Explore the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and its significance in intraday trading. Understand VWAP's role in trend confirmation, institutional strategies, and assessing trading activity. Learn its differences from simple moving averages and its limitations. Continue reading...
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is more than just a momentum oscillator; it's a versatile tool that, when used judiciously, can provide traders with valuable insights into market conditions. Continue reading...
Moving averages are important components of many technical indicators. A simple moving average determines the average of a range of closing prices for a security or index for a specific period of time. An exponential moving average is a moving average that gives more weight to the most recent data. Simple moving averages are not weighted for time the way that exponential moving averages are, which has the effect of snapping the chart to the most current information, while simple moving averages have lag. Continue reading...
In technical analysis, a level of resistance is an imaginary barrier that keeps the price of a security from rising beyond a certain level. Conversely, a level of support is an imaginary barrier that keeps the price of a security from falling beyond a certain level. A resistance line can be thought of as the theoretical glass ceiling that a security price has difficulty breaking through. Resistance lines (along with moving averages, standard deviation, and similar calculations) are used to put a range of probability on the expected movement of a security price, with the resistance line representing the top of that range. Continue reading...
Bollinger Bands were developed by famous trader John Bollinger as a technical analysis tool to discern the likely trading range of a security. A Bollinger Band is typically two standard deviations from a moving average line, both above and below the average. Standard deviation is another word for the average volatility of a price over a length of time. It is typical for a trader looking up the historical price chart for a security to compare it to a moving average line. Continue reading...
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a frequently used momentum indicator composed of several moving average lines. A MACD line is plotted by using the exponential moving average (EMA) over 12-day periods and subtracting the EMA of 26-day periods. A “signal line” – the 9-day EMA – is then plotted on top of the MACD line. A histogram is also usually included to indicate the divergence between the signal line and the MACD. When the MACD and the signal line cross paths, these points of convergence are widely used as trading indicators that trends are starting or ending. Continue reading...
Overbought is a term used when analysis indicates demand seems to have been escalated by investor emotion or media hype, beyond the point where it can be sustained or supported by fundamentals. The increased demand drives the price of the security up for a short time, before the overbought security likely experiences an eventual sell-off and price decline. It is hard to determine when a security is overbought, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), an momentum oscillator developed by Welles Wilder, is one tool that can help make a determination. In the RSI, the average gains and average losses over a specific time period (such as 14 days) are divided to calculate the Relative Strength, then normalized into the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is range bound between 0 and 100. The RSI typically fluctuates between values of 70 and 30, with higher numbers indicating more momentum. According to this indicator, a security with an RSI over 70 (out of 100) can be considered overbought. Continue reading...
Oversold describes a situation in which a security has an inherent value greater than its price, which has decreased due to low demand. It is hard to determine when a security is oversold, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), an momentum oscillator developed by Welles Wilder, is one tool that can help make a determination. In the RSI, the average gains and average losses over a specific time period (such as 14 days) are divided to calculate the Relative Strength, then normalized into the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is range bound between 0 and 100. The RSI typically fluctuates between values of 70 and 30, with higher numbers indicating more momentum. According to this indicator, a security with an RSI under 30 (out of 100) can be considered oversold Continue reading...
The Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (originally called the Cumulative Money Flow Line) tracks cash flow into or out of a security and correlates the cash flow changes to changes in the security price. By following the trading volume into or out of a security, it establishes the degree of correlation between this trading volume and the price of the security. Accumulation/distribution is designed to reveal divergences in price trends (specifically between stock price and trading volume). These divergences indicate the degree to which a security may be overbought or oversold at a given time. Continue reading...
The Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) was developed by analyst Perry Kaufman in an attempt to cancel out the noise of market volatility and inefficiency by using an efficiency ratio multiple. Kaufman’s algorithm is a bid to cancel out “noise” in the data used to create a moving average line. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is imperfect in part because of its reliance on historical data – if the data is not current, it tells traders nothing about how an asset may trend in the future. Some traders also believe that EMAs are biased by virtue of weighting recent data more heavily, which can lead to false signals and potential losing trades. Continue reading...
