Advertisement
NVR vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVR, Inc. (NVR) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NVR and TOL both operate in U.S. homebuilding but serve different buyers — NVR targets entry-level and move-up households, while Toll Brothers focuses on luxury communities.
- Both face a softening housing market defined by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates, yet their earnings trends have diverged in recent quarters.
- NVR has reported steeper earnings and revenue declines, margin compression, and rising cancellation rates alongside cautious analyst ratings.
- Toll Brothers has shown firmer demand from affluent buyers, recently growing revenue and earnings per share (EPS) year over year while maintaining buybacks and dividends.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on observable trend, valuation, and momentum factors, Tickeron's AI currently favors Toll Brothers (TOL) over NVR (NVR).
- For additional context, explore NVR Major News and NVR Today's Price Move, along with TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see which AI-driven strategies are currently favored, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
NVR, Inc. and Toll Brothers, Inc. are two of the largest publicly traded U.S. homebuilders, but they occupy different ends of the housing market. NVR's Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands emphasize first-time and move-up buyers, while TOL specializes in luxury and "affordable luxury" communities. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how business model, buyer mix, and momentum differ across the homebuilding sector during a period of soft demand and elevated mortgage rates. Reviewing their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify which name presents more balanced risk-reward characteristics today.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. is a Reston, Virginia-based homebuilder operating Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking segments under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands. The company is known for an asset-light model that uses lot purchase agreements to acquire finished lots rather than holding large land positions — a structure that supports high return on equity (ROE) and a net-cash balance sheet.
Recent performance has been pressured. In its latest quarterly report, NVR posted a double-digit decline in net income and a year-over-year revenue drop, while homebuilding gross margin compressed on higher lot costs and competitive pricing. New orders fell, the cancellation rate rose to roughly 21%, and the average selling price (ASP) of new orders declined. Homebuilder sentiment has weakened to multi-year lows, and several analysts have recently lowered ratings or price targets. The shares have traded below key moving averages through recent weeks and remain down sharply year to date, although the company's low-debt, capital-light structure remains a distinguishing strength.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc., headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, is the leading luxury homebuilder in the U.S., serving affluent first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers across more than 60 markets in 24 states. It also offers mortgage, title, and insurance services and has been shifting toward a greater mix of quick move-in (spec) homes and "affordable luxury" price points.
TOL has shown relatively firmer recent momentum. It delivered a record number of homes in its most recent fiscal year and, in its latest reported quarter, grew revenue by a double-digit percentage year over year while diluted EPS rose strongly, supported by a higher average sales price. The company continues to return capital through share repurchases and dividends and is exiting its multifamily (Apartment Living) business to focus on core homebuilding. Still, its backlog has declined, cancellation rates have risen, and management has cited soft demand and affordability headwinds across many markets.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of the strongest-performing AI trading bots from a broader platform that includes hundreds of automated strategies trading thousands of tickers. Because market conditions change, only bots whose recent performance, risk profile, and trading style best fit the current environment earn a place in this featured section. The bots span a range of approaches — differing in timeframe, strategy, statistics, and the set of tickers they trade — so traders can evaluate options that align with their own objectives. Reviewing this page can help investors see which data-driven strategies are currently favored for names such as NVR and TOL.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two builders diverge most clearly on business model and buyer mix. NVR's lot-option approach minimizes capital tied up in land and supports an unusually strong balance sheet, but it leaves the company dependent on third-party lot developers and more exposed to rate-sensitive first-time and move-up demand. TOL carries a more traditional mix of owned and optioned land but serves a more affluent customer base that is generally less sensitive to mortgage-rate swings.
On valuation, TOL trades at a notably lower price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than NVR and pays a dividend, whereas NVR returns capital solely through buybacks. Momentum also differs: NVR has faced steeper earnings declines, margin compression, and downward analyst revisions, while TOL has delivered recent top- and bottom-line growth. On risk, NVR offers lower financial leverage but a premium valuation, while TOL carries a higher beta (a measure of volatility relative to the market) and a shrinking backlog.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — including relative earnings momentum, valuation, buyer mix, and the stability of recent trends — Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward Toll Brothers (TOL). While NVR's asset-light model and net-cash balance sheet are structurally attractive, its sharper earnings decline, margin pressure, and downward analyst revisions suggest less favorable near-term trend consistency. Toll Brothers' more resilient luxury demand, recent revenue and EPS growth, and lower valuation multiple offer comparatively steadier positioning. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current market conditions rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVR is a Buy and TOL is a Hold.
NVR's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVR turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 15 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVR as a result. In 58 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
NVR moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NVR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NVR entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVR's P/B Ratio (4.682) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.847). P/E Ratio (14.677) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.909) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 63 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +4.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.577) is normal, around the industry mean (1.826). P/E Ratio (11.676) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
NVR | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVR's Valuation (68) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (76). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (59). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (55). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| NVR | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 4 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 4 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 56% | 15 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NVR (@Homebuilding) experienced а +9.38% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +4.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +5.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVR is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+5.61% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
Advertisement
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.