price change was -2.84% , and MOS (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price fluctuated -2.03% for the same time period.

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry was -2.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.46%.

Reported Earning Dates

CF is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.

IPI is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.

MOS is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.

Industries' Descriptions

@Chemicals: Agricultural (-2.25% weekly)

The agricultural chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemical products for the agricultural industry applications like crop protection, animal health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical-related products. Some of the largest agricultural chemicals producers include Nutrien Ltd., Corteva Inc., and FMC Corporation.

SUMMARIES
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FUNDAMENTALS
Fundamentals
CF($15.7B) has a higher market cap than MOS($6.75B) and IPI($446M). MOS has higher P/E ratio than IPI and CF: MOS (157.14) vs IPI (30.97) and CF (9.33). CF YTD gains are higher at: 33.352 vs. IPI (19.798) and MOS (-10.141). CF has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): 3.7B vs. MOS (1.99B) and IPI (55.4M). CF has more cash in the bank: 2.04B vs. MOS (282M) and IPI (99.3M). IPI has less debt than CF and MOS: IPI (3.68M) vs CF (3.62B) and MOS (5.76B). MOS has higher revenues than CF and IPI: MOS (12.4B) vs CF (7.41B) and IPI (302M).
CFIPIMOS
Capitalization15.7B446M6.75B
EBITDA3.7B55.4M1.99B
Gain YTD33.35219.798-10.141
P/E Ratio9.3330.97157.14
Revenue7.41B302M12.4B
Total Cash2.04B99.3M282M
Total Debt3.62B3.68M5.76B
FUNDAMENTALS RATINGS
CF vs IPI vs MOS: Fundamental Ratings
CF
IPI
MOS
OUTLOOK RATING
1..100
565269
VALUATION
overvalued / fair valued / undervalued
1..100
33
Fair valued
67
Overvalued
19
Undervalued
PROFIT vs RISK RATING
1..100
4693100
SMR RATING
1..100
288991
PRICE GROWTH RATING
1..100
596162
P/E GROWTH RATING
1..100
77863
SEASONALITY SCORE
1..100
501146

Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.

MOS's Valuation (19) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as CF (33) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for IPI (67) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that MOS's stock grew similarly to CF’s and somewhat faster than IPI’s over the last 12 months.

CF's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IPI (93) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MOS (100) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that CF's stock grew somewhat faster than IPI’s and somewhat faster than MOS’s over the last 12 months.

CF's SMR Rating (28) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IPI (89) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MOS (91) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that CF's stock grew somewhat faster than IPI’s and somewhat faster than MOS’s over the last 12 months.

CF's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as IPI (61) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry, and is in the same range as MOS (62) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that CF's stock grew similarly to IPI’s and similarly to MOS’s over the last 12 months.

MOS's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is significantly better than the same rating for CF (77) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for IPI (86) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that MOS's stock grew significantly faster than CF’s and significantly faster than IPI’s over the last 12 months.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
CFIPIMOS
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
76%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
83%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
64%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
75%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
78%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
73%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
76%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
72%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
66%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
74%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
73%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
67%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
79%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
73%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
62%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
78%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
73%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 21 days ago
72%
Bullish Trend 13 days ago
77%
Bullish Trend 7 days ago
74%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 9 days ago
68%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
75%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
75%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
74%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
90%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
68%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
67%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
78%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
57%
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CF
Daily Signal:
Gain/Loss:
IPI
Daily Signal:
Gain/Loss:
MOS
Daily Signal:
Gain/Loss:
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CF and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CF has been closely correlated with IPI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CF jumps, then IPI could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To CF
1D Price
Change %
CF100%
-1.38%
IPI - CF
68%
Closely correlated
-3.37%
NTR - CF
67%
Closely correlated
-1.14%
UAN - CF
51%
Loosely correlated
+0.02%
MOS - CF
40%
Loosely correlated
-3.41%
CTVA - CF
36%
Loosely correlated
+0.32%
More

IPI and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IPI has been closely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IPI jumps, then CF could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To IPI
1D Price
Change %
IPI100%
-3.37%
CF - IPI
69%
Closely correlated
-1.38%
NTR - IPI
60%
Loosely correlated
-1.14%
MOS - IPI
55%
Loosely correlated
-3.41%
CTVA - IPI
38%
Loosely correlated
+0.32%
UAN - IPI
37%
Loosely correlated
+0.02%
More

MOS and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MOS has been closely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MOS jumps, then CF could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To MOS
1D Price
Change %
MOS100%
-3.41%
CF - MOS
72%
Closely correlated
-1.38%
IPI - MOS
54%
Loosely correlated
-3.37%
NTR - MOS
51%
Loosely correlated
-1.14%
CTVA - MOS
43%
Loosely correlated
+0.32%
UAN - MOS
43%
Loosely correlated
+0.02%
More