The advance/decline divergence oscillator (also called the McClellan Oscillator after its creators) tracks the rate of change in the advance-decline line (net advances). The AD line is formed from the Net Advances/Declines calculated daily at market close; this represents the proportion of stocks which advanced (increased) in price that day versus those which declined – the size of the difference is called the daily breadth. The advance/decline divergence oscillator can be applied to any group of stocks or exchange. Continue reading...
The Advance/Decline Ratio (AD Ratio) is a market breadth indicator, calculated by placing the number of advancing stocks over the number of declining stocks for a day or time period in order to view the direction of the market. It is one way of viewing the daily breadth, or difference in the number of advancing issues and declining issues. The Advance/Decline Ratio uses the same numbers as the Advance/Decline Line but presents them as a ratio instead. The AD Ratio is sometimes more useful than an AD Line, including in instances where comparing AD for different indexes which have different metrics; the ratio is the standardization with which comparisons can be made. Continue reading...
Consensus in investing is a measure of how in line investor beliefs are with one another. It describes strong trends in both trading and investor sentiment, often manifesting as bullish or bearish outlooks on a security or market. Bullish or bearish outlooks can be misleading, however. Opinions are not facts, and the noise of opinions from news sources and pundits can make opinions seem more factual than they are. Many investors require time to develop and form opinions, or form opinions for the wrong reasons, and can succumb to a herd mentality Continue reading...
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) combines the average directional index (ADX), plus directional indicator (+DI), and minus directional indicator (-DI) into one graph that depicts the strength of positive or negative market forces. By plotting the directional indicators together with the ADX line, traders can get a sense of overall movement and determine a trend’s strength and direction. The DMI is a useful illustration of a key point: the ADX is most useful when combined with other indicators to determine whether it makes sense to trade with a trend. The ADX normally depicts three lines in order to give traders an accurate depiction of both the strength and direction of trends: the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), as well as the ADX lines. The DIs indicate trend direction, while the ADX depicts trend strength. Continue reading...
Dow Theory is perhaps the longest-standing method of market analysis still used in modern finance. It suggests that markets experience primary trends (which last several years), intermediate trends (which last under a year), and minor trends (which last less than a month). Markets are in an upward trend if an average exceeds certain thresholds, followed by a similar movement from another average. Longer, larger trends are considered more predictive than smaller ones, though correctly reading the primary trend in the main goal. Continue reading...
Moving averages are important components of many technical indicators. The Endpoint Moving Average (EPMA) is a popular method of plotting a line that uses linear regression instead of averages, which reduces the noise of market price activity and can reveal or follow trends. Compared to a simple moving average, this method hews more closely to data and lags less. A moving average line averages prices in a given time period (such as the 30 days leading up to each day), and plots that point on a chart; when connected, the collection of points becomes the moving average line. Continue reading...
Moving average envelopes and trading bands help traders filter their decisions to trade. These tools set thresholds on the amount of movement above and below a moving average to trigger a decision to trade (or at least prompt further consideration by the trader). A moving average envelope often takes a moving average line for a security or index and duplicates it, moving one line a certain percentage above and one a certain percentage below (the distance may depend on volatility levels). Price fluctuations in a security then might trigger a decision to sell when the price hits the upper band, or a decision buy when the price hits the lower band. If it crosses the bands it might be seen as a new trend. Continue reading...
Moving averages are important components of many technical indicators. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) uses the closing prices of all the previous trading days for a given interval to calculate an average price from that for the period, but is weighted to give the most recent days more influence over the final number. The weighted averages are plotted in a line that helps traders follow trends. Continue reading...
Fibonacci numbers are part of the Fibonacci sequence, where the two previous numbers are added together to calculate the next number in the sequence. The ratio of two Fibonacci numbers is the Golden Ratio, or 1.61803398875, which has been used since ancient times as the perfect proportion in architecture and other design. The Golden Ratio is also known as Phi (pronounced “fee”). Because Fibonacci numbers are found throughout the natural world, they have been integrated into some traders’ strategies for market analysis. Continue reading...
