Qualcomm (QCOM) Earnings Preview: Modest Growth Expected Amid AI Momentum
Key Takeaways
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Q1 FY2026 revenue is expected at $12.18 billion, up 4.35% YoY from $11.67 billion in Q1 FY2025.
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Consensus non-GAAP EPS stands at $3.40, slightly below last year’s $3.41, reflecting handset market headwinds.
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Qualcomm’s Q4 guidance called for $11.8–$12.6 billion revenue and $3.30–$3.50 EPS, aligning closely with analyst expectations.
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Key areas of focus include handset demand, automotive and IoT growth, and on-device AI adoption.
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QCOM shares are down over 10% YTD, trading near $152 ahead of the February 4 release.
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Qualcomm has a history of beating EPS estimates, with eight consecutive beats prior to a Q1 FY2025 miss.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Qualcomm’s Q1 FY2026 report, covering the period ended December 28, 2025, arrives amid a pivotal shift in the semiconductor landscape. While handset growth moderates, the company is expanding in automotive, IoT, and AI-enabled devices.
Q4 FY2025 revenue of $11.27 billion (+10% YoY) was driven by premium Android handsets and record non-handset contributions. Investors are watching carefully as Qualcomm navigates U.S.-China tensions, potential modem share losses at Samsung and Apple, and memory supply constraints. The report will also provide insight into Qualcomm’s diversification toward $22 billion in automotive and IoT revenues by FY2029, a key metric in a market balancing AI hype against cyclical handset risks.
Earnings Expectations
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Revenue: $12.18 billion, within guidance of $11.8–$12.6 billion, representing ~4.35% YoY growth.
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Non-GAAP EPS: $3.40, slightly below $3.41 last year and within the $3.30–$3.50 guided range.
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Segment outlook:
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QCT (handsets/IoT): Expected at record levels; handset revenue offset by seasonal IoT softness.
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Automotive: Flat to slightly up sequentially following record Q4 results.
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Margins: QTL margins projected 74–78%, EBT margins 30–32%.
Qualcomm has historically beat revenue by 3–5% in recent quarters, though Q1 FY2025 marked an EPS miss, emphasizing the need to monitor cyclical handset trends.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment is cautious heading into earnings: shares are down 10.7% YTD and 13% in the last month, underperforming the S&P 500 and tech peers. Analyst consensus remains Moderate Buy, with targets of $190–$193, implying ~25% upside. Swing Trader: Tracking Dip Trends in Industrial Stocks - Trading Results, 60 min, (TA)
Risks include weaker China demand, modem share losses to competitors, and premium Android handset supply constraints. Implied volatility suggests a ±7% post-earnings move. Positive surprises in AI or automotive segments could trigger a rebound, while conservative guidance may pressure the stock further.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors
Post-Q1, investors will focus on:
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Q2 FY2026 guidance and full-year projections, particularly amid anticipated handset shipment declines.
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Diversification progress: Automotive targeting $8B annual revenue by 2029; IoT targeting $14B.
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On-device AI: Snapdragon-enabled wearables and PCs are ramping; AI inference for data centers begins FY2026.
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Customer wins: Partnerships like Hyundai Mobis SDV, and modem share expectations at Apple (~20% CY2026) and Samsung.
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Margins and costs: R&D capitalization, 13–14% tax rates, and supply chain impacts (substrates, memory).
Upcoming catalysts include the Alphawave acquisition, AI200 chip rollout, and non-handset revenue growth toward the $22B combined automotive/IoT target by 2029. Sustained expansion in non-mobile segments may help offset cyclical handset pressures, supporting long-term growth momentum.
Disclaimers and Limitations
QCOM sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for QCOM moved below the 200-day moving average on February 25, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QCOM as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for QCOM entered a downward trend on February 17, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where QCOM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QCOM just turned positive on February 17, 2026. Looking at past instances where QCOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCOM advanced for three days, in of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
QCOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.386) is normal, around the industry mean (9.255). P/E Ratio (27.845) is within average values for comparable stocks, (152.387). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.580) is also within normal values, averaging (1.444). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.368) is also within normal values, averaging (29.936).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. QCOM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QCOM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of wireless communication systems
Industry Semiconductors
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