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KBH or MHO or TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KB Home (KBH) vs. M/I Homes (MHO) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three are U.S. homebuilders facing the same macro headwinds, but they occupy distinct segments: KBH targets first-time and move-up buyers, MHO spans entry-level to luxury in regional markets, and TOL concentrates on luxury and affluent buyers.
- TOL carries the strongest pricing power and the highest gross margin profile, while KBH and MHO are more exposed to affordability pressure from elevated mortgage rates.
- KBH posted its first backlog increase in four years, a potentially constructive signal despite a roughly 20% year-over-year revenue decline in its latest quarter.
- MHO trades at the lowest valuation multiples but is also the smallest and most concentrated geographically, with downward earnings revisions in recent months.
- Relative performance diverges: TOL has held up comparatively well thanks to affluent, cash-heavy buyers, while KBH has shown marked relative weakness.
Introduction
KB Home, M/I Homes, and Toll Brothers are three publicly traded homebuilders that operate in the same cyclical industry yet serve very different customer bases. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors trying to gauge how the U.S. housing market's affordability squeeze, elevated mortgage rates, and shifting buyer sentiment are being distributed across entry-level, move-up, and luxury segments. Understanding the contrast in business models, margin profiles, and market positioning helps clarify which name may offer more resilient earnings in the current environment and which carries greater sensitivity to rate cycles. The sections below assess each company's recent performance, key drivers, and risk factors on a comparable basis.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KBH, or KB Home, is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, headquartered in Los Angeles and operating across roughly 50 markets with a focus on first-time and first move-up buyers. Its signature built-to-order (BTO) model, which lets buyers personalize homes before construction, now represents nearly three-quarters of deliveries. In recent weeks, KBH has contended with a challenging demand backdrop, as higher mortgage rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader economic headwinds have made prospective buyers more cautious. Its latest quarter showed revenues down about 20% year over year and diluted earnings per share (EPS) well below the prior-year period, though results beat analyst consensus. Notably, ending backlog increased for the first time in four years, and community count grew, which management framed as a foundation for future sales. The stock has underperformed its sector in recent months, reflecting margin compression and investor concern over affordability.
MHO Overview and Recent Performance
MHO, or M/I Homes, is a Columbus, Ohio-based single-family homebuilder serving roughly 17 markets concentrated in the Midwest, Florida, Texas, and the Southeast. It addresses a broad buyer spectrum, from first-time and move-up purchasers to empty-nesters and luxury clients. Over recent quarters, MHO has reported declining year-over-year earnings and revenues, with analysts trimming forward estimates as mortgage rates climbed back above 7%. Management nonetheless highlighted record new contracts and a healthy pre-tax income margin in its mid-year results, alongside a newly authorized $250 million share repurchase program. The company maintains a conservative balance sheet with low debt relative to equity, but its smaller scale, tighter geographic footprint, and heavier reliance on rate-sensitive buyers leave it more exposed to a cooling housing market. MHO trades at a lower valuation than peers, reflecting this elevated cyclical sensitivity.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL, or Toll Brothers, is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, with a geographic footprint spanning high-end communities nationwide and an average delivered home price near or above $1 million. Its affluent customer base, a large share of whom pay in cash, provides a degree of insulation from mortgage-rate volatility that entry-level builders lack. In recent market activity, TOL has reported modestly lower revenues but rising average selling prices and year-over-year growth in net signed contracts, while maintaining the strongest gross margin profile of the three. The company has returned substantial capital to shareholders through buybacks and an increased dividend, supported by solid liquidity and conservative leverage. Analysts have pointed to resilient through-cycle earnings and pricing power, though the stock remains sensitive to wealth effects and has pulled back from its 52-week high alongside the broader homebuilding group.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast among these three names is their exposure to buyer affordability. KBH and MHO lean heavily on first-time and move-up buyers who are most sensitive to mortgage rates, making their order books and margins more vulnerable when borrowing costs rise. TOL, by contrast, serves wealthier, often cash-funded buyers, giving it stronger pricing power and a structurally higher gross margin, though it remains tied to luxury-market wealth effects. In terms of scale, TOL is by far the largest by market capitalization, while MHO is the smallest and most regionally concentrated. Valuation also differs: MHO trades at the lowest earnings multiple, KBH sits in the middle, and TOL commands a premium reflecting its margin consistency. Risk factors diverge as well—KBH faces margin and demand pressure, MHO faces downward estimate revisions, and TOL faces inventory impairment costs and luxury-segment sensitivity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, margin stability, pricing power, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TOL among the three. Its affluent, cash-heavy customer base provides a more resilient earnings stream in a rate-sensitive environment, its margins remain the strongest of the group, and its backlog and order trends have held up comparatively well. KBH presents a potentially improving picture given its first backlog increase in years, but its momentum and margin compression introduce greater uncertainty. MHO offers the most compelling valuation but carries the most concentrated risk. This assessment reflects a probabilistic, data-driven ranking rather than a definitive prediction, and conditions could shift as mortgage rates and buyer sentiment evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
KBH's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for KBH moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KBH as a result. In 61 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KBH just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where KBH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +9.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KBH advanced for three days, in 207 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KBH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
KBH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KBH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.753) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (11.202) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.573) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KBH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KBH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
MHO in +8.71% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 23, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where MHO advanced for three days, in 234 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MHO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 64 cases where MHO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
MHO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MHO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for MHO entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.971) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (10.187) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MHO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.511) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (11.192) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
KBH | MHO | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 72 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 48 Fair valued | 41 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 50 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 70 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 73 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 15 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MHO's Valuation (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (48) and is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that MHO's stock grew similarly to KBH’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (50) and is somewhat better than the same rating for KBH (86). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to MHO’s and somewhat faster than KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (70) and is in the same range as KBH (79). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to MHO’s and similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MHO (73) and is in the same range as KBH (73). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to MHO’s and similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
MHO's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (19) and is in the same range as TOL (26). This means that MHO's stock grew similarly to KBH’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| KBH | MHO | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 74% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | N/A | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | N/A | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 74% | 23 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 65% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KBH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MHO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- KBH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MHO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KBH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MHO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KBH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MHO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 2 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KBH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +8.66% price change this week, while MHO (@Homebuilding) price change was -0.41% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated +4.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
KBH is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
MHO is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.05% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MHO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MHO has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MHO jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.