Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: October 13-16, 2026 | JPM, ASML, TSM, UNH, GS, BAC

Key Points

• Banks dominate the October 13-16 calendar, putting net interest income, loan growth, credit costs, trading and investment-banking fees at the center of the market’s first major read on Q3 financial conditions.
• AI infrastructure gets two globally important checkpoints: ASML Holding (ASML) on October 14 and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) on October 15. Their order, capacity, margin and 2027 outlook commentary may matter more than backward-looking headline beats.
• Healthcare expectations diverge sharply. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) enters with raised annual guidance, while UnitedHealth Group (UNH) must show that its Q2 recovery in medical economics and Optum profitability can persist.
• The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is the calendar exception: its October 14 event is the September monthly earnings release, not a conventional Q3 conference-call package.
• Consensus figures remain moving targets. Estimates below use the latest identifiable pre-release consensus, generally through October 7-9; investors should distinguish adjusted EPS from GAAP EPS and, for Prologis (PLD), prioritize core FFO over accounting EPS.

Calendar and estimates

All listed events are expected before the U.S. market opens. Figures are in U.S. dollars per share and U.S. dollars of revenue unless indicated otherwise; ASML’s operating guidance is naturally denominated in euros and TSMC’s in U.S. dollars/New Taiwan dollars.

 

* JPMorgan’s ASML preview put its own EPS forecast at €10.84, 2.6% above consensus, implying consensus near €10.57; U.S.-listed ADR data feeds can show currency-translated figures around $12, so direct comparisons require care. ** For REIT analysis, GAAP EPS can be distorted by depreciation and asset-sale gains; core FFO and same-store operating metrics are more decision-useful.

Financials

The heaviest theme of the week is whether strong capital-markets activity and still-healthy net interest income can overcome a more demanding valuation setup and any normalization in credit. For universal banks, the market will parse NII guidance, deposit betas, loan growth, reserves and net charge-offs; for capital-markets firms, trading and advisory pipelines will be decisive.

Tuesday’s banking bellwethers

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Consensus centers on roughly $5.91 EPS and $51.15 billion of revenue. Q2 was unusually strong—reported EPS was $7.70, or $6.14 excluding significant items, while net revenue reached $58.0 billion; investment-banking revenue rose 45% amid higher fees and equity-investment gains. The Q3 report matters because JPMorgan is the broadest early-cycle test of consumer health, corporate dealmaking and credit: investors should focus on managed NII, card charge-offs, reserve building, markets revenue and management’s expense outlook. Analyst sentiment remains positive but not euphoric: consensus is Buy, with an average target near $372.7 and a $305-$420 range.

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Goldman Sachs (GS)

The latest broad estimate is about $13.30 EPS on $16.86 billion of revenue, although published forecasts vary materially—one preview showed $15.39 and $17.42 billion—highlighting the volatility of marks, underwriting and trading assumptions. Q2 delivered $20.98 EPS and $20.34 billion of revenue against much lower expectations, so the key question is not simply whether Goldman beats but whether investment banking, equities and fixed-income momentum support another upward reset. The analyst consensus is Hold, with an average target around $1,078; that mixed rating profile raises the bar for a clean beat and constructive backlog commentary.

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Wells Fargo (WFC)

Wall Street expects approximately $1.85 EPS and $22.31 billion of revenue after Q2 delivered $2.00 EPS and $22.62 billion of revenue. The central debate is whether balance-sheet growth and operating efficiency can accelerate while credit remains contained; watch NII, average loans, deposit costs, fee income and the expense run rate. Consensus is Moderate Buy/Buy with an average target around $99-$100, and Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight shortly before the report.

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Citigroup (C)

Consensus calls for $2.65 EPS and $23.71 billion of revenue, versus Q2 EPS of $3.15 and revenue of $24.77 billion. Management had indicated mid-single-digit growth in markets revenue and low-single-digit growth in investment banking, making those businesses—as well as expenses, transformation milestones, credit cards and tangible-book-value growth—the main swing factors. Analysts remain constructive: the stock carries a Buy/Moderate Buy consensus and an average target around $151-$153.

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Wednesday’s financial cohort

Bank of America (BAC)

The Street expects about $1.10 EPS and $30.65 billion of revenue after Q2 produced $1.21 and $31.56 billion, respectively. The report will test whether asset sensitivity is translating into durable NII growth without a deterioration in deposit pricing or consumer credit. Investors should watch NII guidance, loan balances, sales-and-trading fees, investment banking and card delinquencies; the bank entered the quarter having beaten consensus in six consecutive reports.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)

Consensus is approximately $2.95 EPS on $19.97 billion of revenue, compared with Q2’s $3.46 and $21.35 billion. The wealth-management engine should provide stability, but the share-price response will likely turn on investment-banking fees, equities trading, net new assets and the wealth segment’s margin. Estimates from other datasets run as high as $3.10 and $20.52 billion, so the precise beat/miss threshold will depend on the data provider investors use.

