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CFG vs ONB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Citizens Financial Group (CFG) vs. Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CFG is a large regional bank (roughly $27 billion market cap) with a diversified franchise and a growing Private Bank, while ONB is a smaller Midwest-centered regional bank (roughly $9 billion market cap) still integrating its Bremer acquisition.
- Both names carry "Buy" analyst consensus, but CFG has delivered stronger recent momentum with roughly 22% one-year price gains versus roughly 12% for ONB.
- ONB trades at a lower valuation (forward price-to-earnings near 8–9) and reports a higher return on equity (ROE, near 10.6%) than CFG (near 8.3%).
- Beta differs meaningfully: CFG (about 1.06) is more volatile than the market, while ONB (about 0.86) is less volatile.
- Both stocks have pulled back in recent weeks after strong runs, a common pattern for rate-sensitive regional banks.
Introduction
Regional banks occupy a unique corner of the market, balancing interest-rate exposure with local lending economics. This stock comparison examines two names at different points on that spectrum: CFG, Citizens Financial Group, a diversified super-regional with a national footprint, and ONB, Old National Bancorp, a disciplined Midwest-focused franchise. Traders weighing relative performance, market positioning, and valuation will find the contrast instructive, while longer-term investors may focus on growth drivers, credit quality, and capital returns. Both have benefited from a more normalized yield curve and improving net interest income (NII, the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits), yet their scale and strategy set them apart.
CFG Overview and Recent Performance
CFG (Citizens Financial Group) operates consumer and commercial banking businesses across a broad footprint, supported by a granular deposit base that funds more than 90% of its balance sheet. Recent market activity has been constructive: the stock has climbed more than 20% over the past year and has traded within a 52-week range of roughly $48 to $75. Recent quarters showed strong operating momentum, including earnings per share (EPS) growth near 47% year over year and net interest margin (NIM, a measure of lending profitability) expansion of more than 20 basis points, in part reflecting fixed-rate asset repricing and non-core runoff.
Sentiment has also been lifted by credit improvement, lower net charge-offs (loans written off as uncollectible), and strategic progress in its Private Bank, which has scaled deposits and loans rapidly. In September 2026, Fitch Ratings upgraded the firm's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to "A-," citing improved earnings power and a strong deposit franchise. Still, the stock has moderated in recent weeks from its highs, and its higher beta makes it more sensitive to shifts in the broader market and interest-rate expectations.
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
ONB (Old National Bancorp), headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, is a commercial and retail bank with a strong presence across the Midwest and select adjacent markets. The company has been integrating its acquisition of Bremer Financial, which meaningfully expanded its scale, deposits, and geographic reach. Over the past year the stock has risen roughly 12%, trading in a 52-week range near $19 to $27, and it has advanced about 10% year to date while recently pulling back from its summer highs.
Fundamentally, ONB reports a return on equity (ROE) above 10% and a return on assets (ROA, net income relative to total assets) above 1.2%, supported by steady fee income and resilient margins. Analysts highlight a substantial portfolio of fixed-rate loans and securities expected to reprice at higher yields over the coming year, which could support net interest income. The bank has also raised its quarterly dividend, reflecting confidence in its capital position. As a smaller, lower-beta institution, it has generally displayed less day-to-day volatility than its larger peer.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks diverge most clearly on scale and diversification. CFG operates a broader, more diversified model spanning consumer, commercial, capital markets, and wealth businesses, while ONB is a more focused, relationship-driven regional lender concentrated in the Midwest. This difference flows into growth drivers: CFG leans on Private Bank expansion and fee-income growth, whereas ONB's near-term story centers on acquisition synergies and loan repricing.
On valuation and profitability, the trade-off is clear. ONB carries a lower forward price-to-earnings multiple and higher ROE and ROA, but CFG offers greater revenue diversity and recently stronger earnings momentum. Risk factors also differ: CFG's higher beta and capital-markets exposure introduce more sensitivity to market swings, while ONB faces integration execution risk tied to Bremer and somewhat higher short interest relative to its float. From a sentiment standpoint, both enjoy "Buy" consensus ratings and recently raised price targets, yet CFG's stronger relative performance and rating upgrade have drawn more visible institutional attention.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CFG in the current environment, though the preference is probabilistic rather than definitive. The case for CFG rests on stronger recent momentum, accelerating EPS and margin expansion, a credit upgrade, and a clear, multi-year growth catalyst in its Private Bank. Its higher beta, however, means that relative edge could narrow if volatility returns. ONB remains an attractive candidate on valuation and profitability, with the loan-repricing tailwind offering a steadier, lower-beta profile. Investors focused on trend consistency and catalysts may find CFG slightly better positioned today, while value- and stability-oriented investors could view ONB as a more defensive regional-bank alternative.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CFG is a Hold and ONB is a Hold.
CFG's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CFG entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 140 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 106 of the 140 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CFG as a result. In 52 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CFG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CFG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 55 cases where CFG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CFG just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where CFG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +1.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CFG advanced for three days, in 195 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
CFG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 7 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CFG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.109) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (13.626) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.647) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.304) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
ONB's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for ONB moved out of oversold territory on September 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 57 cases where ONB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ONB as a result. In 56 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONB just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONB advanced for three days, in 170 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
ONB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator for ONB entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.145) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (11.018) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.482) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ONB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CFG | ONB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 6 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 7 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONB's Valuation (46) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CFG (65). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to CFG’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CFG (42). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to CFG’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's SMR Rating (6) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (9). This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CFG (55). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to CFG’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (48). This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
| CFG | ONB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CFG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ONB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CFG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ONB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CFG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CFG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ONB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
CFG (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.33% price change this week, while ONB (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.75% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
CFG is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
ONB is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.78% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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CFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CFG has been closely correlated with RF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CFG jumps, then RF could also see price increases.
ONB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB | 100% | +0.04% | ||
| ASB - ONB | 90% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| FNB - ONB | 89% Closely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| FULT - ONB | 89% Closely correlated | +0.22% | ||
| ZION - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +0.57% | ||
| WTFC - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +0.38% | ||
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