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MTH or PHM or TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) vs. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Price momentum: MTH showed modest upside in recent weeks, while PHM experienced a short‑term dip after earnings, and TOL posted a modest decline amid broader market weakness.
- Valuation contrast: MTH trades at a low price‑to‑earnings (P/E) multiple (~6‑7), PHM is near the sector average (~12), and TOL sits slightly higher (~10) reflecting premium‑pricing for luxury‑home exposure.
- Sector exposure: All three are homebuilders, but TOL focuses on upscale luxury, MTH targets entry‑level to move‑up buyers, and PHM spans a broad market spectrum from first‑time to active‑adult buyers.
- Risk factors: Inventory levels and mortgage‑rate volatility impact each, but TOL carries higher exposure to premium‑price elasticity, while MTH is more sensitive to affordable‑housing demand.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) and Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) represent three of the largest U.S. homebuilders, each with a distinct market focus. This comparison is relevant for both growth‑oriented traders tracking sector momentum and value‑focused investors assessing relative pricing in a market where mortgage rates and housing affordability dominate sentiment.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation designs and builds single‑family attached and detached homes across 12 states, emphasizing entry‑level and first‑move‑up buyers. The company operates two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services, the latter providing title, escrow and mortgage products to its buyers. In recent weeks, MTH has traded near the low‑to‑mid‑60s USD range, reflecting a bounce from a year‑low in early‑April. The rally is tied to a modest easing of mortgage‑rate concerns and strong demand in Sun Belt markets where Meritage has a sizable land‑bank. Analysts cite the company’s low P/E (~6.5) and solid cash position (over $750 million) as support for a higher near‑term target. However, inventory buildup in the West and a slight slowdown in new‑home starts keep sentiment cautious.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. is a diversified builder with brands that include Pulte, Centex, Del Webb and others, serving a wide buyer spectrum from first‑time homeowners to active‑adult communities. Its Financial Services segment adds mortgage‑banking and title operations. Over the past month, PHM slipped roughly 2‑3% after reporting earnings that missed consensus on net income while revenue held up. The miss was attributed to a slower pace of home sales in the Midwest and higher construction material costs. Despite the dip, the stock remains near its 12‑month average price, buoyed by a P/E of about 12 and a dividend yield near 0.8%. The company’s large balance sheet and diversified geography provide a cushion, but the near‑term outlook hinges on whether the recently announced partnership in Florida can offset the broader market slowdown.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. builds luxury homes and upscale communities, including the Toll Brothers City Living condominium brand. Its business model includes in‑house architectural, engineering, mortgage and smart‑home technology capabilities. In recent weeks, TOL has drifted lower, falling about 1% after an earnings release that showed slightly weaker net income due to higher financing costs and a modest decline in high‑end home pricing. The stock trades at a P/E around 10, reflecting a premium for the luxury segment but also acknowledging the sensitivity of upscale buyers to interest‑rate moves. The company’s strong cash flow (free cash flow > $250 million) and a healthy return on equity (~17%) keep it attractive to investors seeking quality earnings, yet the upside is constrained by the premium‑price elasticity of its core market.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
- Business model: MTH focuses on affordable‑to‑mid‑range homes; PHM offers a broad portfolio from entry‑level to active‑adult; TOL concentrates on luxury homes and high‑margin ancillary services.
- Growth drivers: Land‑bank development in Sun Belt states fuels MTH; geographic diversification and brand extensions drive PHM; premium pricing and upscale amenity trends support TOL.
- Recent momentum: MTH shows modest price recovery; PHM experienced a short‑term dip post‑earnings; TOL is under pressure from luxury‑buyer sensitivity.
- Risk factors: All three face mortgage‑rate volatility and inventory management challenges; TOL is most exposed to premium‑price elasticity, while MTH is more vulnerable to affordability constraints.
- Valuation sensitivity: MTH trades at the lowest P/E, suggesting higher upside if earnings improve; PHM sits near sector averages; TOL commands a modest premium reflecting its luxury niche.
- Market sentiment: Investor sentiment is currently cautious across the sector, but the relative stability of cash flows and dividend yields keeps defensive‑oriented investors interested, especially in PHM and TOL.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trends—consistent cash generation, low valuation multiples, and a modest price bounce—Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a slightly higher probability of outperformance to MTH. The AI factors in the stock’s stronger momentum relative to peers, its attractive P/E, and the ongoing demand in its core affordable‑housing markets. PHM and TOL remain solid choices, especially for dividend‑focused or luxury‑segment strategies, but the AI’s probabilistic ranking favours MTH for the near‑term.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +4.74% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.19% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated -0.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +7.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+7.51% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | PHM | TOL | |
| Capitalization | 4.56B | 22.6B | 12.9B |
| EBITDA | 522M | 2.79B | 1.8B |
| Gain YTD | 4.628 | 1.188 | 2.368 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.47 | 11.45 | 10.48 |
| Revenue | 5.62B | 16.8B | 11.3B |
| Total Cash | 767M | 2.32B | 1.2B |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 2.28B | 2.85B |
MTH | PHM | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 35 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 66 Overvalued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 45 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 54 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 57 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 17 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 49 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (7) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TOL (65) and is somewhat better than the same rating for PHM (66). This means that MTH's stock grew somewhat faster than TOL’s and somewhat faster than PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (48) and is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (79). This means that PHM's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (54) and is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to PHM’s and similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (54) and is in the same range as PHM (57). This means that MTH's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (17) and is in the same range as TOL (28). This means that MTH's stock grew similarly to PHM’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | PHM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | N/A | 3 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 71% | 12 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 26 days ago 60% | 17 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 61% |
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with KBH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then KBH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.