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CMS or DUK or PPL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) vs. Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) vs. PPL Corporation (PPL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale contrast: DUK is the largest of the three by market capitalization, while CMS and PPL are mid-cap regulated utilities with more concentrated regional footprints.
- Growth profiles differ: PPL carries the most explicit multi-year earnings and dividend growth guidance, while Duke offers scale-driven stability and CMS leans on Michigan rate-base investment.
- Valuation spread is narrow: All three trade in a similar forward price-to-earnings band, with Duke at the lowest multiple and PPL showing the highest consensus upside relative to analyst targets.
- Dividend income is comparable: Each stock offers a forward yield in the roughly 3.3%–3.6% range, reflecting their shared regulated-utility business model.
- Sentiment is mixed but constructive: Analysts hold "Buy" consensus on all three, yet recent weeks brought a wave of downward price-target revisions across the sector.
Introduction
CMS Energy, Duke Energy, and PPL Corporation are three U.S. regulated electric and gas utilities frequently grouped together by income-oriented investors and sector specialists. Because utilities generate stable, rate-regulated cash flows, their stocks are often evaluated on relative performance, dividend durability, and long-term capital-investment plans rather than rapid top-line expansion. This stock comparison is most relevant to dividend-focused investors, defensive portfolio allocators, and traders tracking sector rotation and interest-rate sensitivity. Understanding how these names differ in geographic exposure, growth catalysts, and market positioning helps clarify which may be best suited to a given strategy in the current market environment.
CMS Overview and Recent Performance
CMS, or CMS Energy Corporation, operates principally through its Michigan-based regulated subsidiary, Consumers Energy, which serves roughly 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million natural gas customers. The company has increasingly focused on its regulated utility after a strategic pivot around its NorthStar Clean Energy segment, sharpening its growth story around grid reliability and clean-energy transition. In recent weeks, the stock has traded well below its 52-week high, with a beta near 0.31 underscoring its low-volatility profile. Analysts have remained broadly constructive, with some firms raising price targets even as others trimmed them. Upcoming quarterly results have kept investor attention on rate-base growth and regulatory execution in Michigan, the primary drivers of sentiment.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
DUK, or Duke Energy Corporation, is one of the largest U.S. energy holding companies, serving electric and gas customers across the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest through its Electric Utilities and Infrastructure and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segments. Its nuclear fleet and Southeast footprint position it to benefit from rising electricity demand, including from data centers. In recent weeks, Duke has traded closer to the lower portion of its 52-week range despite a "Buy" consensus, as several analysts lowered price targets while retaining constructive ratings. Broader utility-sector pressure from higher interest rates has weighed on the stock, even as its scale, diversified service territory, and long dividend-growth record (around 18 years) continue to anchor its defensive appeal.
PPL Overview and Recent Performance
PPL, or PPL Corporation, is a holding company of regulated utilities in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Rhode Island, serving about 3.6 million customers. Its growth narrative centers on significant capital investment and a rising data-center development pipeline, along with its Invitium Energy joint venture with Blackstone. Management has reiterated targets for roughly 6%–8% annual earnings-per-share (EPS, or profit divided by shares outstanding) growth and 4%–6% dividend growth. In recent weeks, PPL has traded in the lower half of its 52-week range despite maintaining one of the higher analyst upside estimates among the three. Rate-case outcomes in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, plus progress on load-growth agreements, have been key sentiment drivers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Across business models, the three names share a regulated-utility backbone but diverge in geography and catalysts. Duke's multi-state, nuclear-heavy footprint provides diversification and scale, while CMS is a single-state Michigan operator with a cleaner regulated focus and PPL spans three states with an aggressive data-center growth pipeline. On valuation, Duke trades at the lowest forward multiple, PPL carries the highest consensus upside versus its average price target, and CMS sits between the two. Risk factors also differ: CMS and PPL face concentrated regulatory and rate-case exposure, while Duke's larger capital program raises financing sensitivity to interest rates. In terms of market sentiment, all three have absorbed a recent wave of sector-wide target reductions, but their "Buy" consensus ratings suggest analysts still view fundamentals as supportive.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor DUK for its combination of scale, diversified service territory, lower relative valuation, and consistent long-term dividend record, which tend to align with trend-consistency and stability signals. That said, the framework would likely view PPL as a higher-growth, catalyst-rich alternative given its explicit EPS and dividend growth targets and expanding load-demand pipeline. CMS may present a more concentrated, steady-return profile. The relative ranking can shift with rate moves, regulatory outcomes, and earnings, so this assessment is best understood as a probabilistic read on current positioning rather than a fixed conclusion.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
CMS in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CMS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMS as a result. In 41 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMS just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
CMS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMS advanced for three days, in 167 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMS moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 11 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 35%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
CMS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CMS entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.285) is normal, around the industry mean (2.051). P/E Ratio (20.895) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.783). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.257) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.052) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.291) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
DUK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
DUK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 28 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DUK as a result. In 48 of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DUK just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where DUK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The 10-day moving average for DUK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DUK advanced for three days, in 168 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DUK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
DUK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DUK entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DUK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.812) is normal, around the industry mean (2.051). P/E Ratio (18.766) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.783). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.112) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.052) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.756) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PPL in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PPL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PPL as a result. In 42 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PPL just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where PPL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 38 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
PPL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PPL advanced for three days, in 180 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 156 of 320 cases where PPL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PPL moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 57%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PPL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.750) is normal, around the industry mean (2.051). P/E Ratio (20.576) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.783). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.176) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.052) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.670) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PPL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CMS | DUK | PPL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 29 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 53 Fair valued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 21 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 66 | 70 | 75 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 48 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 57 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PPL's Valuation (39) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (53) and is somewhat better than the same rating for CMS (75). This means that PPL's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and somewhat faster than CMS’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as PPL (28) and is in the same range as CMS (44). This means that DUK's stock grew similarly to PPL’s and similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's SMR Rating (66) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (70) and is in the same range as PPL (75). This means that CMS's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and similarly to PPL’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (50) and is in the same range as PPL (50). This means that DUK's stock grew similarly to CMS’s and similarly to PPL’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (57) and is in the same range as PPL (74). This means that CMS's stock grew similarly to DUK’s and similarly to PPL’s over the last 12 months.
| CMS | DUK | PPL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 31% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 37% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 48% | 11 days ago 50% | 11 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 43% | 24 days ago 41% | about 1 month ago 40% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 30% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 20% | 1 day ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while DUK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PPL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DUK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PPL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DUK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and PPL’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- DUK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PPL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CMS (@Electric Utilities) experienced а +1.28% price change this week, while DUK (@Electric Utilities) price change was +2.89% , and PPL (@Electric Utilities) price fluctuated -0.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was -0.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
DUK is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
PPL is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (-0.31% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
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CMS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMS has been closely correlated with DTE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMS jumps, then DTE could also see price increases.
DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.
PPL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PPL has been closely correlated with FE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PPL jumps, then FE could also see price increases.