Unmasking IPO Performance: A Walk Through History

When the words 'Initial Public Offering' (IPO) are spoken, they often elicit a sense of excitement and anticipation in the investment community. Yet, how have IPOs performed historically, and what insights can we glean from past market patterns? As a financial analyst, I will dive into these queries, reflecting on IPO performance trends throughout history, with an emphasis on tech sector IPOs reminiscent of the dotcom era.

IPOs: An Overview and Historical Perspective

The IPO realm is a highly complex, dynamic landscape. While many studies have examined IPOs' potential rewards, the conclusions often counter prevailing investor sentiment. Although new listings are generally priced below underwriters' fair value estimations, their post-launch performance often leaves much to be desired.

In the world of IPOs, there are instances of shares doubling or even tripling on the first trading day. Conversely, there are IPOs that begin trading below the initial offering price. For short-term trading, it's a toss-up. However, in the case of a "hot issue" IPO, where demand surpasses available shares, average investors are typically left out in the cold.

Following the initial trading days' excitement, IPO prices often stabilize, and in some cases, drop. When the selling syndicate begins offloading their shares, the market experiences an influx of supply, often accompanied by reduced hype around the company. Various studies have found that average IPOs lag behind the market for up to 2 ½ years. Hence, despite the thrill an IPO may bring, evidence supporting their long-term outperformance remains elusive.

IPO investments carry inherent speculative risk due to the lack of price history and publicly accessible company ledgers. And while historical statistics may tempt you with attractive returns from certain strategies, it is vital to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Revisiting the Tech IPO Market: A Déjà vu of the Dotcom Bubble?

Picture a technology stock completing its IPO, with the founders witnessing the shares skyrocket far beyond the initial offering price. The instinctive assumption is that this event took place during the dotcom boom of the late 90s. Yet, recent market trends suggest that the 90s fervor is making a comeback.

The year 2020 observed substantial first-day trading pops in IPOs, especially within the tech sector. Further fueling this trend is the rise in Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) IPOs, which, flush with capital, are delving deeper into the private market, acquiring pre-IPO companies at increasingly early stages.

This market enthusiasm for tech IPOs stirs an eerie sense of familiarity for those who experienced the dotcom bubble. The dotcom burst of the 90s and early 2000s inflicted significant losses on investors and constrained capital for tech companies that developed over the subsequent decade. Fast forward 20 years, we witness a resurgence of phenomenal valuations on minimal revenue, accompanied by a frenzy for IPO stocks and pre-IPO companies.

This could be perceived as a magical era where valuations seem to defy fundamentals without consequences. However, discerning investors, remembering the late 90s, will see these as warning signals.

Navigating the IPO Landscape

Historically, IPOs have demonstrated a pattern of erratic short-term performance, often followed by a period of underperformance against the market. Particularly, the recent IPO market's frothiness, especially in the tech sector, strongly echoes the dotcom bubble era, raising concerns about potential market volatility.

Therefore, it's paramount for investors to tread carefully, base decisions on comprehensive analysis rather than speculative hype, and remain cognizant that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. After all, as the saying goes, "those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

Summary

Many studies have investigated the benefits of purchasing IPOs, and the results might surprise you.

Despite the fact that new issues tend to be priced at a discount from the price that underwriters have decided is a fair valuation, their performance after the initial frenzy tends to be lackluster. While most investors think that IPOs are good investments, this is not exactly true.

There are IPOs that have doubled or tripled in price during the first day, and there are IPOs that opened trading below the original IPO price (and anything in between). For short term trading, it can go either way, but if the IPO is a “hot issue,” meaning that there are more indications of interest than there are shares to fill the orders, the average investor will not be able to procure IPO shares anyway.

The prices may spike with demand in the first few days, but the fires tend to go out after a few months. When the selling syndicate finally starts offloading their shares, the market will have more supply that it did before, and with less hype surrounding the company.

After an even longer period of time, some studies have found that the average IPO underperformed the market for up to 2 ½ years. While the IPO may seem like a very exciting opportunity, even several months out in the secondary market, there is still no evidence to suggest that these stocks are going to do any better than the rest of the stocks you could have bought.

Considering that these companies have no price history or publicly available company ledgers to compare their current performance with, they should be considered highly speculative.

Even if you find historical statistics suggesting that such-and-such strategy is sure to net you some huge gains with IPOs, remember that past performance offers no guarantee of future results.

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