Often referred to in the media as “New Highs and New Lows,” the High-Low Index is an observation of the number of stocks which hit 52-week highs or lows in the current day. The High-Low Index is usually expressed as a simple moving average (10-day or longer) of the Record High Percent. A Simple Moving Average (SMA) is a technical indicator that can help traders determine whether a bull or bear trend will continue or reverse course. It typically adds up closing prices for a given time period, then divides that figure by the number of time periods used for the average. Simple moving averages are effective in their simplicity, but their efficacy is most closely tied to how they are used. By giving equal weight to each data point, SMAs can limit bias towards any specific point in a specific time period. Continue reading...
Stochastic oscillators are a popular momentum indicator used in technical analysis and prized for their accuracy and clarity. They can provide overbought or oversold signals to traders and even be combined with other indicators, like moving averages or the Relative Strength Index (RSI), to unearth insights that support profit-maximizing trades. Stochastics gauge an asset’s closing price in comparison to a range (measured 0-100) of closing prices over a mutable (though most often 14-day) time period, creating overbought (readings of 80-plus) and oversold (readings of 20 or under) trading signals. Continue reading...
The Positive Volume Index (PVI) is a technical indicator that tracks increases in trade volume for an index or security, as well as the changes in price on those days. Paul Dysart developed the original version of this indicator for market indexes using advance-decline numbers instead of prices. The Positive Volume Index was then redesigned by Norman Fosback for individual securities – the version commonly used today. Continue reading...
The Negative Volume Index (NVI) is a technical indicator that tracks decreases in trade volume for an index or security, as well as price changes on those days. Paul Dysart developed the original version of this indicator for market indexes, and it garnered renewed attention when it was reworked in the 1970s via Norman Fosback in his book Stock Market Logic. The price changes in a security or the percentage change in an index are only added to or subtracted from the Negative Volume Index on days when the trading volume is lower than the day before. By watching market movement on days with lower trading volume, investors can identify where institutions and fund managers are moving their money. If trading volume is down and the market continues to do well, it means that there is a strong bullish primary trend, and that trading volume is not artificially pushing prices around. Continue reading...
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. to measure asset momentum using price changes and the speed of those changes. Like stochastics, the RSI is an oscillator that reads between 0 and 100; in this case, the RSI calculation determines the ratio of upward and downward movement using 14 periods of data, then smooths it out so only strong trends approach 0 or 100. Traders traditionally interpret RSI values of 70 or greater as an indicator of an overbought asset, while values 30 or below indicate an asset has been oversold; higher or lower values (like 80 and 20) can be used to minimize the number of bought or sold readings. Continue reading...
R-squared is a statistical tool called a correlation coefficient. It is a percentage measurement that represents how closely correlated a security’s movement is with the movements of a benchmark index. Values range between 0 and 1 and are often expressed as percentages between 0% and 100%. A higher R-squared (between 85% and 100%) tells investors that a security moves more or less in correlation with the benchmark index. A lower R-squared (70% or less) means that the security in question moves independently from the index. Continue reading...
The Sharpe Ratio is a risk-weighted metric for returns on investment. It measures whether an investment offers a good return for the amount of risk assumed by the investor. The risk/return trade-off is a positive linear relationship in most theoretical depictions – if an investor seeks greater returns, they will have to take on greater risk. For more stability and less risk, an investor will have to sacrifice some potential returns. Continue reading...
Unlevered beta is crucial for investors and analysts assessing a company’s market risk independent of its debt. This article breaks down unlevered beta’s definition, importance in equity valuation, and how it enhances trading strategies by isolating asset-based risk. Dive in for a deeper understanding of this essential financial metric and how AI-driven tools like Tickeron’s A.I.dvisor can refine your market insights. Continue reading...
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) helps traders consider the influence of volume on prices. VWAP is calculated by taking the average of prices from a time period and dividing it by the trading volume for the current day. Traders use VWAP to confirm trends and decide whether to take long or short positions, while large institutions are likely to use VWAP to avoid disrupting market prices, finding the liquid and illiquid price points and trading so as not to move prices away from the averages. Continue reading...
