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AGCO or CNH or DE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AGCO Corporation (AGCO) vs. CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) vs. Deere & Company (DE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AGCO is focusing on retrofits and its PTx technology partnership, which supports short‑term revenue stability amid a weak farm‑equipment market.
- CNH is battling a steep revenue decline (‑22% YoY Q3) and elevated dealer inventories, but a $550 million cost‑saving program aims to protect margins.
- Deere (DE) faces an unprecedented tractor recall (≈165 k units) and a large FCPA settlement, yet its See & Spray precision‑spraying system is delivering 59% herbicide savings, supporting demand for high‑margin tech.
- All three firms are under pressure from lower commodity prices, higher interest rates, and a slowdown in equipment replacement cycles.
- Tickeron’s AI models currently favor the stock with the most consistent trend and near‑term catalysts – see the Verdict section.
Introduction
Farm‑equipment manufacturers AGCO Corporation (AGCO), CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) and Deere & Company (DE) dominate the global agricultural machinery market. Their shares are closely watched by traders who trade based on commodity cycles, interest‑rate trends, and the rollout of precision‑ag technology. This comparison is aimed at institutional investors, quantitative traders, and retail participants who need a concise, data‑driven view of how each stock is positioned in the current market environment.
AGCO Overview and Recent Performance
AGCO Corporation designs, manufactures and distributes tractors, combines, and specialty equipment under brands such as Fendt, Massey Ferguson and Gleaner. In recent weeks the stock has traded between $132 and $140, reflecting a modest rebound after a 10% decline earlier in the quarter. Market sentiment improved after CEO Eric Hansotia highlighted the company’s $2 billion PTx deal with Trimble, which creates a retrofitting platform for older machines. AGCO’s “FarmerCore” mobile service trucks, announced at its 2024 Tech Days, aim to reduce dealer‑inventory pressure by offering same‑day parts delivery. Analysts note that retrofits are a near‑term revenue tailwind because farmers are buying fewer new units while seeking productivity gains. The firm projects 2024 net sales of about $12.4 billion, down from $14.4 billion in 2023, but expects margin expansion from cost‑discipline and higher‑margin technology services.
CNH Overview and Recent Performance
CNH Industrial N.V. manufactures agricultural and construction equipment under the Case IH, New Holland, and Stan Robinson brands. The latest quarterly release showed consolidated revenue of $4.65 billion, down 22% YoY, and diluted EPS of $0.24, a stark contrast to $0.40 a year earlier. The decline was driven by weaker tractor volumes (‑18% in North America) and a steep drop in combine sales (‑29%). Management confirmed a $550 million cost‑reduction program and a revised 2024 EPS target of $1.05‑$1.15, down from $1.30‑$1.40 previously. Dealer inventories remain elevated, prompting further production cuts. Despite the downturn, CNH’s aggressive margin‑improvement plan and its focus on “right‑sizing” the supply chain are intended to preserve cash flow and position the company for a rebound when farmer balance sheets improve later in the cycle.
DE Overview and Recent Performance
Deere & Company (ticker DE) is the world’s largest producer of tractors and combines. Recent headlines include a nearly $10 million SEC settlement for Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) violations linked to its Wirtgen Thailand subsidiary, and the largest U.S. tractor recall in two decades—about 165 k units—over a brake‑linkage defect. The recall caused a short‑term dip in the share price (‑1.6% after‑hours). On the upside, Deere’s See & Spray precision‑spraying system reported an average 59% herbicide reduction on over 1 million acres in 2024, translating to $15.7 per acre of savings in independent studies. Deere’s earnings for Q3 posted adjusted EPS of $2.38, beating consensus, driven by higher‑margin technology sales even as overall equipment sales remain muted.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
- Business Model: AGCO leans on retrofit services and aftermarket sales; CNH relies on new‑equipment volume and a broad construction portfolio; DE balances large‑scale equipment sales with high‑margin precision‑ag tech.
- Growth Drivers: AGCO’s PTx platform and FarmerCore service trucks; CNH’s cost‑saving program and eventual inventory realignment; DE’s See & Spray adoption and AI‑driven autonomous projects.
- Recent Momentum: AGCO modest price recovery; CNH price pressure from revenue contraction; DE volatility from recall and settlement but supported by tech‑sale momentum.
- Risk Factors: AGCO exposure to retrofitting adoption rates; CNH sensitivity to dealer inventory and global commodity cycles; DE legal risk (FCPA, recall) and brand‑reputation impact.
- Sector Exposure: All three are in the cyclical farm‑equipment segment, but DE also participates in construction equipment, providing a partial diversification hedge.
- Valuation Sensitivity: AGCO trades at a forward‑PE near 10x, reflecting modest earnings growth; CNH’s forward‑PE is compressed below 7x due to earnings decline; DE’s forward‑PE sits around 12x, justified by premium‑tech pricing.
- Market Sentiment: AGCO enjoys neutral‑to‑positive sentiment after the PTx announcement; CNH faces bearish sentiment due to inventory excess; DE’s sentiment is mixed—negative on the recall but positive on precision‑ag adoption.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trends, Tickeron’s AI models assign the highest probability of short‑to‑medium‑term outperformance to AGCO. The logic is threefold: (1) AGCO’s retrofitting business offers recurring revenue while the broader equipment market contracts; (2) its cost‑discipline and FarmerCore service network provide a defensive moat; and (3) the stock has shown the most consistent upward bias over the past four weeks, with a relative strength index (RSI) above 55, indicating momentum without being overbought. CNH’s steep revenue drop and inventory challenges depress its short‑term outlook, while DE’s legal and recall exposure introduce heightened volatility despite strong tech‑sale growth. The AI recommendation is probabilistic—not a guarantee—and investors should weigh individual risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGCO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCNH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and DE’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- AGCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CNH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- DE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGCO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CNH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and DE’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGCO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CNH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- DE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AGCO (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а +3.68% price change this week, while CNH (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +5.29% , and DE (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price fluctuated +7.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was +4.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGCO is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
CNH is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
DE is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (+4.47% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| AGCO | CNH | DE | |
| Capitalization | 8.43B | 13.3B | 157B |
| EBITDA | 1.1B | 2.6B | 11.5B |
| Gain YTD | 12.109 | 17.720 | 25.684 |
| P/E Ratio | 11.23 | 33.59 | 33.06 |
| Revenue | 10.4B | 18.1B | 45.7B |
| Total Cash | 424M | N/A | 8.2B |
| Total Debt | 2.56B | 26.2B | 62.8B |
AGCO | CNH | DE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 78 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 22 Undervalued | 25 Undervalued | 29 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 86 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 55 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 9 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 32 | 46 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AGCO's Valuation (22) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (25) and is in the same range as DE (29). This means that AGCO's stock grew similarly to CNH’s and similarly to DE’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (100) and is significantly better than the same rating for CNH (100). This means that DE's stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s and significantly faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
DE's SMR Rating (46) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (47) and is somewhat better than the same rating for CNH (86). This means that DE's stock grew similarly to AGCO’s and somewhat faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (53) and is in the same range as CNH (55). This means that DE's stock grew similarly to AGCO’s and similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as DE (25) and is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (99). This means that CNH's stock grew similarly to DE’s and significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
| AGCO | CNH | DE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | 3 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 5 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 67% | 13 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 56% |
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CNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CNH has been closely correlated with AGCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CNH jumps, then AGCO could also see price increases.