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BlackRock (BLK)

Analysts look for roughly $14.32 EPS and $7.43 billion of revenue. The prior quarter delivered $13.91 EPS and $7.08 billion of revenue in one widely followed adjusted dataset, both above expectations. Q3 is important because BlackRock’s flows reveal risk appetite across ETFs, active strategies and private markets; investors should scrutinize long-term net inflows, assets under management, base-fee growth, performance fees and the integration/economics of its private-markets expansion.

State Street (STT)

Consensus calls for about $3.67 EPS and $4.03 billion of revenue after Q2’s $3.65 EPS and $4.05 billion of revenue exceeded forecasts. Fee growth, servicing wins, markets revenue, NII and expense discipline will determine whether earnings momentum is structural or merely market-level driven. Recent target cuts alongside a Citi target increase show an active debate over how much of the custody-bank earnings acceleration is already discounted.

Thursday-Friday regional banks

Charles Schwab (SCHW)

Expectations sit near $1.66 EPS and $7.20 billion of revenue, up from Q2’s $1.62 and $7.07 billion. Management previously guided to 17.5%-18.5% full-year revenue growth and a 3.0%-3.1% net interest margin, making cash sorting, client cash balances, asset gathering, NIM and supplemental borrowing the critical indicators. A sustained improvement would reinforce the earnings normalization thesis; disappointment on cash migration or funding costs could quickly compress expectations.

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BNY (BNY)

The Street expects approximately $2.25 EPS on $5.53 billion of revenue. Q2 set a demanding baseline: EPS rose 27% to $2.45, revenue increased 13% to a record $5.7 billion, pre-tax margin reached about 40%, and ROTCE exceeded 31%. Investors need confirmation that securities-services fees, NII and operating leverage remain powerful enough to support management’s raised 10%-11% 2026 revenue-growth outlook.

U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Consensus is $1.32 EPS and about $8.00 billion of revenue. Q2 EPS reached $1.35 and record net revenue reached $7.7 billion, while management raised full-year net-revenue growth guidance to 7%-9%; for Q3 it projected 4%-6% NII growth and 12%-14% fee growth year over year. Payments, capital markets, BTIG contributions, the 0.53% Q2 charge-off ratio and expense synergies will determine whether the diversified fee model earns a higher multiple.

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PNC Financial Services (PNC)

Analysts expect around $4.91 EPS and $6.61 billion of revenue. Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.85 beat consensus as revenue reached $6.88 billion; management then guided Q3 NII up 3%-3.5% sequentially, fee income down 5%-5.5%, adjusted expenses down 2%-3%, and net charge-offs near $225 million. That unusually specific guide makes Q3 a clean test of execution, integration costs and credit discipline.

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Truist Financial (TFC)

Consensus is roughly $1.14 EPS on $5.35 billion of revenue, following Q2 EPS of $1.23 and revenue of $5.31 billion. Investors should weigh NII expansion and expense control against commercial-real-estate and consumer-credit risks, while watching deposit growth, loan pipelines, fee revenue and capital returns. A result near consensus would still imply meaningful year-over-year EPS improvement, but guidance will dictate whether the rerating can extend.

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Technology

ASML Holding (ASML)

ASML is expected to report Q3 net sales around €11.68 billion; JPMorgan projected €10.84 EPS, 2.6% above consensus, against company guidance for €11-€12 billion of sales and 55%-57% gross margin. Q2 revenue was reported at $10.62 billion in the ADR-oriented dataset, and ASML raised its full-year view to €43-€45 billion of sales with 54%-56% gross margin. The decisive items will be net bookings, High-NA EUV demand, China exposure, gross margin and preliminary 2027 commentary: a headline beat without strong orders could disappoint, while a firm backlog and capacity outlook would support the AI-capex narrative.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

Consensus calls for $4.42 per ADR on about $45.44 billion of revenue, broadly matching the company’s $44.6-$45.8 billion sales guide. Q2 revenue was $40.20 billion, up 33.7% year over year; ADR EPS was $4.31 and gross margin reached 67.7%. Q3 guidance targets 65%-67% gross margin and 56%-58% operating margin, while management previously expected full-year dollar revenue growth slightly above 40%. For investors, 2-nanometer ramps, advanced-packaging capacity, AI accelerator demand, overseas-fab dilution and 2027 capex are the crucial signals; the result will influence the entire semiconductor supply chain, not only TSMC.