A weighted average is a calculation considers the relative importance or relevance of a piece of data. Weighted averages multiply numbers in the average by a predetermined factor, like time, that enhances the relevance given to the number. One example of a weighted average is the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an alternative to the Simple Moving Average (SMA) line which gives greater weight to the more recent data. SMAs are effective in their simplicity, but their efficacy is most closely tied to how they are used. Continue reading...
The Absolute Breadth Index (ABI) is a market breadth indicator, calculated using the absolute value of the difference between the number of advancing stocks and declining stocks to indicate the size of market movement without considering price direction. Larger ABI numbers will indicate more volatility. When breadth is smaller, it means that the market isn’t experiencing significant movement, or movement in a definitive direction. When advances or declines pull away from the other, it indicates the presence of market-wide trends. Continue reading...
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a popular leading indicator introduced in the 1960s by Joe Granville. OBV is a line built using differences between daily trading volume – in Granville’s estimation, the major driver of market behavior – adding the difference on days that the market or stock moves up and subtracting the difference on days when the market or stock moves down. It looks for instances of rising volume that should correlate with price movement, but price movement has not occurred; additionally, OBV can be used to confirm lag. Continue reading...
The Aroon Indicators are a pair of momentum indicators – the Aroon Up value and Aroon Down value – named after the Sanskrit word for the first light of day. Each indicator represents a standardized value for the strength of the upward or downward pressure on a stock, which analysts can compare to determine if there is a trend emerging. Aroon looks at the latency between highs for certain rolling time periods, with 25 days being the standard time frame. Continue reading...
Price movement often occurs in a range-bound way, even when an uptrend or downtrend is in effect. Fibonacci channels estimate support and resistance numbers using Fibonacci numbers, which are found throughout the natural world, in order to define possible places where reversals will occur. Fibonacci numbers are related to the study of chaos theory, which seeks to find order in complex systems. Since the markets have so many variables, but no lack of data, they are an excellent place to search for Fibonacci patterns. Continue reading...
Fibonacci lines, retracements, and extensions are used by chartists to identify possible future support and resistance levels, as well as areas where there may be reversals. Investors can use this information to put hedges or speculative bets in place, if they believe that, like many naturally occurring systems in nature, the market behavior will exhibit some fractal-like forms that can be measured with Fibonacci sequence numbers and the Golden Ratio. Continue reading...
In Fibonacci line analysis, chartists attempt to predict how far a trend will go in a single direction, despite some minor pullbacks that do not break the overall, stronger trend (behavior known as retracements). Trends can be upward or downward and still experience this phenomenon. Fibonacci extensions are estimations of the next high after an initial push and retracement, using Fibonacci sequences as guidelines. Some investors believe that, like many naturally occurring systems in nature, mark... Continue reading...
Fibonacci Fans are a charting technique that combines traditional Fibonacci lines and Fibonacci channels. They use the Fibonacci levels in a radial way, drawing trendlines from a point of primary importance, such as a low or peak, to identify future points of retracement or extension. Some investors believe that, like many naturally occurring systems in nature, market behavior will exhibit some fractal-like forms that can be measured with Fibonacci sequence numbers and the Golden Ratio. Modern computing power has uncovered plentiful examples of the Golden Ratio in nature, from Nautilus shells to musical harmonics, as well as mathematical fractal patterns. Fibonacci numbers are related to the study of chaos theory, which seeks to find order in complex systems. Since the markets have so many variables, but no lack of data, they are an excellent place to search for Fibonacci patterns. Continue reading...
Fibonacci numbers are part of the Fibonacci sequence, where the two previous numbers are added together to calculate the next number in the sequence. The ratio of two Fibonacci numbers is the Golden Ratio, or 1.61803398875, which has been used since ancient times as the perfect proportion in architecture and other design. The Golden Ratio is also known as Phi (pronounced “fee”). Because Fibonacci numbers are found throughout the natural world, they have been integrated into some traders’ strategies for market analysis. Continue reading...
