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APO or BX or CG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. Blackstone (BX) vs. The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap is meaningful: Blackstone leads with roughly $1.24 trillion in assets under management (AUM), Apollo follows near $908 billion, and Carlyle is smallest at about $474 billion.
- Business mix differs sharply: Apollo leans on credit origination and retirement services, Blackstone on diversified real estate, private equity, and credit, while Carlyle emphasizes private equity, global credit, and secondaries.
- Momentum is uneven: Apollo and Blackstone posted strong fee-related earnings growth in their latest reported quarter, while Carlyle's distributable earnings came in slightly below consensus.
- Sentiment diverges: Blackstone shares pulled back despite solid results on private-credit concerns, and Carlyle slipped after a mixed print, highlighting how valuation and narrative shape returns.
- Relative performance matters: These are three ways to express a single theme — institutional demand for private markets — with different risk profiles and catalysts.
Introduction
Apollo Global Management (APO), Blackstone (BX), and The Carlyle Group (CG) are three of the most closely watched publicly traded alternative asset managers. Each generates fees by raising and deploying capital across private equity, credit, real estate, and related strategies. Because they share the same macro drivers — interest rates, deal activity, and the shift of capital into private markets — their stock comparison offers a useful lens on the sector. This analysis is relevant to investors weighing relative performance and market positioning, as well as traders tracking how sentiment and catalysts move these names in different ways despite similar underlying businesses.
APO Overview and Recent Performance
Apollo Global Management operates across asset management and retirement services, anchored by its Athene insurance platform. Its model emphasizes credit origination and spread-related earnings, which provide a relatively durable income stream alongside more cyclical fee-related earnings. In its latest reported quarter, Apollo's total AUM approached $908 billion, up meaningfully year over year, supported by strong inflows and the acquisition of real estate manager Bridge Investment Group. Fee-related earnings grew at a double-digit rate, and management has signaled an ambitious long-term target of reaching $1.5 trillion in AUM. The stock has been supported by these growth drivers, though it remains sensitive to credit spreads, interest-rate expectations, and the pace of origination.
BX Overview and Recent Performance
Blackstone is the world's largest alternative asset manager, with total AUM reaching a record of roughly $1.24 trillion across four segments: private equity, real estate, credit and insurance, and multi-asset investing. In its most recent quarter, distributable earnings rose about 50% year over year, driven by higher fee-related earnings and a pickup in realizations. The firm attracted strong inflows and completed several initial public offerings, while also partnering to acquire a women's-health company in a large transaction. Despite these results, shares faced selling pressure amid broader market concerns about private credit defaults, illustrating how external narrative can weigh on the stock even when fundamentals are firm.
CG Overview and Recent Performance
The Carlyle Group deploys capital across three segments: global private equity, global credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest (its secondaries business). In its latest reported quarter, total AUM rose to about $474 billion, with fee-related earnings up roughly 12% year over year. Growth was led by global credit and AlpInvest, while private equity realizations were lighter than the prior-year period, and distributable earnings per share came in marginally below analyst expectations. Management pointed to a sizable pipeline of signed but unclosed transactions and forecast an acceleration in dealmaking. The shares declined following the report, reflecting the market's focus on near-term realization activity even as recurring fee growth improved.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three firms differ most clearly in scale and revenue composition. Blackstone's diversified platform and $188 billion of unspent capital give it the broadest earnings base, but its size also means growth is more gradual. Apollo's insurance-linked model generates steady spread earnings and has driven faster fee growth, though it carries sensitivity to credit and rate conditions. Carlyle is a more concentrated turnaround story: smaller and more exposed to private equity realizations, but with faster-growing credit and secondaries businesses that are reshaping its fee mix.
On momentum, Apollo and Blackstone showed stronger fee-related earnings growth in recent reporting, while Carlyle's result was more mixed. On risk, all three face valuation sensitivity to interest rates and deal flow, but Blackstone has absorbed added scrutiny around private credit, and Carlyle faces variability in timing performance-fee realizations. Investors seeking diversification and scale may favor Blackstone; those prioritizing growth and yield-like stability may look to Apollo; those seeking a higher-beta turnaround may consider Carlyle.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Apollo Global Management (APO) at present. Apollo combines the most consistent recent growth in fee-related earnings, a durable spread-income base from its retirement services platform, and a clear long-term scaling roadmap — qualities that tend to align with trend-consistency models. Blackstone remains a strong, diversified alternative, but its recent price action has been more range-bound amid credit-related headlines. Carlyle offers turnaround upside but carries more variable realization timing. Accordingly, Apollo appears best positioned on a probabilistic blend of trend stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, though conditions can shift with rates and deal activity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
APO's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for APO moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 27 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 61 cases where APO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APO just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where APO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +3.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APO advanced for three days, in 247 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
APO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APO as a result. In 49 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The 10-day moving average for APO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for APO entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.398) is normal, around the industry mean (2.409). P/E Ratio (39.729) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.173). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.446) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.062) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
BX's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BX turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where BX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BX as a result. In 55 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +3.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BX advanced for three days, in 203 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
BX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BX entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BX's P/B Ratio (9.823) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.409). P/E Ratio (26.391) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.173). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.048) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
CG's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for CG moved out of oversold territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CG as a result. In 43 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +2.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 234 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
CG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.623) is normal, around the industry mean (2.409). P/E Ratio (38.208) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.173). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
APO | BX | CG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 12 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 91 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 88 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 32 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 60 | 72 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 84 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
APO's Valuation (83) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (88) and is in the same range as BX (91). This means that APO's stock grew similarly to CG’s and similarly to BX’s over the last 12 months.
APO's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BX (88) and is somewhat better than the same rating for CG (100). This means that APO's stock grew somewhat faster than BX’s and somewhat faster than CG’s over the last 12 months.
BX's SMR Rating (32) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (59) and is somewhat better than the same rating for APO (88). This means that BX's stock grew similarly to CG’s and somewhat faster than APO’s over the last 12 months.
BX's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (70) and is in the same range as CG (72). This means that BX's stock grew similarly to APO’s and similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as APO (7) and is significantly better than the same rating for BX (84). This means that CG's stock grew similarly to APO’s and significantly faster than BX’s over the last 12 months.
| APO | BX | CG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 69% | 10 days ago 69% | 10 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while BX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and CG’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- APO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- BX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and CG’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- BX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
APO (@Investment Managers) experienced а +1.85% price change this week, while BX (@Investment Managers) price change was +10.66% , and CG (@Investment Managers) price fluctuated +6.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -0.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
APO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
BX is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
CG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-0.72% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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APO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APO has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if APO jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
BX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BX has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BX jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
CG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CG has been closely correlated with TPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CG jumps, then TPG could also see price increases.