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NVR vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVR, Inc. (NVR) vs. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NVR and TOL operate in the U.S. homebuilding sector and have faced revenue and earnings pressure amid affordability challenges and higher input costs in recent market activity.
- NVR reported second-quarter 2026 results with consolidated revenue of $2.33 billion and diluted earnings per share of $83.96, reflecting year-over-year declines, while new orders increased 9%.
- TOL is scheduled to release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on August 18, 2026, with analysts expecting a year-over-year EPS decline of approximately 22%.
- NVR maintains a capital-light model with a focus on controlled lots and mortgage banking, contributing to historically strong return on equity metrics compared with peers.
- TOL emphasizes luxury communities, recently opening new waterfront and high-end projects that support its positioning in less rate-sensitive buyer segments.
- Relative performance shows both stocks trading below broader market gains in recent weeks, with sector-wide sentiment influenced by mortgage rates and buyer demand trends.
Introduction
Homebuilders NVR and TOL represent distinct approaches within the residential construction industry, making their comparison relevant for investors seeking exposure to U.S. housing demand. NVR employs an asset-light strategy centered on lot control and integrated mortgage operations, while TOL targets the luxury segment with premium communities. Traders and portfolio managers focused on cyclical sectors, relative value, or momentum within homebuilding may find this analysis useful for assessing positioning amid evolving interest-rate and affordability dynamics.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, operating primarily through its Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands while maintaining a mortgage banking subsidiary. The company follows a capital-efficient model that emphasizes control of building lots rather than outright ownership. In recent market activity, NVR shares have traded near the $6,300 level following its July 23, 2026, second-quarter earnings release. That report showed consolidated revenue of $2.33 billion and net income of $236.5 million ($83.96 per diluted share), both down year-over-year, amid higher lot costs and pricing pressure. Offsetting factors included a 9% rise in new orders to 5,885 units and backlog growth, which provided some support to sentiment despite the earnings contraction.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. specializes in luxury single-family homes and has expanded its community portfolio with new waterfront and high-end projects. The company’s strategy centers on affluent buyers who tend to be less sensitive to mortgage-rate fluctuations. In recent weeks, TOL shares have hovered near $148, with the stock recording a year-to-date return of approximately 10%. Attention now shifts to the August 18, 2026, third-quarter earnings release, where analysts project revenue near $2.6 billion and EPS of about $2.90, reflecting expected year-over-year declines. Recent community openings have underscored the firm’s growth initiatives, though broader sector headwinds related to affordability continue to influence trading patterns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
NVR and TOL differ in scale and segment focus: NVR serves a broader buyer base with an integrated mortgage operation that can stabilize revenue, whereas TOL concentrates on luxury properties that command higher margins but face narrower demand. Growth drivers for NVR include backlog expansion and order growth observed in its latest quarter, while TOL highlights new community launches. Recent momentum has been subdued for both amid sector-wide revenue pressure, though NVR’s capital-light structure has historically supported stronger return metrics. Risk factors include exposure to rising lot and construction costs for NVR and potential luxury-buyer hesitation for TOL. Market sentiment remains tied to interest-rate trajectories and housing affordability, creating trade-offs between NVR’s operational resilience and TOL’s premium positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, backlog stability, and relative positioning within the homebuilding sector, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable risk-adjusted performance to NVR. Its capital-efficient model and recent order growth provide a buffer against cyclical pressures, though both stocks remain sensitive to macroeconomic variables. This assessment reflects probabilistic weighting rather than a definitive ranking.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVR is a Hold and TOL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NVR (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.80% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -0.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.14%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVR is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.63% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| NVR | TOL | NVR / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 16.9B | 13.7B | 123% |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 1.7B | 98% |
| Gain YTD | -12.811 | 9.374 | -137% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.53 | 11.85 | 139% |
| Revenue | 9.82B | 11B | 89% |
| Total Cash | 1.68B | 1.11B | 152% |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 2.92B | 36% |
NVR | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (64) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (71). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (81). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (30) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (54). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (60). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (50). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| NVR | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 60% | 19 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 55% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 63% |
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NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.