Fibonacci Retracements are places where a Fibonacci lines and arcs. If a retracement has a length that proportionally fits within certain parameters in comparison to the uptrend that preceded it, some traders attempt to predict the size of the uptrend that will come afterwards using Fibonacci numbers. The most popular retracement percentages to use are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. Fibonacci numbers are part of the Fibonacci sequence, where the two previous numbers are added together to calculate the next number in the sequence. The ratio of two Fibonacci numbers is the Golden Ratio, or 1.61803398875, which has been used since ancient times as the perfect proportion in architecture and other design. The Golden Ratio is also known as Phi (pronounced “fee”). Because Fibonacci numbers are found throughout the natural world, they have been integrated into some traders’ strategies for market analysis. Continue reading...
Chartists are technical traders, theorists, and experts in charting, with the goal of better representing data and using charts to the greatest effect in trading. They attempt to find parameters and algorithms that can offer efficient trading signals and profits, using only the information present on charts – a type of technical analysis. Technical analysis is a discipline that involves identifying price ranges, trend momentum, and points of possible reversals via graphical representations of the math behind price movements, examining information to the second or third derivative, and using trial-and-error with formulas. Geometry, calculus, physics, and finance all play a part in this methodology. Continue reading...
The Golden Cross is a breakout candlestick pattern formed when the short term 50-day moving average for a security exceeds its long term 200-day average, backed by high trading volumes. Investors typically interpret this crossover as a harbinger of a bull market, and its impact can reverberate throughout index sectors. The longer time horizons tend to increase the predictive power of the Golden Cross. As seen in the chart in this example, a trader may view the moment when a 50-day moving average (blue line) crosses above a 100-day or 200-day moving average (red line) as a bullish sign for the stock or security. A trader may consider taking a long position in the security, or perhaps explore call options to take advantage of the potential upside. Continue reading...
The Death Cross is the inverse of a Golden Cross: a chart pattern occurring when a security’s short-term moving average crosses underneath its long-term counterpart, typically followed by an increase in trading volume. A death cross, which like a golden cross most commonly uses long-term 50-day and 200-day moving averages to detect the pattern, usually signifies an incoming bear market to traders. Continue reading...
The Accumulative Swing Index (ASI) is a trendline representing the running total of an oscillator called the Swing Index, first described by Webb Wilder in his book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.” The Swing Index itself compares the price data from the current period and the preceding period to quantify the positive or negative “swing,” which can be understood as a measure of directional velocity in a price. Continue reading...
Alan Andrews designed Andrew’s Pitchfork to define a trend with support and resistance lines around a median line, all three of which are derived from three points at peaks and troughs around the onset of a current trend. The overlay takes the shape of a trident or pitchfork, with Andrews calling the lines “tines,” after a pitchfork’s prongs. The origin point is placed at the location of a major trend reversal or a definitive support/resistance level, forming beginning of the pitchfork’s “handle.” Once the incline of the pitchfork is suitable, traders can attempt to use it for indications of overbought/oversold conditions, or to indicate a transition to a new trend. Continue reading...
Richard Arms invented the analysis tool that bears his name in 1967. The Arms Index, a technical analysis indicator, is also called the TRIN (short for “Trading Index”) because it seeks to indicate overbought or oversold conditions by serving as an index of trading activity relative to price. The Arms index is calculated using readily available data from major indexes such as the S&P 500 or NASDAQ. The ratio of the number of advancing stocks (stocks whose prices are increasing) to the number of declining stocks (stocks whose prices are decreasing) is computed to give us the A/D Ratio, a market breadth indicator that is one way of viewing the daily breadth of a security. The Advance/Decline Ratio uses the same numbers as the Advance/Decline Line but presents them as a ratio instead. The AD Ratio is sometimes more useful than an AD Line, including in instances where comparing AD for different indexes which have different metrics; the ratio is the standardization with which comparisons can be made. Continue reading...
