ABBV vs MRK vs LLY Stock Comparison: Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Outlook
Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), and Merck (MRK) all reported strong Q4 2025 earnings, but the market reacted differently to each, reflecting variations in growth profiles, product concentration, and sector dynamics. AbbVie delivered Q4 revenue of $16.62 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with full-year revenue reaching $61.2 billion, an 8.6% increase. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.71, surpassing consensus, though shares dipped following the report amid ongoing Humira concerns. Merck posted Q4 sales of $16.4 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.04, slightly above expectations. However, its 2026 guidance—projecting revenue of $65.5–67 billion and EPS of $5–5.15—fell short of investor expectations due to acquisition charges and generics pressures.
Eli Lilly dominated the quarter with revenue of $19.3 billion, up 43%, driven by blockbuster products Mounjaro and Zepbound. Non-GAAP EPS rose 42% to $7.54, and the company issued guidance for 2026 of $80–83 billion in revenue and EPS of $33.50–35, signaling robust growth. These results underscore the stark contrast between Lilly’s concentrated obesity and diabetes momentum versus AbbVie and Merck’s exposure to patent cliffs and legacy drug pressures.
AbbVie’s performance highlights its resilience in immunology. Skyrizi and Rinvoq drove growth and offset Humira declines, resulting in net revenues of $16.62 billion for the quarter—beating the $16.39 billion consensus—and adjusted EPS of $2.71 despite a $0.71 per share IPR&D charge. Full-year revenue reached a record $61.2 billion, with adjusted EPS of $10. AbbVie’s guidance for 2026 projects adjusted EPS of $14.37–14.57 and revenues around $67 billion. Shares, however, fell roughly 3.8% post-earnings due to investor concerns over Humira erosion and competitive pressures in oncology.
Merck showed steady performance with Q4 sales of $16.4 billion, up 5% (4% ex-FX), and non-GAAP EPS of $2.04. Full-year revenue totaled $65 billion, while Keytruda grew 5% to $8.4 billion. Gardasil sales fell 34% to $1.03 billion due to weakness in China. For 2026, the company projects revenue of $65.5–67 billion and EPS of $5–5.15, which includes a $9 billion acquisition-related charge. The outlook was received cautiously, as generics, IRA-related pricing reforms, and international dynamics weigh on growth.
Eli Lilly’s Q4 results stood out for explosive growth, with revenue surging 43% to $19.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $7.54. Mounjaro generated $7.4 billion (+110% YoY) and Zepbound $4.2 billion (+123%), fueled primarily by strong volume growth, which offset modest U.S. price declines. Full-year revenue reached $65.2 billion (+45%). Guidance for 2026 targets $80–83 billion in revenue and EPS of $33.50–35. Shares gained post-earnings on the strength of obesity and diabetes leadership and continued momentum in incretin therapies.
From a market perspective, AbbVie demonstrates strong earnings quality through its immunology portfolio, with growth in Skyrizi and Rinvoq offsetting Humira declines. Merck remains stable but is exposed to Gardasil weakness in China and upcoming generic competition. Lilly leads in growth, benefiting from incretin therapies with less near-term patent risk, though capacity and pricing pressures remain considerations. Valuation comparisons show AbbVie and Merck trading at forward P/E ratios around 14–15x, reflecting their defensive profiles, while Lilly trades at over 50x forward P/E, highlighting its growth premium.
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor Lilly due to its superior earnings momentum, strong revenue growth projection, and dominant position in the obesity market. AbbVie offers stability with a raised EPS guide, while Merck appears more conservative given its cautious outlook. Overall, Lilly holds the probabilistic edge for trend stability and near-term upside, though investors should continue monitoring pipeline catalysts and sector dynamics across all three companies.
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Disclaimers and Limitations
Momentum Indicator for ABBV turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ABBV saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on June 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ABBV just turned positive on June 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where ABBV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ABBV advanced for three days, in of 361 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 348 cases where ABBV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ABBV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ABBV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ABBV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ABBV's P/B Ratio (243.902) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (19.576). ABBV's P/E Ratio (112.750) is considerably higher than the industry average of (26.499). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.634) is also within normal values, averaging (4.388). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.494) is also within normal values, averaging (3.942).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a research-based pharmaceutical company
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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