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Healthcare

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Consensus is near $2.72 adjusted EPS and $25.36 billion of sales. Q2 sales rose 6.6% to $25.31 billion and adjusted EPS was $2.90; management raised 2026 sales guidance to $100.8-$101.4 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $11.60-$11.75. Investors should focus on Innovative Medicine growth, MedTech procedure trends, biosimilar erosion, pipeline readouts and whether the guidance raise survives tariff, currency and execution pressures. The analyst consensus is Buy/Moderate Buy, with average targets in the upper-$270s.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

The consensus bar is approximately $4.12 adjusted EPS on $111.31 billion of revenue. Q2 adjusted EPS of $6.38 significantly exceeded expectations, revenue was $112.03 billion, and the company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $19.50-$20.00 while maintaining revenue guidance above $439 billion. The apparent sequential earnings drop makes the quality of the report especially important: monitor the medical-care ratio, Medicare Advantage membership and margins, Optum Health profitability, risk adjustment and 2027 pricing. Analysts retain a Buy consensus and an average target around $482, but recent target cuts show that confidence in the recovery remains conditional.

Insurance

Progressive (PGR)

Progressive’s October 14 item is its September monthly earnings release, confirmed by the company’s investor calendar and August release—not a standard quarterly call. That distinction matters because the update should reveal monthly net premiums written, policies in force, underwriting profit and combined ratio, allowing investors to build the quarter before a fuller discussion. Q2 revenue was about $23.0 billion and EPS $4.85 in one standardized dataset, while the combined ratio remained exceptionally profitable; investors will test whether pricing, claim severity and growth can coexist as industry competition normalizes.

Travelers Companies (TRV)

Consensus currently clusters around $7.25 EPS and $11.31 billion of revenue, although some services show EPS nearer $6.97. Q2 EPS was $10.04 versus $5.41 expected and revenue reached $12.15 billion, creating a high-quality but difficult comparison. Q3’s stock reaction should hinge on catastrophe losses, the underlying combined ratio, renewal pricing, reserve development and investment income. Analyst sentiment is roughly Hold, with recent targets spanning the mid-$340s to high-$370s, indicating limited agreement about the durability of peak underwriting margins.

Industrials

Fastenal (FAST)

Analysts expect $0.34 EPS and $2.44 billion of revenue, implying about 17% and 14.6% year-over-year growth, respectively. Q2 revenue rose 14.7% to $2.39 billion and EPS was $0.33. Fastenal is an important high-frequency read on U.S. manufacturing: daily sales growth, onsite locations, vending deployments, pricing versus unit volume and gross-margin pressure will indicate whether industrial demand is broadening. Given a trailing P/E above 40 in the cited dataset, the shares may require both a beat and resilient margin commentary.

Real Estate

Prologis (PLD)

The screen shows consensus GAAP EPS of $0.78 and revenue of $2.17 billion, versus Q2 revenue of $2.18 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.13. Investors should avoid overemphasizing GAAP EPS and instead examine core FFO per share, occupancy, cash rent change, lease proposals, development starts, dispositions and the cost of capital. The earnings release will be a timely gauge of logistics-property demand as tenants balance inventory discipline, e-commerce requirements and an evolving supply pipeline.

Investor playbook

A strong banking week would require more than headline EPS beats: investors should look for higher or reaffirmed NII outlooks, benign credit, positive operating leverage and credible fee pipelines. Conversely, beats driven mainly by reserve releases, tax items or volatile marks may not support durable estimate revisions.

For semiconductors, forward commentary will dominate. Strong ASML bookings and a confident TSMC capacity/capex outlook would validate continued AI-infrastructure spending, while softer bookings, packaging bottlenecks or margin dilution from overseas fabs could trigger a broader hardware reset even if Q3 numbers beat.

In healthcare and insurance, operating ratios are the truth tests. UnitedHealth’s medical-care ratio, Progressive’s combined ratio and Travelers’ underlying combined ratio will say more about earnings quality than revenue alone; for J&J, the key issue is whether pharmaceutical and MedTech growth can sustain the raised annual guide.

Finally, estimate dispersion deserves respect. Goldman, ASML, Travelers and several banks show meaningful differences across data providers because of update timing, currencies and adjusted-versus-GAAP definitions. Investors should compare reported figures with the same consensus source used before the release—and should treat management guidance and underlying KPIs as the more durable catalysts.

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