The Chaikin Oscillator is a volume indicator that can help traders discern if price movements are verified by changes in trading volume. When there are discrepancies, it can mean that prices are exhibiting overbought or oversold conditions. Before the Chaikin Oscillator, On-Balance Volume was the most popular indicator for the job. On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a popular leading indicator introduced in the 1960s by Joe Granville. OBV is a line built using differences between daily trading volume – in Granville’s estimation, the major driver of market behavior – adding the difference on days that the market or stock moves up and subtracting the difference on days when the market or stock moves down. It looks for instances of rising volume that should correlate with price movement, but price movement has not occurred; additionally, OBV can be used to confirm lag. Continue reading...
The Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) is a relatively uncomplicated tool of analysis that can be used to simplify a chart and identify conditions ripe for buying or selling. It turns the moving average line of a price chart into a flat horizontal axis, with prices plotted according to their distance from the moving average. Moving averages are important components of many technical indicators. A simple moving average determines the average of a range of closing prices for a security or index for a specific period of time. An exponential moving average is a moving average that gives more weight to the most recent data. Simple moving averages are not weighted for time the way that exponential moving averages are, which has the effect of snapping the chart to the most current information, while simple moving averages have lag. Continue reading...
The Ease of Movement (EMV) indicator measures the degree to which prices can be moved by a lower volume of trading. It was developed by Richard Arms, inventor of the Arms Index, which also attempts to quantify the relationship between price movements and volume. High positive values indicate a present tendency for prices to increase on low volume, and larger negative values indicate that prices are slipping lower but with relatively low trade volume. Continue reading...
A moving average ribbon is created by plotting many incremental moving average lines on top of the same price chart. The visual relationship of the moving averages can help reveal crossover points, which traders can use as trade signals. As with other crossover indicators, the shorter-term moving average lines will tend to move more than the longer-term ones, and the degree of momentum that the crossovers imply increases for moving average lines of lengthier look-back periods. Continue reading...
W.D. Gann developed a suite of technical analysis tools around the 1930s, with Gann Fans being among the most essential in his toolkit. Gann fans are a collection of lines placed on a price chart that, in theory, help traders gauge potential price changes. Gann theorized that prices were likely to be sequentially bound by markers; that is, if a price broke through one marker, it would be likely to use the next ones as its new support or resistance level. The range between the lines gets wider the further they extend from the origin, which makes Gann fans suitable for long-term charting in which the number of traders and the size of total market cap grows over time. Continue reading...
The Herrick Payoff Index is one of the only technical indicators to combine price, volume, and open interest data for the analysis of futures, commodities, and derivatives. The Herrick Payoff’s main function is to elucidate whether money is flowing into – or out of – the derivative instrument in question. It can be useful for spotting divergences that may occur before prices change direction, or for confirming price trends. Continue reading...
Open interest, or OI, can be a very important number for futures, options, and other derivative markets, but it can also be important to traders in the traditional stock market. Open interest in derivatives of stocks indicates that there is a deep market for the stock itself, since many of the positions may eventually require the purchase of the stock. Increases and decreases in open interest may help a trader understand if there's significant action in a security's price movements, which can determine liquidity needs as well as whether the price movements are rooted in actual supply and demand characteristics. Continue reading...
A momentum indicator allows for a quick comparison of a security’s current price relative to its past prices using a flexible time period, allowing traders to decide the parameters. The formula to calculate momentum is M = V – Vx (where V is the current price and Vx is the closing price from x number of days ago). A current price in excess of past price is a positive momentum indicator; a lower current price represents negative momentum. Continue reading...
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator developed by Welles Wilder. In the RSI, the average gains and average losses over a specific time period (such as 14 days) are divided to calculate the Relative Strength, then normalized into the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is range bound between 0 and 100. The RSI typically fluctuates between values of 70 and 30, with higher numbers indicating more momentum. According to this indicator, a security with an RSI over 70 (out of 100) can be considered overbought, while a security with an RSI under 30 (out of 100) can be considered oversold. Continue reading...