ABBV vs MRK vs LLY Stock Comparison: Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Outlook
Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), and Merck (MRK) all reported strong Q4 2025 earnings, but the market reacted differently to each, reflecting variations in growth profiles, product concentration, and sector dynamics. AbbVie delivered Q4 revenue of $16.62 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with full-year revenue reaching $61.2 billion, an 8.6% increase. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.71, surpassing consensus, though shares dipped following the report amid ongoing Humira concerns. Merck posted Q4 sales of $16.4 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.04, slightly above expectations. However, its 2026 guidance—projecting revenue of $65.5–67 billion and EPS of $5–5.15—fell short of investor expectations due to acquisition charges and generics pressures.
Eli Lilly dominated the quarter with revenue of $19.3 billion, up 43%, driven by blockbuster products Mounjaro and Zepbound. Non-GAAP EPS rose 42% to $7.54, and the company issued guidance for 2026 of $80–83 billion in revenue and EPS of $33.50–35, signaling robust growth. These results underscore the stark contrast between Lilly’s concentrated obesity and diabetes momentum versus AbbVie and Merck’s exposure to patent cliffs and legacy drug pressures.
AbbVie’s performance highlights its resilience in immunology. Skyrizi and Rinvoq drove growth and offset Humira declines, resulting in net revenues of $16.62 billion for the quarter—beating the $16.39 billion consensus—and adjusted EPS of $2.71 despite a $0.71 per share IPR&D charge. Full-year revenue reached a record $61.2 billion, with adjusted EPS of $10. AbbVie’s guidance for 2026 projects adjusted EPS of $14.37–14.57 and revenues around $67 billion. Shares, however, fell roughly 3.8% post-earnings due to investor concerns over Humira erosion and competitive pressures in oncology.
Merck showed steady performance with Q4 sales of $16.4 billion, up 5% (4% ex-FX), and non-GAAP EPS of $2.04. Full-year revenue totaled $65 billion, while Keytruda grew 5% to $8.4 billion. Gardasil sales fell 34% to $1.03 billion due to weakness in China. For 2026, the company projects revenue of $65.5–67 billion and EPS of $5–5.15, which includes a $9 billion acquisition-related charge. The outlook was received cautiously, as generics, IRA-related pricing reforms, and international dynamics weigh on growth.
Eli Lilly’s Q4 results stood out for explosive growth, with revenue surging 43% to $19.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $7.54. Mounjaro generated $7.4 billion (+110% YoY) and Zepbound $4.2 billion (+123%), fueled primarily by strong volume growth, which offset modest U.S. price declines. Full-year revenue reached $65.2 billion (+45%). Guidance for 2026 targets $80–83 billion in revenue and EPS of $33.50–35. Shares gained post-earnings on the strength of obesity and diabetes leadership and continued momentum in incretin therapies.
From a market perspective, AbbVie demonstrates strong earnings quality through its immunology portfolio, with growth in Skyrizi and Rinvoq offsetting Humira declines. Merck remains stable but is exposed to Gardasil weakness in China and upcoming generic competition. Lilly leads in growth, benefiting from incretin therapies with less near-term patent risk, though capacity and pricing pressures remain considerations. Valuation comparisons show AbbVie and Merck trading at forward P/E ratios around 14–15x, reflecting their defensive profiles, while Lilly trades at over 50x forward P/E, highlighting its growth premium.
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor Lilly due to its superior earnings momentum, strong revenue growth projection, and dominant position in the obesity market. AbbVie offers stability with a raised EPS guide, while Merck appears more conservative given its cautious outlook. Overall, Lilly holds the probabilistic edge for trend stability and near-term upside, though investors should continue monitoring pipeline catalysts and sector dynamics across all three companies.
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Disclaimers and Limitations
ABBV in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on February 12, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ABBV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ABBV as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ABBV just turned positive on January 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where ABBV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ABBV moved above its 50-day moving average on February 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ABBV advanced for three days, in of 367 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ABBV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ABBV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ABBV entered a downward trend on February 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ABBV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ABBV's P/B Ratio (243.902) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (9.384). ABBV's P/E Ratio (98.675) is considerably higher than the industry average of (22.964). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.554) is also within normal values, averaging (2.286). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.780) is also within normal values, averaging (3.967).
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General Information
a research-based pharmaceutical company
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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